December 2022

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

pretty sure we’ve done this already in the past five years.

 

We’ve had a string of winters where it just shuts down for two weeks.

 

either way, with the shut out in December coupled with this, this is a throwaway winter in terms of snowfall…unless something unprecedented occurs

This is already a statistically unusual start to winter as Bluewave points out below. I understand what the stats say, but this wasn’t a shutout pattern the way some of the other Decembers were where nobody in the northeast really saw snow (except the mountains I’m sure). The storm tracks missed the coastal plain of here and New England, but there were storms and there was snowfall in addition to BN anomalies for much of the month. That’s quite different to a shutout 50 degree month where snow was metaphysically impossible to begin with. Many of the years with no snow in Dec that went on to precede terrible snow-less winters had a much warmer pattern.

Respectfully I’m going to disagree on calling the death knell on this winter. I have of course no way of knowing how things will end up, but let’s wait at least until we’re on the other end of this warm up and see what the pattern flip brings, along with the long range guidance at that time. If things are looking grim, sure. 

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of December are averaging     39degs.(35/43) or +5.

Month to date is    37.1[-2.4].          December should end at     37.8[-1.3].

Reached 35 here yesterday.

Today:     42-45, wind w., m. sunny, 39 tomorrow AM.

Week 1 of January maybe  45(41/50) or +12.     Apparently nothing BN {H+L<67} till the 10th.      Week 2   Normal to slightly BN.        Week 3 should be Action Jackson , if we are lucky.

2/3+ of US is AN for the next 15 days as indicated here:       No strong break for us showing yet.

35*(68%RH) here at 6am-basically 35/36 all night.       34* at 7am.       36* at 10am.      38* at 11am.      39* at Noon.     40* at 12:30pm.      Reached 48* at 3pm.        45* at 6pm.

A Bum's Rush for +300m.      Gets close again January 04.

 

[donsutherland1]

Under bright sunshine, the temperature surged into the middle and upper 40s today. Tomorrow should be a similarly mild day. By the end of the week, temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in much of the area. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures across the region. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal.

Although some of the guidance suggests that stratospheric warming could commence during the second week of January, skill scores at that range, even before considering whether the warming would be sufficient to displace or split the polar vortex, are low. Thus, while the second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, a cold outcome is not assured. Indeed, the latest EPS weeklies illustrate the idea that a cold outcome isn't assured.

It appears extremely likely that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +28.08 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.210 today.

On December 26 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.897 (RMM). The December 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.961 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal).

 

[TWCCraig]

With how close some observation sites came to reaching 50 degrees today, I think it's pretty likely that tomorrow will reach and/or exceed 50 degrees.

[CIK62]

Yes. Heights tomorrow are 100% assured of exceeding 5760m, say 5780m---numbers typical of somewhere in Florida at this time of the year.

Finally signs of ridging out west---but month is nearly half over and half wasted---and this is not guaranteed.       Now at this very time Jan. 13---our chance of being below 5400m---where you can talk about snow>>>>just 10%.   Not shown.

    

[Roger Smith]

If NYC was 37.1 to the 27th then it could get as high as 38.2 for the monthly mean which is still below the 1991-2020 normal but ranks t58 out of the 154 Decembers in the records. 38.3 would rank t52nd and 38.4 t48th, so there have been quite a few Decembers in this range. Without the four cold days 24th-27th the average of the rest of the month (assuming it warms up as expected) would be close to 40.0 F which ranks t24th. Of course the other way of looking at it is that an average of 20.0 or lower would be much colder than any December (1876 average was 24.9, 1917 was 25.0), but probably more to the point, one of the colder four day intervals in December for quite some time. It has also been quite a wet month, approaching 5.7 to 6.0" of rain by the end of the month possibly. So basically we could say it has been a mild, wet month with a cold interval late 23rd fading out by 27th. 

The year looks like it will finish up either t14 or t17 with such recent years as 2001, 2002, 2011, 2017. Other years not far from it include 13th place 1999 and 19th place 1973, 20th place 1983. It will rank a bit warmer than 2018 and 2019, and cooler than 2020 or 2021.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will become partly sunny. It will be mild.  High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 49°

Temperatures will be above to much above average through at least the coming weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.1°; 15-Year: 42.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 42.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.9°; 15-Year: 43.9°

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of December are averaging     44degs.(39/50) or +10.

Month to date is      37.2[-2.2].           December should end at      37.9[-1.2].

Reached 48 here yesterday.

Today:    47-50, wind sw., p. sunny,  45 tomorrow AM.

I'm Back.............        This is as likely as converting a 7---10 Split.

We had a better chance for 1" in December...............................

39*(60%RH) at 6am.      38* at 7am.      40* at 9am.       42* at 10am.     43* at Noon.      48* at 2pm.      Reached 53* 3pm-4pm.

[SACRUS]

 

Today's record:

 

Highs;

EWR: 71 (1984)
NYC: 70 (1984)
LGA: 68 (1984)
New Brnswck: 66 (2008)
JFK: 65 (1984)
ISP: 65 (1984)

 

Lows:
LGA: 12 (2017)
JFK: 12 (2017)
ISP : 11 (2017)
EWR: -2 (1933)
New Brnswck: -2 (1933)
NYC: -6 (1917)

 

[Rjay]

 

[nycsnow]

Rain doesn’t seem to be a big deal on Saturday anymore 

[Stormlover74]

15 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Rain doesn’t seem to be a big deal on Saturday anymore 

But right during the ball drop

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Today's record:

 

Highs;

EWR: 71 (1984)
NYC: 70 (1984)
LGA: 68 (1984)
New Brnswck: 66 (2008)
JFK: 65 (1984)
ISP: 65 (1984)

 

Lows:
LGA: 12 (2017)
JFK: 12 (2017)
ISP : 11 (2017)
EWR: -2 (1933)
New Brnswck: -2 (1933)
NYC: -6 (1917)

 

Funny how all but one of the highs is nearly 40 years ago which is outside the current climate change induced averages. It's also interesting that the 3 lows inside the heat island are in the current higher averages. 

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

 

Hey honey, we need some groceries. - Yeah I know but I can't get out of the house. 

[nycsnow]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

But right during the ball drop

12z def cut back though 

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 50 here, currently 46 as of 5PM.

[lee59]

Heat Island in full affect last night, Central Park low 40 degrees, 26 here.

[CIK62]

The next 7 days at +18 or more !!!!.     52degs.(48/57)...............      Do not know what database the Climo #'s are derived from---but that makes it +20.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  12/29/2022  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 30| SAT 31| SUN 01| MON 02| TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05|FRI CLIMO
 N/X  44  57| 48  56| 49  58| 44  55| 48  59| 56  61| 50  52| 38 26 39
 TMP  45  54| 51  53| 51  52| 46  51| 50  56| 58  58| 52  47| 39      
 DPT  33  40| 44  49| 43  34| 35  37| 41  46| 51  50| 45  36| 27      
 CLD  CL  CL| PC  OV| OV  PC| CL  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV      
 WND   6   6|  3   5|  7   9|  7   4|  3   5|  8   6|  5   9| 13      
 P12   2   0|  1  42| 87   9|  5   6| 15  26| 40  43| 45  47| 42999999
 P24       2|     42|     87|      6|     26|     53|     69|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   1|  2   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   2|       |         
 Q24       0|      1|      2|      0|      0|      2|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  4   2|  1   1|  1   1|  3   3|  2   1|  2      
 T24        |  1    |  4    |  2    |  2    |  5    |  4    |  7      
 PZP   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  1   3|  4   5|  6   6|  6   5|  5      
 PSN   0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   2|  1   3|  0   4|  2   8| 15      
 PRS   4   4|  2   1|  1   0|  2   2|  3   3|  4   3|  4   3| 10      
 TYP   R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R   R|  R      
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         

[donsutherland1]

At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 51° five days after the thermometer registered 7°. Rapid rebounds in temperatures have become commonplace. Some recent examples:

January 8, 2014: 8°; January 11: 58°
February 14, 2016: -1°; February 16: 54°
January 7, 2018: 8°; January 11: 53°
January 21, 2019: 4°; January 23: 52°
January 31, 2019: 2°; February 2: 53°

Very mild air now covers the region. Highs will generally reach the 50s in most places in coming days.

The first week of January will see a continuation of the mild regime. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal. The second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, but a cold outcome is not assured. Overall, a warmer than normal January appears to be likely.

It is virtually certain that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31st. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +29.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.217 today.

On December 27 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.711 (RMM). The December 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.900 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (1.2° below normal).

 

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, joeweatherman said:

you forgot the blizzard December 19-20 2009? 

 

the boxing day blizzard December 26-27 2010

 

in the last 14 years only winter 2015-16 receives no measurable snowfall through December 31st!

Lol wut?

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, joeweatherman said:

you forgot the blizzard December 19-20 2009? 

 

the boxing day blizzard December 26-27 2010

 

in the last 14 years only winter 2015-16 receives no measurable snowfall through December 31st!

I meant 14th year out of the 1869-2022 climate record, not 14th consecutive year. 

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of December are averaging     47degs.(42/53) or +13.

Month to date is     37.4[-1.9].        December should end at   38.0[-1.1].

Reached 53 here yesterday.

Today:   53-56, wind w., variable clouds, 48 tomorrow AM.

GFS snorts Pot and sips Rum:     20" of Snow in the next 15 days while Ensemble says only 50% chance of at least 1"!

43*(62%RH) here at 6am.       42* at 7am.      45* at 10am.       49* at Noon.      50* at 12:30pm.      52* at 1pm.       54* at 1:30pm.

Reached 57* at 3pm.        55* at 4pm.      51* at 6pm.        Back up to 55* at 8pm.         52* at 10pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be fair and unseasonably mild.  High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 56°

Temperatures will be above to much above average into at least the middle of next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 40.9°; 15-Year: 41.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.4°; 15-Year: 42.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.7°; 15-Year: 43.8°

[bluewave]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At Central Park, the temperature topped out at 51° five days after the thermometer registered 7°. Rapid rebounds in temperatures have become commonplace. Some recent examples:

January 8, 2014: 8°; January 11: 58°
February 14, 2016: -1°; February 16: 54°
January 7, 2018: 8°; January 11: 53°
January 21, 2019: 4°; January 23: 52°
January 31, 2019: 2°; February 2: 53°

 

50°+ days have been getting closer to days with lows below 20° during the winter. So it makes it easier for big temperature swings. We have also been seeing more snowstorms near 50° days. This pattern started to become more pronounced around 2005.

 

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2022-12-23	58	8
2022-12-24	15	7

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2022-02-14	25	16
2022-02-15	30	16
2022-02-16	49	28
2022-02-17	68	49
2022-02-18	63	27

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2020-12-19	32	20
2020-12-20	40	31
2020-12-21	46	37
2020-12-22	46	38
2020-12-23	45	36
2020-12-24	59	43
2020-12-25	61	29

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2019-01-30	35	6
2019-01-31	16	2
2019-02-01	21	11
2019-02-02	34	16
2019-02-03	53	33
2019-02-04	61	41
2019-02-05	65	44

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2018-01-05	19	9
2018-01-06	13	6
2018-01-07	18	5
2018-01-08	31	17
2018-01-09	44	30
2018-01-10	43	30
2018-01-11	53	41
2018-01-12	61	44
2018-01-13	58	19

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2017-12-19	55	45
2017-12-20	51	34
2017-12-21	39	32
2017-12-22	50	35
2017-12-23	48	38
2017-12-24	41	36
2017-12-25	38	28
2017-12-26	28	23
2017-12-27	24	17
2017-12-28	18	11
2017-12-29	22	11
2017-12-30	23	17
2017-12-31	21	9

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2017-01-07	26	20
2017-01-08	25	16
2017-01-09	23	14
2017-01-10	46	21
2017-01-11	52	42
2017-01-12	66	47
2017-01-13	62	32

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2016-02-13	22	6
2016-02-14	15	-1
2016-02-15	35	13
2016-02-16	54	35
2016-02-17	39	35
2016-02-18	36	27
2016-02-19	39	24
2016-02-20	61	39
2016-02-21	55	44
2016-02-22	52	38

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2016-01-04	36	14
2016-01-05	29	11
2016-01-06	41	25
2016-01-07	46	31
2016-01-08	46	31
2016-01-09	47	40
2016-01-10	59	40

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2015-01-04	56	41
2015-01-05	49	21
2015-01-06	22	19
2015-01-07	23	9
2015-01-08	21	8
2015-01-09	33	19
2015-01-10	23	16
2015-01-11	37	18

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2014-02-22	54	40
2014-02-23	54	43
2014-02-24	44	27
2014-02-25	33	24
2014-02-26	31	20
2014-02-27	34	14
2014-02-28	24	9

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2014-01-03	18	9
2014-01-04	29	8
2014-01-05	40	27
2014-01-06	55	19
2014-01-07	19	4
2014-01-08	22	9
2014-01-09	32	22
2014-01-10	37	30
2014-01-11	58	37
2014-01-12	54	38
2014-01-13	51	37
2014-01-14	52	44

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2013-12-21	65	51
2013-12-22	71	61
2013-12-23	64	42
2013-12-24	42	26
2013-12-25	31	19

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2013-02-15	55	37
2013-02-16	41	31
2013-02-17	32	18
2013-02-18	35	17

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2013-01-19	51	30
2013-01-20	53	30
2013-01-21	32	26
2013-01-22	27	13
2013-01-23	20	11
2013-01-24	22	12
2013-01-25	24	13
2013-01-26	27	15
2013-01-27	34	19
2013-01-28	36	29
2013-01-29	49	36
2013-01-30	59	39
2013-01-31	61	30

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2012-01-03	33	15
2012-01-04	27	13
2012-01-05	40	27
2012-01-06	53	35
2012-01-07	62	46

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2011-02-09	29	15
2011-02-10	29	22
2011-02-11	37	19
2011-02-12	40	30
2011-02-13	46	28
2011-02-14	58	37
2011-02-15	37	25
2011-02-16	48	26
2011-02-17	63	46
2011-02-18	67	46
2011-02-19	54	23
2011-02-20	40	21
2011-02-21	37	24
2011-02-22	36	16

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2010-01-24	50	32
2010-01-25	57	49
2010-01-26	49	35
2010-01-27	39	31
2010-01-28	42	20
2010-01-29	23	16
2010-01-30	20	13
2010-01-31	30	14

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2009-02-05	23	12
2009-02-06	32	15
2009-02-07	50	28
2009-02-08	58	38
2009-02-09	45	33
2009-02-10	50	35
2009-02-11	65	45

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2008-12-15	67	48
2008-12-16	58	30
2008-12-17	42	32
2008-12-18	42	36
2008-12-19	37	29
2008-12-20	31	22
2008-12-21	37	25
2008-12-22	27	13

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2008-02-05	52	38
2008-02-06	68	41
2008-02-07	49	38
2008-02-08	45	35
2008-02-09	44	37
2008-02-10	44	15
2008-02-11	24	10
2008-02-12	31	17

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2008-01-02	38	17
2008-01-03	20	12
2008-01-04	36	16
2008-01-05	43	32
2008-01-06	50	36
2008-01-07	62	45
2008-01-08	64	53
2008-01-09	64	47

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2006-12-01	70	49
2006-12-02	49	39
2006-12-03	46	35
2006-12-04	41	31
2006-12-05	37	29
2006-12-06	49	31
2006-12-07	53	26
2006-12-08	29	18

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2006-02-15	56	36
2006-02-16	59	40
2006-02-17	58	32
2006-02-18	35	15
2006-02-19	30	15

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2006-01-15	32	16
2006-01-16	32	16
2006-01-17	44	26
2006-01-18	58	36
2006-01-19	47	34
2006-01-20	61	42
2006-01-21	63	38

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2005-02-15	56	46
2005-02-16	54	35
2005-02-17	38	31
2005-02-18	31	18
2005-02-19	32	16

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2005-01-13	59	38
2005-01-14	66	34
2005-01-15	34	26
2005-01-16	31	27
2005-01-17	28	18
2005-01-18	18	9
2005-01-19	26	9
2005-01-20	30	20
2005-01-21	20	9
2005-01-22	25	6
2005-01-23	26	9
2005-01-24	24	8
2005-01-25	33	20
2005-01-26	37	17
2005-01-27	18	9
2005-01-28	22	5

 

[IrishRob17]

59/40 out there, what a day. 

[jm1220]

Gorgeous afternoon-61. 

[winterwx21]

60 degrees here. Beautiful. 

[donsutherland1]

61 in Central Park and both LaGuardia and Newark.

[LoboLeader1]

Torch here at 60F.

[SACRUS]

62 here and very close to records in the metro areas.

 

 1984 still tops (records)

New Brnswck: 73 (1984)
NYC: 65 (1984)
JFK: 64 (1984)
ISP: 64 (1984)
EWR: 63(1984)
LGA: 63 (1984

[SI Mailman]

Working in short sleeves on December 30th. I’ll take it