December 2022

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

I guess my last post didn’t fit the narrative. 

[Rjay]

26 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

I guess my last post didn’t fit the narrative. 

You seem to think people can control mother nature.  So if someone roots for a certain type of weather and people die from it, I guess it's partly that person's fault?  

[Rjay]

This weather forum would be boring as hell if people rooted for 70 and sunny every day.  

[Nibor]

20 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This weather forum would be boring as hell if people rooted for 70 and sunny every day.  

There are a few here that unironically root for that. 

[MJO812]

Buffalo

 

What a scene 

[Roger Smith]

I didn't see the post in question, but nobody's rooting for death or destruction, we can however share in the awe at the power of nature and I hope the political climate doesn't overly modulate this into yet another thing we're not allowed to do or think because of any (faint signal at most) human contribution to these weather events, which are not new, you can read about the hardships faced by settlers in the Midwest in February and March of 1843 after a storm of perhaps equal severity (on a slightly different trajectory) that crossed the lower Great Lakes on Jan 31. ... Also I feel that weather forums have an additional impact to the official sources of information and warnings about these storms, and can assist in preparing the public for the challenges of approaching severe weather events. To know that something is coming has to be of some value in preventing death and injury, even if perhaps there is little we can do to reduce damage (although in advance of a strong windstorm or a flood, people can for example remove loose objects from their property, and park their cars in strategic locations less likely to experience damage). It's interesting that there was perhaps a similar refusal to deal with the reality of the tornado as a weather phenomenon, wasn't it the case that before about 1945, the tornado was considered some sort of taboo word? I'm not sure where I picked up that impression or if there's any truth to it. 

--------------------

I was actually coming in to post a more mundane factoid, while updating my files I noticed that a daily rainfall record (1.83") had been set on Dec 23rd, replacing 1.61" from 1913. That took 1913 from 8 to 7 records but still in second place to 1983, and inflated the modest total of 2022 to just two (which is the most likely outcome for any given year out of 154 years). The previous record was back in July. Also new to the books, a record high minimum of 54 on Dec 7th edged past the tie shared by 1951, 1956 at 53F. 

All daily records and discussions of yearly record events can be found in a thread I have in the climate change forum here, it deals first with Toronto's 182 year record, then switches over to NYC, so if you happen to go there, the NYC material starts around the end of page one of the thread. My NYC data base is just one of the many benefits we all derive from the work and the insights of Don Sutherland. The Toronto data base can only be blamed on me, however.

 

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Buffalo

 

What a scene 

Truly awful. A real tragedy.

Ive spent a lot of time in Buffalo. There are some green sprouts of resurgence downtown. But in general, the place has a feel of a city who's best days are well behind it. Flat as a board and very subject to the whims of Lake Erie and wind, the weather could be surprisingly sunny and beautiful, but often features prolonged, depressingly awful weather.

This hasnt gotten a ton of coverage yet due to Xmas. I imagine today, the true scope of this weather tragedy will be wall to wall coverage

[wdrag]

NYC reservoir system now less than 5% below normal. Drought concerns eroding a bit?

[CIK62]

The last 6 days of December are averaging    37degs.(32/42) or +3.

Month to date is     37.8[-2.0].        December should end at    37.7[-1.4] or +1.8 from the 30 Year Normal in effect during the 1960's.

Reached 28  here yesterday.

Today:    27-30, wind w., increasing clouds, 26 tomorrow AM.

GFS claiming an average T of   48(43/53)  +14  for the 11 days    Dec. 29 thru Jan. 08.    eke!

   Here is why.      Just look along 74W.   What do you not see?   lol.

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

 

20*(57%RH) here at 6am---basically all night at 20*.     21* at 9am.      25* at Noon.      Reached 30* at 3pm.       28* at 6pm.

[bluewave]

This was our first overperforming cold in a while. It lead to the 3rd coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas combination on record. The high of 15° on the 24th was the 3 coldest high temperature in NYC since 1991.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25	Missing Count
1	1872-12-25	9.8	0
2	1983-12-25	11.3	0
3	2022-12-25	16.0	0
4	1878-12-25	17.3	0
5	1989-12-25	17.8	0
6	1892-12-25	18.5	0
-	1876-12-25	18.5	0
7	1980-12-25	19.0	0
-	1906-12-25	19.0	0
8	1896-12-25	19.5	0
9	1870-12-25	19.8	0

 

Minimum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Rank	Value	Ending Date
1	10.0	1994-01-19
2	13.0	2018-01-06
3	14.0	2019-01-21
4	15.0	2022-12-24
-	15.0	2016-02-14
-	15.0	2004-01-10
-	15.0	2003-02-16
-	15.0	1994-01-20
-	15.0	1994-01-16
5	16.0	2019-01-31
-	16.0	2009-01-16

[LibertyBell]

On 12/25/2022 at 8:20 AM, bluewave said:

That was a cold JFM after a mild December. 50°+ days have been getting closer to days with lows below 20° during the winter. So it makes it easier for big temperature swings. We have also been seeing more snowstorms near 50° days. This pattern started to become more pronounced around 2005.

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2022-12-23	58	8
2022-12-24	15	7

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2022-02-14	25	16
2022-02-15	30	16
2022-02-16	49	28
2022-02-17	68	49
2022-02-18	63	27

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2020-12-19	32	20
2020-12-20	40	31
2020-12-21	46	37
2020-12-22	46	38
2020-12-23	45	36
2020-12-24	59	43
2020-12-25	61	29

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2019-01-30	35	6
2019-01-31	16	2
2019-02-01	21	11
2019-02-02	34	16
2019-02-03	53	33
2019-02-04	61	41
2019-02-05	65	44

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2018-01-05	19	9
2018-01-06	13	6
2018-01-07	18	5
2018-01-08	31	17
2018-01-09	44	30
2018-01-10	43	30
2018-01-11	53	41
2018-01-12	61	44
2018-01-13	58	19

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2017-12-19	55	45
2017-12-20	51	34
2017-12-21	39	32
2017-12-22	50	35
2017-12-23	48	38
2017-12-24	41	36
2017-12-25	38	28
2017-12-26	28	23
2017-12-27	24	17
2017-12-28	18	11
2017-12-29	22	11
2017-12-30	23	17
2017-12-31	21	9

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2017-01-07	26	20
2017-01-08	25	16
2017-01-09	23	14
2017-01-10	46	21
2017-01-11	52	42
2017-01-12	66	47
2017-01-13	62	32

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2016-02-13	22	6
2016-02-14	15	-1
2016-02-15	35	13
2016-02-16	54	35
2016-02-17	39	35
2016-02-18	36	27
2016-02-19	39	24
2016-02-20	61	39
2016-02-21	55	44
2016-02-22	52	38

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2016-01-04	36	14
2016-01-05	29	11
2016-01-06	41	25
2016-01-07	46	31
2016-01-08	46	31
2016-01-09	47	40
2016-01-10	59	40

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2015-01-04	56	41
2015-01-05	49	21
2015-01-06	22	19
2015-01-07	23	9
2015-01-08	21	8
2015-01-09	33	19
2015-01-10	23	16
2015-01-11	37	18

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2014-02-22	54	40
2014-02-23	54	43
2014-02-24	44	27
2014-02-25	33	24
2014-02-26	31	20
2014-02-27	34	14
2014-02-28	24	9

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2014-01-03	18	9
2014-01-04	29	8
2014-01-05	40	27
2014-01-06	55	19
2014-01-07	19	4
2014-01-08	22	9
2014-01-09	32	22
2014-01-10	37	30
2014-01-11	58	37
2014-01-12	54	38
2014-01-13	51	37
2014-01-14	52	44

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2013-12-21	65	51
2013-12-22	71	61
2013-12-23	64	42
2013-12-24	42	26
2013-12-25	31	19

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2013-02-15	55	37
2013-02-16	41	31
2013-02-17	32	18
2013-02-18	35	17

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2013-01-19	51	30
2013-01-20	53	30
2013-01-21	32	26
2013-01-22	27	13
2013-01-23	20	11
2013-01-24	22	12
2013-01-25	24	13
2013-01-26	27	15
2013-01-27	34	19
2013-01-28	36	29
2013-01-29	49	36
2013-01-30	59	39
2013-01-31	61	30

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2012-01-03	33	15
2012-01-04	27	13
2012-01-05	40	27
2012-01-06	53	35
2012-01-07	62	46

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2011-02-09	29	15
2011-02-10	29	22
2011-02-11	37	19
2011-02-12	40	30
2011-02-13	46	28
2011-02-14	58	37
2011-02-15	37	25
2011-02-16	48	26
2011-02-17	63	46
2011-02-18	67	46
2011-02-19	54	23
2011-02-20	40	21
2011-02-21	37	24
2011-02-22	36	16

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2010-01-24	50	32
2010-01-25	57	49
2010-01-26	49	35
2010-01-27	39	31
2010-01-28	42	20
2010-01-29	23	16
2010-01-30	20	13
2010-01-31	30	14

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2009-02-05	23	12
2009-02-06	32	15
2009-02-07	50	28
2009-02-08	58	38
2009-02-09	45	33
2009-02-10	50	35
2009-02-11	65	45

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2008-12-15	67	48
2008-12-16	58	30
2008-12-17	42	32
2008-12-18	42	36
2008-12-19	37	29
2008-12-20	31	22
2008-12-21	37	25
2008-12-22	27	13

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2008-02-05	52	38
2008-02-06	68	41
2008-02-07	49	38
2008-02-08	45	35
2008-02-09	44	37
2008-02-10	44	15
2008-02-11	24	10
2008-02-12	31	17

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2008-01-02	38	17
2008-01-03	20	12
2008-01-04	36	16
2008-01-05	43	32
2008-01-06	50	36
2008-01-07	62	45
2008-01-08	64	53
2008-01-09	64	47

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2006-12-01	70	49
2006-12-02	49	39
2006-12-03	46	35
2006-12-04	41	31
2006-12-05	37	29
2006-12-06	49	31
2006-12-07	53	26
2006-12-08	29	18

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2006-02-15	56	36
2006-02-16	59	40
2006-02-17	58	32
2006-02-18	35	15
2006-02-19	30	15

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2006-01-15	32	16
2006-01-16	32	16
2006-01-17	44	26
2006-01-18	58	36
2006-01-19	47	34
2006-01-20	61	42
2006-01-21	63	38

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2005-02-15	56	46
2005-02-16	54	35
2005-02-17	38	31
2005-02-18	31	18
2005-02-19	32	16

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2005-01-13	59	38
2005-01-14	66	34
2005-01-15	34	26
2005-01-16	31	27
2005-01-17	28	18
2005-01-18	18	9
2005-01-19	26	9
2005-01-20	30	20
2005-01-21	20	9
2005-01-22	25	6
2005-01-23	26	9
2005-01-24	24	8
2005-01-25	33	20
2005-01-26	37	17
2005-01-27	18	9
2005-01-28	22	5

I thought it was the 05-06 winter that started this new pattern, looks like it started a bit earlier than that!

The mild/snowy pattern is a new one, as our winters used to be either cold/snowy, cold/dry, cold/rainy, mild/rainy or mild/dry

 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was our first overperforming cold in a while. It lead to the 3rd coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas combination on record. The high of 15° on the 24th was the 3 coldest high temperature in NYC since 1991.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25	Missing Count
1	1872-12-25	9.8	0
2	1983-12-25	11.3	0
3	2022-12-25	16.0	0
4	1878-12-25	17.3	0
5	1989-12-25	17.8	0
6	1892-12-25	18.5	0
-	1876-12-25	18.5	0
7	1980-12-25	19.0	0
-	1906-12-25	19.0	0
8	1896-12-25	19.5	0
9	1870-12-25	19.8	0

 

Minimum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Rank	Value	Ending Date
1	10.0	1994-01-19
2	13.0	2018-01-06
3	14.0	2019-01-21
4	15.0	2022-12-24
-	15.0	2016-02-14
-	15.0	2004-01-10
-	15.0	2003-02-16
-	15.0	1994-01-20
-	15.0	1994-01-16
5	16.0	2019-01-31
-	16.0	2009-01-16

Nice to see the usual suspects on this list-- 1980, 1983, 1989 and now this year.

Going back to 1980, what were our coldest December highs and lows, Chris? I think 1980 had the only low below 0.....did any of them have highs in the single digits or low teens?  Thanks!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was our first overperforming cold in a while. It lead to the 3rd coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas combination on record. The high of 15° on the 24th was the 3 coldest high temperature in NYC since 1991.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25	Missing Count
1	1872-12-25	9.8	0
2	1983-12-25	11.3	0
3	2022-12-25	16.0	0
4	1878-12-25	17.3	0
5	1989-12-25	17.8	0
6	1892-12-25	18.5	0
-	1876-12-25	18.5	0
7	1980-12-25	19.0	0
-	1906-12-25	19.0	0
8	1896-12-25	19.5	0
9	1870-12-25	19.8	0

 

Minimum 1-Day Mean Max Temperature 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
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Rank	Value	Ending Date
1	10.0	1994-01-19
2	13.0	2018-01-06
3	14.0	2019-01-21
4	15.0	2022-12-24
-	15.0	2016-02-14
-	15.0	2004-01-10
-	15.0	2003-02-16
-	15.0	1994-01-20
-	15.0	1994-01-16
5	16.0	2019-01-31
-	16.0	2009-01-16

wow January 2019 had an underrated cold spell, 14 for the high on the 21st and then 16 on the 31st?  That's the only twofer on the list and right behind January 1994 which had a threefer (10 for the high on the 19th, and 15 on the 16th and the 20th.)  There was another arctic shot closer to the end of the month when we hit 0, but there was a cutter right behind that so the high was 32 at midnight (first time I can recall a low of 0F and a high of 0C lol) and 55 the next day with strong SE gales that matched the temperature in gusts with a high of 55!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Truly awful. A real tragedy.

Ive spent a lot of time in Buffalo. There are some green sprouts of resurgence downtown. But in general, the place has a feel of a city who's best days are well behind it. Flat as a board and very subject to the whims of Lake Erie and wind, the weather could be surprisingly sunny and beautiful, but often features prolonged, depressingly awful weather.

This hasnt gotten a ton of coverage yet due to Xmas. I imagine today, the true scope of this weather tragedy will be wall to wall coverage

There's also a lot of corruption going on in Buffalo in terms of infrastructure contracts they've been handing out....but that doesn't explain this tragedy, this was an extreme weather event for them.  The latest numbers I read were 40 dead from this storm and 17 of them in NY.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Buffalo

 

What a scene 

I remember there were people trapped in cars, buses and trains in NYC during the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard but not this kind of death toll (I don't remember what the death toll was but it was very low from what I recall?)

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

A steady moderation of temperatures will commence tomorrow. By the end of the week, temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in much of the area. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures across the region.

It appears increasingly likely that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0". Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +17.59 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.297 today.

On December 23 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.917 (RMM). The December 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.799 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.6° (1.5° below normal).

 

wow Don, so of the 8 cases that saw 30" or more of snowfall the most was 32.8"?  That means there were 8 cases packed into the narrow margin of 30-32.8?  That's pretty amazing.  I wonder how many were el nino vs la nina vs neutral?

edit-- you said 8% out of 13 so that would be only 1 case haha.....

Better to use number of total cases rather than percentages when the sample size is so small.  I just did this in my head for a rough idea....so it's just 1 case of 30"+ 6 total cases of 20"+ and 4 cases of under 10"?

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will increase. It will be another cold day.  High temperatures will reach the upper 20s and lower 30s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 29°

Newark: 31°

Philadelphia: 31°

It will turn noticeably milder tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 42.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.2°; 15-Year: 43.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.5°; 15-Year: 44.5°

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow Don, so of the 8 cases that saw 30" or more of snowfall the most was 32.8"?  That means there were 8 cases packed into the narrow margin of 30-32.8?  That's pretty amazing.  I wonder how many were el nino vs la nina vs neutral?

edit-- you said 8% out of 13 so that would be only 1 case haha.....

Better to use number of total cases rather than percentages when the sample size is so small.  I just did this in my head for a rough idea....so it's just 1 case of 30"+ 6 total cases of 20"+ and 4 cases of under 10"?

 

8% of such winters, not 8 cases. So, yes, it was just 1 case. While the sample size is small, there's probably enough data to suggest that the outcome favors a winter with below normal snow (not a guarantee, but that's where things are leaning).

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

8% of such winters, not 8 cases.

Yes I edited my post to give the total number of samples of each as I feel that is a better way to express it than percentages when the sample size is so small.

13 total cases

1 case of 30"+

6 cases of 20"+

4 cases of under 10"

(this also infers 3 cases between 10-20")

Looks like our best realistic hope now is to somehow get near average snowfall (which I consider between 20-29")

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, Rjay said:

My temps was 14 degrees from 11 straight hours at one point.   In the mid 20s today.  Merry Christmas to those who celebrate.  

I wonder what the record is to maintain the exact same temperature (record number of consecutive hours.)  I have to assume it happened when it was warm, humid and (perhaps) foggy?  Near a stationary front?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

Caribou still at +6 for December as they went +10 and NYC -25 yesterday. So the south based block pushed down into New England this month. Very unusual to have such a spread between NYC and Northern New England.

 

 

I think the most visual way to explain it is the extreme warmth (fire) that has been afflicting the Arctic for so many years has now finally reached the extreme northeastern part of the US.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

NYC reservoir system now less than 5% below normal. Drought concerns eroding a bit?

Most years they do a significant water release going into the cold season, they didn't do that this year because levels were already at or below where they needed to be post release. We've had close enough to normal precip since then so the system has maintained the needed levels. The trick now is getting enough snow and rain to bring them up to, or close to, full as we get to spring. 

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, bluewave said:

I believe it’s the only winter month in NYC when the first half had  top 10 warmth followed by top 10 cold in the second part.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15	Missing Count
1	2007-01-15	46.4	0
2	1932-01-15	44.0	0
3	1950-01-15	43.6	0
4	1907-01-15	43.5	0
5	1998-01-15	43.3	0
6	2020-01-15	42.7	0
7	2005-01-15	42.2	0
8	1937-01-15	42.1	0
9	1930-01-15	41.7	0
10	1890-01-15	41.4	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jan 16 to Jan 31	Missing Count
1	1888-01-31	16.8	0
2	1977-01-31	19.6	0
3	1961-01-31	20.5	0
4	2005-01-31	21.1	0
-	1948-01-31	21.1	0
5	1920-01-31	21.2	0
6	2004-01-31	21.3	0
7	1936-01-31	21.5	0
8	1935-01-31	21.9	0
9	1918-01-31	22.2	0
10	2003-01-31	22.4	0
-	1940-01-31	22.4	0

lol the average temperature in the second half of the month (21.1) was exactly half of what it was in the first half of the month (42.2).....funny thing is I don't remember any of that warmth, all I remember from that month is the big snowstorm.

 

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

There's also a lot of corruption going on in Buffalo in terms of infrastructure contracts they've been handing out....but that doesn't explain this tragedy, this was an extreme weather event for them.  The latest numbers I read were 40 dead from this storm and 17 of them in NY.

 

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I remember there were people trapped in cars, buses and trains in NYC during the Boxing Day 2010 blizzard but not this kind of death toll (I don't remember what the death toll was but it was very low from what I recall?)

 

You had several factors 

1) Exceedingly strong winds. These winds crippled the power grid. This lead many to be without heat compounding a very dangerous situation

2) Extremely heavy snow w/ whiteout conditions leading to roads that immediately became impassible. The city went from 2 inches of rain to blinding snow in a very short period of time. Unprecedented. 

3) Bone chilling cold. We're not talking 25-30 degrees and heavy snow. We're talking single digits and exceedingly dangerous wind chills (Hurricane force winds) 

4) Emergency Response grinded to a halt. The snow was so bad that reportedly every fire truck in Buffalo was stranded. This was reportedly the first time in history that the Buffalo FD could not respond to calls. For several hours a complete stop on response was forced to be implemented. 

5) People being people and not realizing the danger. This led to people becoming stranded and/or injured. See point 4. 

6) Cars stranded became tombs. Running the heat lead to CO dangers while leaving it not running led to death by extreme cold. 

There are more factors, but these are the most glaring which I can see

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

You had several factors 

1) Exceedingly strong winds. These winds crippled the power grid. This lead many to be without heat compounding a very dangerous situation

2) Extremely heavy snow w/ whiteout conditions leading to roads that immediately became impassible. The city went from 2 inches of rain to blinding snow in a very short period of time. Unprecedented. 

3) Bone chilling cold. We're not talking 25-30 degrees and heavy snow. We're talking single digits and exceedingly dangerous wind chills (Hurricane force winds) 

4) Emergency Response grinded to a halt. The snow was so bad that reportedly every fire truck in Buffalo was stranded. This was reportedly the first time in history that the Buffalo FD could not respond to calls. For several hours a complete stop on response was forced to be implemented. 

5) People being people and not realizing the danger. This led to people becoming stranded and/or injured. See point 4. 

6) Cars stranded became tombs. Running the heat lead to CO dangers while leaving it not running led to death by extreme cold. 

There are more factors, but these are the most glaring which I can see

Yep, I believe this is the dreaded worst case scenario.  Actually in some ways it reminds me of the Blizzard of 1888.  I wonder how well NYC would handle that if it happened in modern times?  Maybe better because of buried power lines?  I wonder if Buffalo's power lines are buried or are they overhead?

The more I think about it, the heavy rain to heavy snow scenario, the sharp drop in temps to near 0, hurricane force winds and very heavy long duration snow scenario does remind me of the Blizzard of 1888 too.

 

[gravitylover]

Mostly overhead. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Nice to see the usual suspects on this list-- 1980, 1983, 1989 and now this year.

Going back to 1980, what were our coldest December highs and lows, Chris? I think 1980 had the only low below 0.....did any of them have highs in the single digits or low teens?  Thanks!

 

 

This low max of only 15° made the top 10 coldest going back to 1869. The 7° minimum was the 12th coldest. But this will be one of the warmest Decembers to have such a cold low max and min. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Max Temperature	December Average Temperature
1	1917	2	25.0
2	1880	4	26.4
3	1884	7	33.6
4	1942	8	31.1
5	1871	9	29.0
6	1883	10	31.6
7	1919	11	30.2
8	1933	12	32.7
-	1872	12	26.7
9	1983	13	35.2
-	1962	13	31.5
10	2022	15	37.8
-	1914	15	31.6
-	1876	15	25.0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917	-13	0
2	1933	-6	0
-	1880	-6	0
3	1942	-4	0
4	1884	-3	0
5	1871	-2	0
6	1980	-1	0
-	1919	-1	0
-	1883	-1	0
7	1875	1	0
8	1914	3	0
-	1876	3	0
9	1983	4	0
-	1962	4	0
-	1872	4	0
10	1988	5	0
-	1955	5	0
11	1989	6	0
-	1909	6	0
12	2022	7	6
-	1921	7	0
-	1874	7	1

[Volcanic Winter]

I feel like I woke up to a second Xmas morning with this massive Bluewave data dump. 

Thanks man, I always spend a long time going over the temperature data you share and ponder different things / go on diversions looking up further details on specific winters and periods. 

The total scope and variation of our weather here in this area is fascinating. It is remarkably clear though, how the record low and high minimum max temperatures are clearly from a different era. I just don’t believe the NYC / NJ area will ever see another period with high temps in the low single digits and lows well negative. What would it even take to get there? Sure this current cold surge wasn’t in Jan during peak climo, but it was very clearly a powerful front with significant arctic air behind it. How much stronger could it get to force temps down even further?

What else would factor in to produce even colder temps? Seems like we just about maxed out upon what is possible, though that is hardly scientific or anything other than a meaningless point of speculation. 

What else is remarkably clear; it takes an awful lot to produce BN departures these days, though without this current surge being bookended by pure torches in the beginning and end of the month would’ve probably gone a long way to producing a more significant departure. We’re not even going to finish Dec below normal relative to an earlier 30 year average, I gather. Now Jan will face a similar issue even if the remainder of the month is cold to very cold.

Regardless, here’s to hoping we didn’t just experience all of the winter of 2023…in 2022. 

[MJO812]

Still snowing in Buffalo

 

https://buffalowebcam.com/live-webcams/buffalo-ny-elmwood-ave-mr-pizza

 

Death toll in Buffalo is now 27 and 48  countrywide over the weekend.

[psv88]

Ready for the torch. My holiday inflatable is ruined. Rain froze it solid and when it went to inflate it ripped