SACRUS Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 2:03 PM, LibertyBell said: Tony can you post the max wind gusts for these sites alongside too? Thanks! Expand Sure thing. It would be nice to see a quick period of rain changing to wet then drier snow, even though it wont accumulate or amount too much. Thats whats happening near Harrisburg and perhaps can push its way here before the precip tapers off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 2:05 PM, SACRUS said: Sure thing. It would be nice to see a quick period of rain changing to wet then drier snow, even though it wont accumulate or amount too much. Thats whats happening near Harrisburg and perhaps can push its way here before the precip tapers off. Expand Yes, I'm hoping for a nice snow squall for us! Maybe even enough to whiten the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 1:53 PM, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don! Amazing stat. Goes to show that a good pattern does not guarantee snowfall. IMO just as impressive as February 2018 where we had accumulating snow in an absolute furnace. Expand It is remarkable. This would be a rare event. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 2:09 PM, donsutherland1 said: It is remarkable. This would be a rare event. Expand Don you said there is some lag with these indices? What is the maximum latest time one could get a snowfall and have it be associated with this block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Nashville -2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 2:20 PM, LibertyBell said: Don you said there is some lag with these indices? What is the maximum latest time one could get a snowfall and have it be associated with the block? Expand It could be a week later. Afterward, it's difficult to associate it with the blocking. P.S. Buffalo has seen the passage of the Arctic cold front. There is currently heavy lake effect snow with 1/8 mile visibility. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 2:22 PM, donsutherland1 said: It could be a week later. Afterward, it's difficult to associate it with the blocking. P.S. Buffalo has seen the passage of the Arctic cold front. There is currently heavy lake effect snow with 1/8 mile visibility. Expand On what date is the blocking projected to end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1.87" rainfall here last 24 hours. Was 56 at 5am and currently 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 2:22 PM, LibertyBell said: On what date is the blocking projected to end? Expand Near the start of January or just afterward, if the ensembles are correct. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 2:37 PM, donsutherland1 said: Near the start of January or just afterward, if the ensembles are correct. Expand Hopefully we see a resurgence later in the winter, that we capitalize on this time. Such a strong episode of blocking already does suggest a likely recurrence, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 1:49 PM, donsutherland1 said: None. The record low for the 11 prior Decembers with a -4 AO is 0.5" in December 1978. Expand Yeah, this is also the first December with an AO reading of -4 or lower to link up with the SE Ridge. Decembers in -4 or lower daily AO composite 2010…2009…2000…1995…1978…1976…1968…1966…1963…1962…1950 https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 So the SST’s have been elevated for years over prior averages, what caused this linking to the WAR to occur now and not at other times? Is it the actual magnitude of the SST’s this year? Is it a poor omen for the future of negative NAO / AO patterns or perhaps more of just an anomalous occurrence with this one? If this were to become a recurrent feature of -NAO regimes going forward I would worry we’re currently entering an era of snow doldrums… Hopefully not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 4:00 PM, Volcanic Winter said: So the SST’s have been elevated for years over prior averages, what caused this linking to the WAR to occur now and not at other times? Is it the actual magnitude of the SST’s this year? Is it a poor omen for the future of negative NAO / AO patterns or perhaps more of just an anomalous occurrence with this one? If this were to become a recurrent feature of -NAO regimes going forward I would worry we’re currently entering an era of snow doldrums… Hopefully not. Expand We needed one of the most positive December +PNA patterns on record in 2020 to overcome that south based block and produce the double digit snowstorm in NYC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 4:00 PM, Volcanic Winter said: So the SST’s have been elevated for years over prior averages, what caused this linking to the WAR to occur now and not at other times? Is it the actual magnitude of the SST’s this year? Is it a poor omen for the future of negative NAO / AO patterns or perhaps more of just an anomalous occurrence with this one? If this were to become a recurrent feature of -NAO regimes going forward I would worry we’re currently entering an era of snow doldrums… Hopefully not. Expand Yeah who knows. If I were a betting man I would say we would rake in the snowfall the next time we have a -4SD AO. Of course opinions vary, in the New England forum the METS are adamant it was all bad luck and timing and flow nuances. Others think it's permanent. Yet others believe will stay this way until the water temps cool on the east coast. Finally there are some that think the water temps are permanent and things will never be the same. All we can do is wait and watch. Time will tell. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Can someone explain exactly what went wrong when we had such blocking? Bad SE ridge orientation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 4:24 PM, mattinpa said: Can someone explain exactly what went wrong when we had such blocking? Bad SE ridge orientation? Expand The block linked up to the WAR and pushed the trough axis / storm track too far west into the Lakes. From my perspective it looks less like a wholesale pattern failure and more like a series of small misfortunes that cost us the storms. I’m most interested in seeing if we can shake the upcoming unfavorable PAC and get the block back in place for a round two at some point in mid to late January. I just can’t let myself believe this is going to be a skunk winter off bad luck in what otherwise was a good Dec (from pattern / temp perspective). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 4:46 PM, Volcanic Winter said: The block linked up to the WAR and pushed the trough axis / storm track too far west into the Lakes. From my perspective it looks less like a wholesale pattern failure and more like a series of small misfortunes that cost us the storms. Expand Yeah that's the New England forum Mets thoughts. Ironically we can use the darn WAR for the mid week system. So we are now rooting for the WAR to flex. One too east. One too west. Our luck. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 4:24 PM, mattinpa said: Can someone explain exactly what went wrong when we had such blocking? Bad SE ridge orientation? Expand The much warmer Gulf Stream circulation to our east looks like the reason the SE Ridge is linking up with the -AO more often. The Pacific side is nearly identical to the colder storm track run from last Thursday. So that leaves the models underestimating the SE Ridge influence from 8-10 days out. New run Old run 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 3:49 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, this is also the first December with an AO reading of -4 or lower to link up with the SE Ridge. Decembers in -4 or lower daily AO composite 2010…2009…2000…1995…1978…1976…1968…1966…1963…1962…1950 https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii Expand much less blue overall. probably related to the shrinking polar vortex 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 5:15 PM, forkyfork said: much less blue overall. related to the shrinking polar vortex Expand Yeah on the upper level maps I looked at for the next two weeks it looks like no cold air at all on our side of the globe. Even Canada looks warm. What’s happening exactly to the vortex? Displaced to Asia? This is something I don’t understand as well. Thanks Forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 5:19 PM, Volcanic Winter said: Yeah on the upper level maps I looked at for the next two weeks it looks like no cold air at all on our side of the globe. Even Canada looks warm. What’s happening exactly to the vortex? Displaced to Asia? This is something I don’t understand as well. Thanks Forky. Expand all the cold got exhausted to north america and there's just less cold to go around these days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 5:14 PM, bluewave said: The much warmer Gulf Stream circulation to our east looks like the reason the SE Ridge is linking up with the -AO more often. The Pacific side is nearly identical to the colder storm track run from last Thursday. So that leaves the models underestimating the SE Ridge influence from 8-10 days out. New run Old run Expand spot on Bluewave as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 GEFS had a tad more precip for the mid week event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 2:37 PM, donsutherland1 said: Near the start of January or just afterward, if the ensembles are correct. Expand ah and the warmth will actually get here before that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 5:14 PM, bluewave said: The much warmer Gulf Stream circulation to our east looks like the reason the SE Ridge is linking up with the -AO more often. The Pacific side is nearly identical to the colder storm track run from last Thursday. So that leaves the models underestimating the SE Ridge influence from 8-10 days out. New run Old run Expand Wasn't the Gulf Stream supposed to be slowing down which is why we're getting much bigger snowstorms-- or is that only for January onwards lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Cool looking line approaching LI now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 4:50 PM, EastonSN+ said: Yeah that's the New England forum Mets thoughts. Ironically we can use the darn WAR for the mid week system. So we are now rooting for the WAR to flex. One too east. One too west. Our luck. Expand This is the way it usually happens, having had this for years, you need everything to be perfect for these parts, it's why you either want to be farther to the north or up in the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 6:00 PM, bkviking said: Cool looking line approaching LI now Expand Severe Tstorm warning until 1:15 60 mph winds and 3/4 inch hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 On 12/23/2022 at 5:58 PM, LibertyBell said: Wasn't the Gulf Stream supposed to be slowing down which is why we're getting much bigger snowstorms-- or is that only for January onwards lol? Expand Yeah, a slowing Gulf Stream warms the waters off the East Coast and cools the SSTs south of Greenland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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