December 2022

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

SAD is a legitimate and serious disorder; in fact. when summers are cloudy and rainy, as I think 89 was, people can get a summer version of it. Far more people get depressed over cold and snow than are happy about it.

snow actually makes people feel better than just cloudy and cold.

snow is bright so it simulates the effects of sunlight and it actually feels warmer when it's snowing than it does when it's dry and cold.

cloudy and humid summers are the worst

 

 

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Didn't Cheyenne record their alltime lowest ever temp at -42?

 

Casper did.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Take a walk man. Cmon

I'll blow away

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

From 4 am to 5 am EST, New York City picked up a preliminary 1.33" of rainfall. That would be the first documented case of 1" or more hourly rainfall during the November-February period. The previous latest-season 1"+ rainfall occurred on October 23, 1912 when 1.31" fell. 

Wow, that brought back memories when we set the hourly rainfall record twice a couple of years ago during tropical season.  This does have the feel of a tropical type event on the front end-- is there a tropical connection with this, Don?

 

[donsutherland1]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow, that brought back memories when we set the hourly rainfall record twice a couple of years ago during tropical season.  This does have the feel of a tropical type event on the front end-- is there a tropical connection with this, Don?

 

There’s no tropical connection this time.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be rainy, windy, and mild this morning.  Temperatures will fall throughout the day and reach the lower 20s and even teens by this evening. Significant coastal flooding is likely at this morning’s high tide. Temperatures will fall sharply late in the day. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 55°

Philadelphia: 48°

Despite sunshine, it will be very cold tomorrow and Sunday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 43.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.8°; 15-Year: 43.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.1°; 15-Year: 45.1°

[Allsnow]

Over an inch of rain here with more the come….

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   30degs.(24/37)or -4.

Month to date is    40.0[+0.2].           Should be     37.3[-1.0] by the 30th.

Reached 55 here yesterday at Midnight. (56 today at 4am)

Today:  Falling T's-steady near 46 till 1pm-32 by 6pm-14-by midnight and 10 to 13 by tomorrow AM, wind w.-gusty to 30mph., drizzle possible till sunset.

51*(99%RH) Fog <0.5mi. (P=29.23") here at 6am.      48* at 7am.    Fog lifted at 7:30am.    Ocean moving considerably further inland and Steeplechase Pier sidewalk appears  noticeably closer to sea surface.     47* at 9am(P=29.20").       47* at 10am(P=29.17")      47* at 11am(P=29.14").       P=29.11" at 11:30am.      49* at Noon(P=29.08").  {P=29.05" at 12:30pm for the bottom of the P}      Snow squall here at 1:45pm with a T of 42.        38* at 2pm(P=29.14").      Reached 32* at 3pm.       27* at 4pm.      23* at 5pm.       20* at 6pm(P=29.44").       18* at 6:30pm.     15* at 8pm.

[bluewave]

A record breaking 12 consecutive years with 55+ within 5 days of December 20th. Newark reached a high of 58° earlier. Many top 3 warmest daily temperature records set over this period. This has become the fastest warming period in December.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Dec 15 to Dec 25	Missing Count
2022-12-25	58	2
2021-12-25	65	0
2020-12-25	62	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	57	0
2016-12-25	59	0
2015-12-25	71	0
2014-12-25	64	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	57	0
2011-12-25	62	0

 

12/15	68 in 2015	67 in 2008	63 in 2001
12/16	65 in 2021	65 in 1971	62 in 1982
12/17	66 in 2000	62 in 2021	60 in 1992+
12/18	64 in 1937	61 in 2006	61 in 1984
12/19	60 in 1931	58 in 1967	57 in 2017+
12/20	61 in 2002	61 in 1957	60 in 1999
12/21	64 in 2013	62 in 2011	61 in 2018+
12/22	71 in 2013	65 in 1998	64 in 1949
12/23	67 in 1990	66 in 2015	63 in 1949+
12/24	71 in 2015	64 in 1990	63 in 1996
12/25	69 in 1964	68 in 1982	64 in 2014

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A record breaking 12 consecutive years with 55+ within 5 days of December 20th. Newark reached a high of 58° earlier. Many top 3 warmest daily temperature records set over this period. This has become the fastest warming period in December.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Dec 15 to Dec 25	Missing Count
2022-12-25	58	2
2021-12-25	65	0
2020-12-25	62	0
2019-12-25	57	0
2018-12-25	61	0
2017-12-25	57	0
2016-12-25	59	0
2015-12-25	71	0
2014-12-25	64	0
2013-12-25	71	0
2012-12-25	57	0
2011-12-25	62	0

 

12/15	68 in 2015	67 in 2008	63 in 2001
12/16	65 in 2021	65 in 1971	62 in 1982
12/17	66 in 2000	62 in 2021	60 in 1992+
12/18	64 in 1937	61 in 2006	61 in 1984
12/19	60 in 1931	58 in 1967	57 in 2017+
12/20	61 in 2002	61 in 1957	60 in 1999
12/21	64 in 2013	62 in 2011	61 in 2018+
12/22	71 in 2013	65 in 1998	64 in 1949
12/23	67 in 1990	66 in 2015	63 in 1949+
12/24	71 in 2015	64 in 1990	63 in 1996
12/25	69 in 1964	68 in 1982	64 in 2014

Chris we hit 58 here on the south shore around 4 am when those big thunderstorms hit, the temps have been slowly falling since and are now in the upper 40s.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

1- 12-13 was only a mediocre winter

2. 02-03 snow before December was nonexistent

3. The only one that makes the pro list is 95-96

 

 

also you forgot one for the con list 89-90

 

Yeah meant 89/90 not 87/88, my bad.

Problem here is if Eastern areas including central LI raked in 12/13, then half the board had an above average winter. So you can't outright exclude cause half didn't. For instance, in 15/16 my area only had average snowfall, so is 15/16 an average snowfall winter for this forum? Half the forum had above average snowfall.

02/03 same thing. Had 4 inches here on the coast. A very good portion of the board had November snow so we cannot outright exclude for the board.

So, in my back yard which is on the coast, half have been good to great and half have been bad to terrible.

The sample size is so small that really nobody truly knows.

I get that weather patterns change and it could be "wasted" too early or too late, but sometimes weather patterns dominant for many months straight like 95/96, 02/03, 13/14 (yes I consider this a front to end winter, although we got shut out in March it was frigid and the storms just missed to the south. Not like we flipped out of a pattern).

Maybe we say November snow is a detriment for only half the board and not bad for the eastern half? So it's really a longitude thing?

Not trying to be argumentive, it's just that I do not live inland so it's not a north and west thing. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah thats what I thought-- we didn't have any snowstorms prior to December between 1995 and 2011.

 

What about those of us on the forum that did?

[MJO812]

Sand trucks are out

 

The roads here are a mess with all the sand

[EastonSN+]

November 95.

Anyone have the November 02 snow maps?

[SACRUS]

Overnight (highs)  - will contrast to lows later this evening/overnight Fri - Christmas Eve

 

LGA: 59

ACY: 59
PHL: 59
ISP: 58
NYC: 58
EWR: 58
TEB: 58
New Brunswick: 58
TTN: 57
BLM: 57
HPN: 57
JFK: 56

[EastonSN+]

If next week's storm does not work out, I wonder how many Decembers had a -4SD AO, negative temperature departures for the month and 0 snowfall for central park.

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah meant 89/90 not 87/88, my bad.

Problem here is if Eastern areas including central LI raked in 12/13, then half the board had an above average winter. So you can't outright exclude cause half didn't. For instance, in 15/16 my area only had average snowfall, so is 15/16 an average snowfall winter for this forum? Half the forum had above average snowfall.

02/03 same thing. Had 4 inches here on the coast. A very good portion of the board had November snow so we cannot outright exclude for the board.

So, in my back yard which is on the coast, half have been good to great and half have been bad to terrible.

The sample size is so small that really nobody truly knows.

I get that weather patterns change and it could be "wasted" too early or too late, but sometimes weather patterns dominant for many months straight like 95/96, 02/03, 13/14 (yes I consider this a front to end winter, although we got shut out in March it was frigid and the storms just missed to the south. Not like we flipped out of a pattern).

Maybe we say November snow is a detriment for only half the board and not bad for the eastern half? So it's really a longitude thing?

Not trying to be argumentive, it's just that I do not live inland so it's not a north and west thing. 

No you need to include both 87-88 and 89-90 as we had a snow event on Veterans Day 1987....it was quite famous too, from DC and Philly to Boston.  We actually got the least out of the east coast cities but it was still 1-3 inches.

 

[SACRUS]

Record Highs

EWR: 67 (1990, 2013)
New Brunswick: 70 (2013)
NYC: 66 (1990)
LGA:  66 (1990, 2015)
JFK: 63 (2015)
TTN: 70 (1891, 1990)

LOWS:

EWR: 7 (1989)
New Brunswick: 1 (1960)
NYC: -1 (1883)
LGA:  7 (1989)
JFK: 12 (2004)
TTN: 4 (1989)

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

No you need to include both 87-88 and 89-90 as we had a snow event on Veterans Day 1987....it was quite famous too, from DC and Philly to Boston.  We actually got the least out of the east coast cities but it was still 1-3 inches.

 

Ok will include.

So for my area (coastal CT) would be 3 above normal and 4 below normal. Still no definitive trend.

Maybe it's if it snows in November it's bad for western half of forum, 50/50 for east half?

 

[SACRUS]

T - 8- 9 hours away

 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If next week's storm does not work out, I wonder how many Decembers had a -4SD AO, negative temperature departures for the month and 0 snowfall for central park.

None. The record low for the 11 prior Decembers with a -4 AO is 0.5" in December 1978.

[SACRUS]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/WXTYPE/nerad9.jpg

snow into CPA (mixing)

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah meant 89/90 not 87/88, my bad.

Problem here is if Eastern areas including central LI raked in 12/13, then half the board had an above average winter. So you can't outright exclude cause half didn't. For instance, in 15/16 my area only had average snowfall, so is 15/16 an average snowfall winter for this forum? Half the forum had above average snowfall.

02/03 same thing. Had 4 inches here on the coast. A very good portion of the board had November snow so we cannot outright exclude for the board.

So, in my back yard which is on the coast, half have been good to great and half have been bad to terrible.

The sample size is so small that really nobody truly knows.

I get that weather patterns change and it could be "wasted" too early or too late, but sometimes weather patterns dominant for many months straight like 95/96, 02/03, 13/14 (yes I consider this a front to end winter, although we got shut out in March it was frigid and the storms just missed to the south. Not like we flipped out of a pattern).

Maybe we say November snow is a detriment for only half the board and not bad for the eastern half? So it's really a longitude thing?

Not trying to be argumentive, it's just that I do not live inland so it's not a north and west thing. 

I understand but we're going by NYC climo which is different from SNE climo.  Eastern LI is much more like SNE than it is NYC (because of latitude and longitude.)    I think you could say that November snow may be detrimental for part of the board, but only because that part gets screwed because of its location in other ways too-- things have to line up perfectly.  Both far eastern regions and far western regions have quicker return periods for snowfall.  Urban NE NJ to NYC and Western Long Island (Nassau County) have the longest return period between snow events.  I think there should be a way of statistically analyzing this.  Let's pick the average of EWR, NYC, LGA and JFK for one dataset and ISP, FOK and OKX for another dataset and Morristown, Monticello and Poughkeepsie for the third dataset.  What are the average return times for 1", 4" and 6" snow events for each?  I bet the urban dataset has the longest return times and also the shortest time between first and last events.

 

 

10-11 is also in that list of long weather patterns-- but for some "odd" reason (haha) mild/rainy patterns seem to last a lot longer than cold/snowy ones and if we do have a long cold pattern for some "odd" reason it seems to be cold and dry interspersed with cutters lol. That's what we had in the 80s.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

None. The record low for the 11 prior Decembers with a -4 AO is 0.5" in December 1978.

Thanks Don! Amazing stat. Goes to show that a good pattern does not guarantee snowfall. 

IMO just as impressive as February 2018 where we had accumulating snow in an absolute furnace.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I understand but we're going by NYC climo which is different from SNE climo.  Eastern LI is much more like SNE than it is NYC (because of latitude and longitude.)    I think you could say that November snow may be detrimental for part of the board, but only because that part gets screwed because of its location in other ways too-- things have to line up perfectly.  Both eastern regions and far western regions have quicker return periods for snowfall.  Urban NE NJ to NYC and Western Long Island (Nassau County) have the longest return period between snow events.  I think there should be a way of statistically analyzing this.  Let's pick the average of EWR, NYC, LGA and JFK for one dataset and ISP, FOK and OKX for one dataset and Morristown, Monticello and Poughkeepsie for the third dataset.  What are the average return times for 1", 4" and 6" snow events for each?  I bet the urban dataset has the longest return times and also the shortest time between first and last events.

 

 

11/12 is also in that list of long weather patterns-- but for some "odd" reason (haha) mild/rainy patterns seem to last a lot longer than cold/snowy ones and if we do have a long cold pattern for some "odd" reason it seems to be cold and dry interspersed with cutters lol. That's what we had in the 80s.

 

 

As I grow older, I enjoy the warm weather patterns more and more

I Remember the weather channel back then, this one host used to always say "it's just a cold SNAP, back to warmth before our next low pressure makes its way to the east".

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

November 95.

Anyone have the November 02 snow maps?

I loved this storm, it was unpredicted, the best kind.  We had 3-6 inches of snow (most towards Montauk, but still a very good 3-4 here and in the city.)

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

As I grow older, I enjoy the warm weather patterns more and more

I Remember the weather channel back then, this one host used to always say "it's just a cold SNAP, back to warmth before our next low pressure makes its way to the east".

I like spring snows because I know they will be the last of the season.  April 1996-- do you remember there were actually two snowstorms that month?  There was one that only hit the eastern part of the forum while it white rained in the western part and then there was the big one where we all cashed in, except for some odd reason NYC and LGA got less than an inch (JFK got 4.5 so that was pretty good.) The sweet spot was eastern Long Island which got 4" in the first storm and 16" in the second storm in April, 20" of snow in APRIL!

 

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I like spring snows because I know they will be the last of the season.  April 1996-- do you remember there were actually two snowstorms that month?  There was one that only hit the eastern part of the forum while it white rained in the western part and then there was the big one where we all cashed in, except for some odd reason NYC and LGA got less than an inch (JFK got 4.5 so that was pretty good.)

 

Yup, watching Andy Petitte dominating while the snow is falling.

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Overnight (highs)  - will contrast to lows later this evening/overnight Fri - Christmas Eve

 

LGA: 59

ACY: 59
PHL: 59
ISP: 58
NYC: 58
EWR: 58
TEB: 58
New Brunswick: 58
TTN: 57
BLM: 57
HPN: 57
JFK: 56

Tony can you post the max wind gusts for these sites alongside too?  Thanks!

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup, watching Andy Petitte dominating while the snow is falling.

Oh I loved that game!  I watched it live and watch it from time to time when it's on....especially during a summer heatwave haha.

1996 was so awesome in so many respects lol.