December 2022

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Can we take a mulligan on this one?

[Allsnow]

Just now, cleetussnow said:

Mexico FTW.

Record warmth coming 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Record warmth coming 

Agree.  I was planning to stockpile some more wood pellets, but my consumption will be half of normal for several weeks at least.  I think we get a 2 to 3 week stretch of winter later in Jan and then we are done.  And that's if we are lucky.  The pacific is setting up hostile as usual.

[CIK62]

Add 10 for the EURO and 15 for the GFS.........but is the CMC right?          Multiple single digit runs.     A 6 day average of 16!

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Can we take a mulligan on this one?

The greens and tees will be fine so no.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Agree.  I was planning to stockpile some more wood pellets, but my consumption will be half of normal for several weeks at least.  I think we get a 2 to 3 week stretch of winter later in Jan and then we are done.  And that's if we are lucky.  The pacific is setting up hostile as usual.

Yup. All the cold going to the other side of the globe 

[lee59]

From what I understand this air mass entering the U.S. is a dense air mass from Siberia. A heavy air mass like this may be hard to displace. So I am wondering if the models are overdoing the quick switch to way above normal temperatures. Not saying it won't get mild but not as fast as they indicate.

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Record warmth coming 

Hey, if it's not going to snow the next best thing is nice warm weather. Bring it on!

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey, if it's not going to snow the next best thing is nice warm weather. Bring it on!

Fine by me. If it won't snow I'd rather it be comfortable outside. Cutter to cold to cutter is the worst. 

[bluewave]

On 12/19/2022 at 3:19 PM, lee59 said:

From what I understand this air mass entering the U.S. is a dense air mass from Siberia. A heavy air mass like this may be hard to displace. So I am wondering if the models are overdoing the quick switch to way above normal temperatures. Not saying it won't get mild but not as fast as they indicate.

It all depends of the 500mb pattern. NYC had it’s first subzero reading in February 2016 since 1994 and was in the 60s within a week. 
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2016-02-12	27	15
2016-02-13	22	6
2016-02-14	15	-1
2016-02-15	35	13
2016-02-16	54	35
2016-02-17	39	35
2016-02-18	36	27
2016-02-19	39	24
2016-02-20	61	39
2016-02-21	55	44
2016-02-22	52	38
2016-02-23	40	35
2016-02-24	60	36
2016-02-25	61	37
2016-02-26	39	27
2016-02-27	41	26
2016-02-28	60	38
2016-02-29	61	47

[Volcanic Winter]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It all depends of the 500mb pattern. NYC had it’s first subzero reading in February 2014 since 1994 and was in the 60s within a week. The coldest readings with this Arctic shot will miss to our West. So we get several  days with highs in the 20s and lows the 10s. So not really that cold by any historical measures. 
 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature
2016-02-12	27	15
2016-02-13	22	6
2016-02-14	15	-1
2016-02-15	35	13
2016-02-16	54	35
2016-02-17	39	35
2016-02-18	36	27
2016-02-19	39	24
2016-02-20	61	39
2016-02-21	55	44
2016-02-22	52	38
2016-02-23	40	35
2016-02-24	60	36
2016-02-25	61	37
2016-02-26	39	27
2016-02-27	41	26
2016-02-28	60	38
2016-02-29	61	47

No, it’s not. “True cold,” or rather just cold with historical precedent in our latitude would feel intolerable to the masses after our continual winter torches and shortening cold season. I think about this stuff often (both historical climate shifts as well as change in geologic timescales), and it’s really interesting stuff. Especially how perceptions change over time; imagine tomorrow’s high were to be 8 degrees. People would be freaking out and assume it’s unprecedented, not that it was ever wholly common per se, of course. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

No, it’s not. “True cold,” or rather just cold with historical precedent in our latitude would feel intolerable to the masses after our continual winter torches and shortened cold season. I think about this stuff often (both historical climate shifts as well as change in geologic timescales), and it’s really interesting stuff. 

Quite likely because people would "feel" the cold more. Even the slightest chill in the fall sends some people scrambling for winter weather gear.  

 

[MJO812]

Waste of cold right now 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

No, it’s not. “True cold,” or rather just cold with historical precedent in our latitude would feel intolerable to the masses after our continual winter torches and shortening cold season. I think about this stuff often (both historical climate shifts as well as change in geologic timescales), and it’s really interesting stuff. Especially how perceptions change over time; imagine tomorrow’s high were to be 8 degrees. People would be freaking out and assume it’s unprecedented, not that it was ever wholly common per se, of course. 

I can still remember Christmas 1980 and 1983 which were the coldest on record going back to the late 1800s. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 25 to Dec 25	Missing Count
1	1980-12-25	-1	0
2	1983-12-25	4	0
-	1872-12-25	4	0
3	1914-12-25	11	0
4	1958-12-25	12	0
5	1968-12-25	13	0
-	1948-12-25	13	0
-	1878-12-25	13	0

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Weren't those ensembles showing extended cold about a week ago and the talk was of a cold first half of January? 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Weren't those ensembles showing extended cold about a week ago? 

Less than that. They literally flipped in 24 hours from an epic extended look to a big rainstorm and warmth.

In my mind day 10 onwards on the ensembles are extinct like the weeklies.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Less than that. They literally flipped in 24 hours from an epic extended look to a big rainstorm and warmth.

In my mind day 10 onwards on the ensembles are extinct like the weeklies.

Yup. I trust nothing in the 10+ day range.

[donsutherland1]

The EPS weeklies did a good job forecasting the now imminent Arctic outbreak showing cold anomalies in the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS for the December 19-26 period.

The also showed cold anomalies for December 27-January 2 period albeit not as cold as those for the preceding week, which implied potential moderation toward the end of that week (now likely according to the guidance). On December 15th, they flipped to show cold anomalies continuing for January 3-9, but have now reversed to warm anomalies in the East.

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Add 10 for the EURO and 15 for the GFS.........but is the CMC right?          Multiple single digit runs.     A 6 day average of 16!

There seems to be a new law of the universe which states that the NYC metro area *must* receive at least one Christmas mood killing 60+ degree day each year roughly during Christmas week.  Has this not been frequentlyl true for the past dozen or so years?  Look at that 12/23 abomination.  If recent history is a guide, that baby will manage to hit 60.  Granted, I"ll take it if the subsequent 6 days turn out as depicted.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

No, it’s not. “True cold,” or rather just cold with historical precedent in our latitude would feel intolerable to the masses after our continual winter torches and shortening cold season. I think about this stuff often (both historical climate shifts as well as change in geologic timescales), and it’s really interesting stuff. Especially how perceptions change over time; imagine tomorrow’s high were to be 8 degrees. People would be freaking out and assume it’s unprecedented, not that it was ever wholly common per se, of course. 

This point about historical precedent is an important one. If one looks at social media, there are fairly widespread comparisons of the upcoming Arctic outbreak with those of 1983 and 1989. In fact, this outbreak will be notable for the past 30 years (especially given the warming of the climate that has occurred during that time), but it does not compare to those of 1983 and 1989 in terms of magnitude and duration. For example, during December 1983 and December 1989, Corpus Christi had two days  during each outbreak with low temperatures below 20° (there are 5 such days in the historic record for December). There is currently an implied 10% chance that Corpus Christi will reach 19° or below at the height of the cold. At Galveston, both the 1983 and 1989 outbreaks had 2 such days (there are 5 such days in the historic record). There is currently an implied less than 1% chance that Galveston will record a temperature in the teens.

[MJO812]

Anyone follow this guy ?

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

There seems to be a new law of the universe which states that the NYC metro area *must* receive at least one Christmas mood killing 60+ degree day each year roughly during Christmas week.  Has this not been frequentlyl true for the past dozen or so years?  Look at that 12/23 abomination.  If recent history is a guide, that baby will manage to hit 60.  Granted, I"ll take it if the subsequent 6 days turn out as depicted.

5 days either side of the solstice is the fastest warming part of December. We are on track for the 12th year in a row going above 55° and maybe into the low 60s. Why this happens every year at this specific time would make a nice research paper. The highs during the first 2 weeks of December don’t show such a large increase. 
 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I can still remember Christmas 1980 and 1983 which were the coldest on record going back to the late 1800s. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 25 to Dec 25	Missing Count
1	1980-12-25	-1	0
2	1983-12-25	4	0
-	1872-12-25	4	0
3	1914-12-25	11	0
4	1958-12-25	12	0
5	1968-12-25	13	0
-	1948-12-25	13	0
-	1878-12-25	13	0

Yeah, the 80’s seem to be an interesting period within the context of the modern era from a temperature perspective. Is there anything you (or Don, or anyone of course) could add about the reasoning for the semi-frequent arctic intrusions and “true cold” during this decade? Anything meteorologically speaking that can be pointed to as a cause or mechanism, perhaps outside the obvious? Very interested. Thanks. 

On a side note, Bluewave - what is your profession man? I don’t mean to ask personal questions but I’m very curious, if you’re willing to divulge. You’re not a meteorologist? You have a serious wealth of knowledge and climatological analytical skill; just an extremely well informed non-expert / enthusiast? Another type of scientist perhaps?

[Rtd208]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Anyone follow this guy ?

Until I see at least two other forecast models do the same thing its nothing but clickbait or pure BS. 

[North and West]

Anyone follow this guy ?

This guy sounds like he’s trying to build a following and hope he scores an unexpected hit to build credibility via an “I Called It First” tactic, rather than mentioning likely scenarios and outcomes.

This is product marketing 101. (That’s part of my career)


.

[JTA66]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Anyone follow this guy ?

And yet it still looks like a rainstorm east of the mountains 

[EasternLI]

I felt like digging into the cutter situation and how the situation changed so drastically in short order a bit more. So looking at it from a bigger picture perspective. I can offer an alternative cause. A very ill timed cyclonic wave break, for our interests, is identified. With the lobe originally forecast to set up at 50/50 on guidance now going to break instead of doing that.

I know some are, but many may not be aware. When rossby waves break, they immediately are then replaced with a wave of the opposite sign. So that means a trough would be replaced with a ridge and vice versa. You can see the lobe break, and immediately be replaced by the ridge in the following loop. Therefore, cutter. 

 

As a side note, there will be a ridge in the east after the cutter cyclonicly breaks. It's one main reason why things often flip right after monumental events. More breaks to come according to ensembles. I think quite a different picture is very capable of emerging on ensembles as we head through this week actually. 

[lee59]

The coldest air to our south and west has been the theme for months, indicating to me there really has been no pattern change  at least in regards to cold air and the east coast.

[donsutherland1]

Not good news, but hot off the press:

[lee59]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can still remember Christmas 1980 and 1983 which were the coldest on record going back to the late 1800s. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 25 to Dec 25	Missing Count
1	1980-12-25	-1	0
2	1983-12-25	4	0
-	1872-12-25	4	0
3	1914-12-25	11	0
4	1958-12-25	12	0
5	1968-12-25	13	0
-	1948-12-25	13	0
-	1878-12-25	13	0

I remember that Christmas, temperatures in the single digits to around 10 for highs.