December 2022

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am in complete agreement. I posted a great post from CoastalWX in the NE forum where he pointed out the bad luck and flow nuances that hurt this opportunity. 

We have been extremely lucky 00/01 onwards as compared to the 90s where, other than 2 winters, were unlucky. Perhaps it's just evening out to average.

I personally do not feel that global warming has suddenly made it impossible to get a big snowstorm again with a -4AO. If the ridge out west was a bit further east the warmth, ridge to our east would have been pushed a little east and we would have had a good one. 

 

There is no luck involved with this persistent ridge along 65W which is causing an unlikely cutter. It’s part of a persistent pattern since the super El Niño in 15-16. There are several theories including a slowing AMOC due to the melting Arctic. But some feature of the warming climate is behind the historic ongoing marine heatwave to our east. Nobody has said that -4 -AOs and +1 PNA won’t produce snowstorms again in the future. But the chance that we’ll see cutters instead is beginning creep up when they never occurred in situations like this in the past.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is no luck involved with this persistent ridge along 65W which is causing an unlikely cutter. It’s part of a persistent pattern since the super El Niño in 15-16. There are several theories including a slowing AMOC due to the melting Arctic. But some feature of the warming climate is behind the historic ongoing marine heatwave to our east. Nobody has said that -4 -AOs and +1 PNA won’t produce snowstorms again in the future. But the chance that we’ll see cutters instead is beginning creep up when they never occurred in situations like this in the past.

Climate change leads to pattern change and different outcomes.

[North and West]

I am in complete agreement. I posted a great post from CoastalWX in the NE forum where he pointed out the bad luck and flow nuances that hurt this opportunity. 
We have been extremely lucky 00/01 onwards as compared to the 90s where, other than 2 winters, were unlucky. Perhaps it's just evening out to average.
I personally do not feel that global warming has suddenly made it impossible to get a big snowstorm again with a -4AO. If the ridge out west was a bit further east the warmth, ridge to our east would have been pushed a little east and we would have had a good one. 
 

This is a good point of why averages exist. Everything regresses to a mean. History rhymes but doesn’t repeat itself.


.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, snywx said:

Use the multi quote please!!

I didn't plan on making 15 posts lol....the weird thing is during the day I make a similar number of posts but because a lot more people are participating, it ends up being maybe 25% of the total and not more than 2-3 in a row.  I'll try to do it at night though because that was excessive (even for me).

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   37degs.(31/43) or +2.

Month to date is    41.2[+0.3].         Should be    39.8[+0.8] by the 26th.

Reached 43 here yesterday.

Today:    37-40, wind w., variable clouds, 31 tomorrow AM.

Read 'Em and Weep:    A muted cold spell and no snow, then toasted marsh mellows for all............ 

Use sunglasses to view for your own safety:

35*(80%) here at 6am.        36* at 9am.          37* at Noon.        38* at 1pm.      Reached  39* at 3pm.        35* at 9pm.

 

 

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We spend billions putting up GOES satellites, why can't we spend some money on 4D Var?

 

Something tells me chaim bloom isn't in charge of that..

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

This is a good point of why averages exist. Everything regresses to a mean. History rhymes but doesn’t repeat itself.


.

I'm not sure man.  Climate is dynamic not static and it keeps changing (even if human influence wasn't there, the climate would still change.)  There really is no such thing as average.

 

[EastonSN+]

On a general note, and it may be banter, but I am extremely disappointed with the way the ensemble LR guidance completely flipped on a dime.

Back in 19/20 I remember everyone was watching the weeklies which showed a great pattern week three onwards. Then we slowly realized the look would never materialize and now the weeklies are barely posted.

Now all three ensemble suites completely flipped day 8 onwards. This is very disappointing and shakes my confidence in anything shown past day seven.

It can flip back to a favorable look, but that would just exasperate the issue.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Climate change leads to pattern change and different outcomes.

Yeah this magical luck thing reminds me of the sabremetric crowd ugh.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

On a general note, and it may be banter, but I am extremely disappointed with the way the ensemble LR guidance completely flipped on a dime.

Back in 19/20 I remember everyone was watching the weeklies which showed a great pattern week three onwards. Then we slowly realized the look would never materialize and now the weeklies are barely posted.

Now all three ensemble suites completely flipped day 8 onwards. This is very disappointing and shakes my confidence in anything shown past day seven.

It can flip back to a favorable look, but that would just exasperate the issue.

They flipped because they weren't handling that warm pool well.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

This is a good point of why averages exist. Everything regresses to a mean. History rhymes but doesn’t repeat itself.


.

The issue is the use of 30 year norms rather than the entire database. Makes no sense to not use the entire database for comparison(s)

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yeah this magical luck thing reminds me of the sabremetric crowd ugh.

 

Exactly....

[WX-PA]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is no luck involved with this persistent ridge along 65W which is causing an unlikely cutter. It’s part of a persistent pattern since the super El Niño in 15-16. There are several theories including a slowing AMOC due to the melting Arctic. But some feature of the warming climate is behind the historic ongoing marine heatwave to our east. Nobody has said that -4 -AOs and +1 PNA won’t produce snowstorms again in the future. But the chance that we’ll see cutters instead is beginning creep up when they never occurred in situations like this in the past.

Nobody was talking about global warming from 2002-2014..when every other year was a blockbuster winter for snow. The coastal sections of the mid atlantic, NYC are not a snowy climate lets face it. Most of the 70's, 80's and 90's it hardly snowed here, especially in December. I think it's Mother Nature's way of balancing things out to normal.Man it took 10 years to get a snowfall over a foot in NYC from 83-93. And 9 years from 69-78

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Climate change leads to pattern change and different outcomes.

That new ridge to our east was the topic of the paper and presentation I posted in the other thread.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am in complete agreement. I posted a great post from CoastalWX in the NE forum where he pointed out the bad luck and flow nuances that hurt this opportunity. 

We have been extremely lucky 00/01 onwards as compared to the 90s where, other than 2 winters, were unlucky. Perhaps it's just evening out to average.

I personally do not feel that global warming has suddenly made it impossible to get a big snowstorm again with a -4AO. If the ridge out west was a bit further east the warmth, ridge to our east would have been pushed a little east and we would have had a good one. 

 

There is no such thing as "luck"-- when people can't explain something they resort to this kind of magic.

The pattern in the early 00s was part of the impact of climate change too-- more moisture in the atmosphere and changing storm tracks storms that would normally be suppressed like they were in the colder 80s were now tracking favorably for us.  You just have to look at how DC snowfall totals have plummeted as proof-- in a way, we are getting some of the snow that should have been theirs.

Now that climate change has further evolved with the warm pool and even warmer conditions, we are going to start to learn what it feels like to live in DC.  The climate is always changing and there is no such thing as "average"-- it's an always moving target, it's just moving faster now because of what humans are doing.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

They flipped because they weren't handling that warm pool well.

That may be the case, but what made them suddenly latch on now? Why not before? What is in the algorithm that suddenly recognized this warm pool and completely change the entire look.

Other than an upgrade to all three suites at the same time, I cannot see how it was just suddenly picked up cause it was always there.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, WX-PA said:

Nobody was talking about global warming from 2002-2014..when every other year was a blockbuster winter for snow. The coastal sections of the mid atlantic, NYC are not a snowy climate lets face it. Most of the 70's, 80's and 90's it hardly snowed here, especially in December. I think it's Mother Nature's way of balancing things out to normal.Man it took 10 years to get a snowfall over a foot in NYC from 83-93. And 9 years from 69-78

Yeah we were-- that was also part of climate change

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

That may be the case, but what made them suddenly latch on now? Why not before? What is in the algorithm that suddenly recognized this warm pool and completely change the entire look.

Other than an upgrade to all three suites at the same time, I cannot see how it was just suddenly picked up cause it was always there.

It seems like something that happens in the Day 7 range.  Honestly anything beyond 7 days is useless.

 

[North and West]

I'm not sure man.  Climate is dynamic not static and it keeps changing (even if human influence wasn't there, the climate would still change.)  There really is no such thing as average.
 

Regarding climate change, I’ve always thought of it as analogous as steroids in baseball; you’ve always had home runs and other outside variable factors (a wind gust coming through unexpectedly, a humid night, a scuff on the ball) impacting the flight of the ball, and steroids may take that warning track fly and push it over the wall, or the infield fly and make it a bloop, or a roided-up pitcher with too much velocity on a fastball and straightening it out, making it easier to hit the other way.


.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That may be the case, but what made them suddenly latch on now? Why not before? What is in the algorithm that suddenly recognized this warm pool and completely change the entire look.

Other than an upgrade to all three suites at the same time, I cannot see how it was just suddenly picked up cause it was always there.

The models have been underestimating the ridge along 65W beyond the 7 day range for the last 7 years. It’s a persistent model bias. So the model developers need to fix their models to make longer range forecasting more reliable in our region. Integration of AI or machine learning would be a good start. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for one of the least snowiest Decembers with such a -AO.  What makes this one really unusual is that we are getting a +1 PNA this week with the storm. In 2012 we didn’t get the +PNA spike like this year with the -4 AO. So that one was more understandable. 
 

December -3 or lower daily values since 2000 and NYC snowfall

12-11-22….-4.2378……?

12-28-20….-3.197……..10.5”

12-8-12…….-3.902……0.4”

12-18-10……-5.265…..20.1”

12-21-09……-5.2821….12.4”

12-05-05……-3.569….9.7”

12-28-01…….-3.293….T

12-29-00……-4.688….13.4”

Out of curiosity's sake what was December 2000 like before the Millenium storm? Is there a chance we could pull it off again near the end of the month?  Dec 26-30 seems to be a hot spot as far as big snowstorms are concerned.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It seems like something that happens in the Day 7 range.  Honestly anything beyond 7 days is useless.

 

And just like the weeklies were made irrelevant after the 19/20 season, day 8 onwards of the ensembles seem to be useless.

Really disappointing, and IMO more disappointing than this snowstorm opportunity miss. Relegated to using the op runs and ensembles just to see individual low pressure placement under 8 days. Terrible.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a cold suppression pattern December 24-28 before we get a moderation with the big +EPO spike near the end of the month.

So much more like December 1989 than December 2000?

This does resemble a (much) warmer version of 12/89

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not sure man.  Climate is dynamic not static and it keeps changing (even if human influence wasn't there, the climate would still change.)  There really is no such thing as average.

 

We know that to be true.

8 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Nobody was talking about global warming from 2002-2014..when every other year was a blockbuster winter for snow. The coastal sections of the mid atlantic, NYC are not a snowy climate lets face it. Most of the 70's, 80's and 90's it hardly snowed here, especially in December. I think it's Mother Nature's way of balancing things out to normal.Man it took 10 years to get a snowfall over a foot in NYC from 83-93. And 9 years from 69-78

That is not correct. Global warming has been a concern for decades, but many people chose to ignore it.

The term “global warming” appears for the first time - HISTORY

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models have been underestimating  with the ridge along 65W beyond the 7 day range for the last 7 years. It’s a persistent model bias. So the model developers need to fix their models to make longer range forecasting . Integration of AI or machine learning would be a good start. 

Which model has the best handle on that ridge? The CMC?

 

[WX-PA]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models have been underestimating the ridge along 65W beyond the 7 day range for the last 7 years. It’s a persistent model bias. So the model developers need to fix their models to make longer range forecasting more reliable in our region. Integration of AI or machine learning would be a good start. 

Well really past day 10 on any ensemble, OP is useless..And then  CFS put's monthly's and seasonal out which is a joke. How can any model predict the weather 3-6 months ahead. Basically it's for entertainment use, but some forecasters take it seriously 

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

And just like the weeklies were made irrelevant after the 19/20 season, day 8 onwards of the ensembles seem to be useless.

Really disappointing, and IMO more disappointing than this snowstorm opportunity miss. Relegated to using the op runs and ensembles just to see individual low pressure placement under 8 days. Terrible.

Don't worry, somehow the euro will still score 92 and gfs 90 even though we all know they have sucked

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, North and West said:

Regarding climate change, I’ve always thought of it as analogous as steroids in baseball; you’ve always had home runs and other outside variable factors (a wind gust coming through unexpectedly, a humid night, a scuff on the ball) impacting the flight of the ball, and steroids may take that warning track fly and push it over the wall, or the infield fly and make it a bloop, or a roided-up pitcher with too much velocity on a fastball and straightening it out, making it easier to hit the other way.


.

I think with climate change we might also be seeing a feedback effect, so with time the changes become more and more apparent.

So an analogy might be like....if steroids weren't banned, players would keep hitting more and more HR.....so McGwire with 70 and then Bonds with 73 and then a few years later someone else would hit 80, then 85, etc.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Well really past day 10 on any ensemble, OP is useless..And then  CFS put's monthly's and seasonal out which is a joke. How can any model predict the weather 3-6 months ahead. Basically it's for entertainment use, but some forecasters take it seriously 

Agree. There is far too much reliance on the models as opposed to pattern recognition.

[donsutherland1]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The models have been underestimating the ridge along 65W beyond the 7 day range for the last 7 years. It’s a persistent model bias. So the model developers need to fix their models to make longer range forecasting more reliable in our region. Integration of AI or machine learning would be a good start. 

FYI:

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2021/19877-machine-learning-ecmwf-roadmap-next-10-years.pdf