December 2022

[wdrag]

Good Saturday morning everyone, Dec 17. I'll add on the two day snow event verification at about 4PM, for those that might be interested. What's next?

Thursday afternoon-Friday Dec 22-23. Quite a range of solutions. Looks complex with the likelihood that the bulk of the snow and ice will occur west (inland) of the I-95 corridor from northwestern sections of NC and Virginia up to NYS-New England. The coastal cities from Washington to NYC and Boston could have a little snow at the start and end of the storm (an inch or 3?), with the better chance for higher impact wintry weather along and north of the I-84 corridor. Flurries or a slight covering of snow might even make it down to Atlanta Asheville and Raleigh? There is likely to be at least one short period of 50-60 MPH wind gusts with this rapidly intensifying strong storm. And, it still looks like the coldest air of the season so far, will arrive by Christmas Eve and linger Christmas Day.

Two maps for this event were added this morning. Both of these are the NWS Blend of Models for snowfall by Friday night the 23rd... it's not gospel but does show that there might be a first little snowfall of the season for Washington-Baltimore-Philly-NYC? but the bulk of this wintry weather event should be from Pennsylvania NYS and interior New England northward. The last map is the Blend of Models low temperature for Christmas morning.

I also saw the GEFS ens snowfall... MUCH closer to the coast and heavier than EPS/GEPS. I am not yet mourning and think it best to keep eyes wide open... til the GFS says, give it up Walt. 

 

To get there... the Great Lakes trough rolls through late this weekend...I could see flurries even down here in NYC.  Then the colder air follows for the rest of the period Mon-Thu. 

Added blend of models from 00z/17 for snowfall and 7A Christmas temp.  

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The SSTs are still almost 60° south of Nova Scotia where the ridge axis is located.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44150

Water Temperature (WTMP):

59.5 °F

 

Is there no mixing with water farther south? How do they stay so warm when it's somewhat cooler farther to the south?  Do you think that region will be seeing SST in the 70s during the summer?  That might result in stronger TC landfalls there (they are far enough east to get more of them than we do anyway).

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Good Saturday morning everyone, Dec 17. I'll add on the two day snow event verification at about 4PM, for those that might be interested. What's next?

Thursday afternoon-Friday Dec 22-23. Quite a range of solutions. Looks complex with the likelihood that the bulk of the snow and ice will occur west (inland) of the I-95 corridor from northwestern sections of NC and Virginia up to NYS-New England. The coastal cities from Washington to NYC and Boston could have a little snow at the start and end of the storm (an inch or 3?), with the better chance for higher impact wintry weather along and north of the I-84 corridor. Flurries or a slight covering of snow might even make it down to Atlanta Asheville and Raleigh? There is likely to be at least one short period of 50-60 MPH wind gusts with this rapidly intensifying strong storm. And, it still looks like the coldest air of the season so far, will arrive by Christmas Eve and linger Christmas Day.

Two maps for this event were added this morning. Both of these are the NWS Blend of Models for snowfall by Friday night the 23rd... it's not gospel but does show that there might be a first little snowfall of the season for Washington-Baltimore-Philly-NYC? but the bulk of this wintry weather event should be from Pennsylvania NYS and interior New England northward. The last map is the Blend of Models low temperature for Christmas morning.

I also saw the GEFS ens snowfall... MUCH closer to the coast and heavier than EPS/GEPS. I am not yet mourning and think it best to keep eyes wide open... til the GFS says, give it up Walt. 

 

To get there... the Great Lakes trough rolls through late this weekend...I could see flurries even down here in NYC.  Then the colder air follows for the rest of the period Mon-Thu. 

Added blend of models from 00z/17 for snowfall and 7A Christmas temp.  

 

Thanks Walt-- I look forward to the final snowfall update from the last storm too-- I saw amounts around 10" posted for the Poconos as well as in Sullivan county!

 

[Allsnow]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The SSTs are still almost 60° south of Nova Scotia where the ridge axis is located.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44150

Water Temperature (WTMP):

59.5 °F

 

Core of the cold goes south then we will moderate 

[the_other_guy]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Core of the cold goes south then we will moderate 

3 Day shot. Our usual

[Allsnow]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

3 Day shot. Our usual

Meanwhile the west has been in the freezer since November 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Core of the cold goes south then we will moderate 

The 360 hr forecasts have been low skill. if the EPS finally gets one right, then it will be a mild start to January. But who really knows beyond 8-10 days. This is one of the few milder 360 hr forecasts since late November. Most of them have been too cold. 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 360 hr forecasts have been low skill. if the EPS finally gets one right, then it will be a mild start to January. But who really knows beyond 8-10 days. This is one of the few milder 360 hr forecasts since late November. Most of them have been too cold. 

 

 

 

True. I’m sure it won’t have a issue getting this one correct haha 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will become partly cloudy.  High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 44°

Tomorrow will be another dry day.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.8°; 15-Year: 44.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 45.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.5°; 15-Year: 46.7°

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

True. I’m sure it won’t have a issue getting this one correct haha 

Yeah, this will probably be one of the most underperforming extreme blocks for snow and cold in our in our area.
 

 

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Core of the cold goes south then we will moderate 

Similar to the Feb outbreak that froze Texas a couple years ago-we got a storm then but it was a mixed bag and the cold was run of the mill by the time it got here.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Similar to the Feb outbreak that froze Texas a couple years ago-we got a storm then but it was a mixed bag and the cold was run of the mill by the time it got here.

That was 2021 right?  February was a pretty good month for snow for us-- I think we had three nice snow events that month?

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging     35degs.(31/40)or Normal

Reached 48 here yesterday.

Today:    40-43, wind w.-breezy early, p. sunny, 32 tomorrow AM.

Forget the snow and emphasize the T..............       Rossby Waves are a train wreck till Jan. 10 as I showed earlier.      Trouble is they did not have the  BN period which might occur first----before the furnace.

38*(83%RH) here at 6am.      39* at 8am.      40* at 10am.      42* at Noon.       43* at 1pm.     41* at 3pm.     39* at 9pm.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this will probably be one of the most underperforming extreme blocks for snow and cold in our in our area.
 

 

Welp we didn't get much snow out of the -7.1 in Jan 1977 either lol

December 1989 should also be mentioned for being historically cold but very dry, that even had  a monumental "game time" bust of 6-8 inches being forecast and us getting nothing but rain and thunderstorms!  Warmed up right as the secondary developed and that was bust was just as big as the February 1989 bust where 6-8 inches were expected here and it was all virga lol.  That one dropped 19 inches in ACY, so we had both types of big busts in the same calendar year- a virga suppression cold bust and a rainy thundery mild bust!

 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Welp we didn't get much snow out of the -7.1 in Jan 1977 either lol

 

Yeah, but it is was our coldest late December into early February in modern times. This week we make a run on 60° before Christmas and then drop to around  15° in NYC. So no subzero readings like January 1977.

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 43 yesterday, over night low of 36.  Currently 37 under a clear sky. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, but it is was our coldest late December into early February in modern times. This week we make a run on 60° before Christmas and then drop to around  15° in NYC. So no subzero readings like January 1977.

 

 

It would be interesting to see what kind of block we had in February 2016 during the below zero outbreak then (and the block we had for the Jan 2016 historic blizzard!)

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, but it is was our coldest late December into early February in modern times. This week we make a run on 60° before Christmas and then drop to around  15° in NYC. So no subzero readings like January 1977.

 

 

Wow I see 58 in the Poconos dropping to 0 and 65 around here dropping to 14!  Are those high temps with the cutter, so they'll happen while it's raining?

 

[SACRUS]

Could see a 35 or more degree swing between Thu 22  and Sat Christmas Eve.  Temp spike to low 50s then some teens Sat and Christmas Day,

[SnowGoose69]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 360 hr forecasts have been low skill. if the EPS finally gets one right, then it will be a mild start to January. But who really knows beyond 8-10 days. This is one of the few milder 360 hr forecasts since late November. Most of them have been too cold. 

 

 

 

 

It appears to be a transient change to me to a GOA low or semi vortex, the GEPS/GEFS show it too D12-15 or so but it begins retrograding at the end and the ridge is beginning to build back...the EPS just seems to be slower but it too looks like it may be retrograding the trof back to the Aleutians D15=16

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Welp we didn't get much snow out of the -7.1 in Jan 1977 either lol

December 1989 should also be mentioned for being historically cold but very dry, that even had  a monumental "game time" bust of 6-8 inches being forecast and us getting nothing but rain and thunderstorms!  Warmed up right as the secondary developed and that was bust was just as big as the February 1989 bust where 6-8 inches were expected here and it was all virga lol.  That one dropped 19 inches in ACY, so we had both types of big busts in the same calendar year- a virga suppression cold bust and a rainy thundery mild bust!

 

We think models are bad today--they were horrendous back then..I remember both of those busts vividly...

[MJO812]

Maybe the GFS is right with the fast flow . That's what usually happens in La Nina winters , not wrapped up bombs

[EasternLI]

If you loop the ensembles, you can see a CWB cyclonic wave break near Alaska. And the trough retrograding back towards the sea of Okhotsk. But need to see how this week plays out first I think. 

[wdrag]

I saw the huge change in the EC yesterday 12z cycle and associated EPS.  

EPS may start drifting closer to a GEFS solution. Below the 18z/16 and 06z/17 12z/23 GEFS 500MB.  I am thinking that the EPS will eventually dig further east, reverting to its guidance prior to 12z/16.   Just seems too far west.

IF the GEFS is close,  the ridge will build north, and the primary storm will redevelop to Delmarva and move NNE.  

There seems to be too much deference to the EPS.

My guess is the very strong block to our north is going to result in a very intense low crossing the northeast late this week, with a following pair of accumulative snow opportunities between 12/26-1/3. 

00z/17 GEFS and GEPS not nearly as warm at 360 hours.  

 

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It depends on how strong the secondary low is. The EPS has several members with a primary into the Great Lakes and secondary in Eastern PA. The GEM has that scenario. So it has hurricane force gusts ahead of the storm and 60° to 8° in NYC behind the front. So a super front with a 50°+ drop.

 

Thanks, I thought winds would peak around 60, hurricane force is MUCH more serious!

Any thoughts on a warm up come January 1st?  Maybe 89-90 will be the true analog for this winter....is the warm up come January something that will last for a few weeks at least?  It's a lot better than cold and dry that's for sure.

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We think models are bad today--they were horrendous back then..I remember both of those busts vividly...

Yep, meanwhile we have to remember the storm we're all "tracking" is still north of Siberia.  I didn't even know that storms from that region could even come here.....

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yep, meanwhile we have to remember the storm we're all "tracking" is still north of Siberia.  I didn't even know that storms from that region could even come here.....

 

Yep data sparse regions-that's why we often see abrupt changes as the energy gets into data rich regions

[wdrag]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I saw the huge change in the EC yesterday 12z cycle and associated EPS.  

EPS may start drifting closer to a GEFS solution. Below the 18z/16 and 06z/17 12z/23 GEFS 500MB.  I am thinking that the EPS will eventually dig further east, reverting to its guidance prior to 12z/16.   Just seems too far west.

IF the GEFS is close,  the ridge will build north, and the primary storm will redevelop to Delmarva and move NNE.  

There seems to be too much deference to the EPS.

My guess is the very strong block to our north is going to result in a very intense low crossing the northeast late this week, with a following pair of accumulative snow opportunities between 12/26-1/3. 

00z/17 GEFS and GEPS not nearly as warm at 360 hours.  

 

 

and now the guidance:  Click the maps and note the further east trend in the last 12 hours and also greater consensus in the GEFS at 06z/17. Sunday morning call me wrong if the EPS warm wind south flow is still valid.  I am definitely thinking GEFS/GFS are going to be more accurate with EC and CMC to follow: That doesn't mean I'm reading this correctly.  I get leery of dismissing the GEFS. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Yep data sparse regions-that's why we often see abrupt changes as the energy gets into data rich regions

and the models back in the late 80s sucked right up to the time it was actually supposed to snow haha.  They somehow got February 1978 right a week out but pretty much everything else was the toss of a coin.

 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

and the models back in the late 80s sucked right up to the time it was actually supposed to snow haha.  They somehow got February 1978 right a week out but pretty much everything else was the toss of a coin.

 

Models largely sucked with Miller B storms or redevelopers until the mid 90s, simpler setups like Miller As they often did much better...a storm like 12/30/00 would have busted 100 times worse on 12/30/90 than it did a decade later...as a whole a large area was modeled well with that despite the fact it was a tricky storm for models even in 2000 to get right.