ag3 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: When did that fall? Probably the biggest winter turnaround I can remember that year Dec. 10th. There were also 3 traces in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Thanks Maybe if we are lucky a big cutter before Christmas can finally pull the trough into the East. That could leave the door open later in the month for a colder storm track. But I am hesitant to buy into a significant snow threat from more than 5 days out with how the models have been in full pushback mode since late November. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 HELP ME----I'M FALLING. The EURO even goes to 60 before the Arctic? surge arrives. Neither has any 10 Day snow. The GFS is 32 with a lot of snow at the same time.time: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Don't look now but the ICON is taking a significant step towards the GFS with its handling of the shortwave through 75... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Don't look now but the ICON is taking a significant step towards the GFS with its handling of the shortwave through 75... Yep good trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Gfs looks identical early. Not gonna budge here I don't think 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 GFS is not even on the same planet as the ECMWF with the handling of the TPV. not even close look at the separation in BC. two distinct pieces 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GFS is not even on the same planet as the ECMWF with the handling of the TPV. not even close look at the separation in BC. two distinct pieces Radical differences lead to radically different outcomes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: I actually think this December has been better than some recent past ones. A lot of northern and western parts of this subforum have already seen 3 snow events. The snow did make it into NYC and the immediate suburbs last Sunday. I can't remember the last winter it snowed much in or near NYC before Christmas. This is very true. I’m at 10.6” ytd at 12/16. Not too bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 once you get to days 4-5, the differences are glaring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, snywx said: This is very true. I’m at 10.6” ytd at 12/16. Not too bad at all Really? Damn. I have about 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Partial cave for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 18z GFS is heavy cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Gfs looks identical early. Not gonna budge here I don't think Oh it budged 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Partial cave for sure Yep. Still much different than Euro/CMC, but it now shows rain for next friday instead of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 More rain… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: More rain… We asked for it all summer..well we're getting it now lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, Stormlover74 said: We asked for it all summer..well we're getting it now lol Reminds me of December 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 What a winter for the lakes area Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: More rain… Rain should be banned during the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Be back for 0z when the models come east Ciao 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: 18z GFS is heavy cold rain Maybe not that cold. Strong 970mb low over Hagerstown would likely spike us to 50 for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Well that didn't take long for the GFS to partially cave. It usually takes a day or 2 at this timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The storm responsible for rain along the coast and some snow well inland will wind down tonight. So far, precipitation totals are in line with expectations. Amounts included: Albany: 1.76" (today's 1.60" set a daily record) Binghamton: 0.93" (7.3" of snow) Boston: 0.87" Bridgeport: 1.03" New York City: 1.28" Newark: 1.17" Philadelphia: 2.05" (yesterday's 1.90" set a daily record) Providence: 1.17" In the wake of the departing storm, a cold but dry weekend will follow. Late next week could see another storm bring precipitation to the region. Model solutions range from accumulating snow in the New York City-Newark area to a potential Ohio Valley/Great Lakes blizzard. Details remain to be sorted out, but the latter scenario is currently the favored one on the ensembles. Once that storm passes, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region. The latest EPS weeklies continue to suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 and December 27-January 2 periods. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. Afterward, as the PNA goes neutral, the prospect for snowfall and more significant cold could increase. The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around December 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +11.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.548 today. On December 14 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.652 (RMM). The December 13-adjusted amplitude was 0.751 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: They don’t really break it down, there just is not much cold air but the 500mb pattern D10-16 is way better for us than the pattern now that's the problem it always looks good day 10-15 then it craps the bed medium term. This ended up being one of those warm -NAO patterns. Very similar to Dec 96.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rain should be banned during the winter Move to Breckenridge CO no rain from Nov-April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Hard to call it winter with such warmth and liquid precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Cold following the storm is nothing crazy on xmas day: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Hard to call it winter with such warmth and liquid precipitation It hasn't been warm. I haven't been past the mid 30's for highs in a week and hit a low of 10 this week. December will likely finish average or slightly below average. It just hasn't snowed as much as we would like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now