December 2022

[Blizzwalker]

Like everyone, was getting hopes up for 12/22.  "Unreal pattern", "Perfect set-up", "Textbook KU 500", etc.

Now, I feel let down-- but not as much as I used to.  After decades, I'm getting better at appreciating tracking but not so invested that I'm a victim of the bipolar swings.

It hurts when the mega-storm evaporates-- but let us not forget the times that even in marginal patterns we can have big events emerge rather unexpectedly....hope something comes up.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Blizzwalker said:

Like everyone, was getting hopes up for 12/22.  "Unreal pattern", "Perfect set-up", "Textbook KU 500", etc.

Now, I feel let down-- but not as much as I used to.  After decades, I'm getting better at appreciating tracking but not so invested that I'm a victim of the bipolar swings.

It hurts when the mega-storm evaporates-- but let us not forget the times that even in marginal patterns we can have big events emerge rather unexpectedly....hope something comes up.

WhileIt's not looking promising I am a bit surprised by how many people have decided the outcome is determined 6-7 days out.  

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, Blizzwalker said:

Like everyone, was getting hopes up for 12/22.  "Unreal pattern", "Perfect set-up", "Textbook KU 500", etc.

Now, I feel let down-- but not as much as I used to.  After decades, I'm getting better at appreciating tracking but not so invested that I'm a victim of the bipolar swings.

It hurts when the mega-storm evaporates-- but let us not forget the times that even in marginal patterns we can have big events emerge rather unexpectedly....hope something comes up.

Long range is way too difficult to predict to get excited about a potential event that's 10 days away. I don't get hopes up until a potential event gets to the more realistic day 5 range. The model skill is just too poor when you're looking out over a week. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Especially in a La Nina. You really need to see a decent December snowstorm in a La Nina winter or else the odds of having a well below normal snowfall winter are high. 

Why is that any way?  If the Pacific is so influential in our weather and December has the highest chance of sucking because of a bad Pacific and La Nina's usually feature a bad Pacific, wouldn't it make sense that January and February are much more important because they are less sensitive to a bad Pacific?

What exactly would keep it from being much better in January and February when we are favored to have much higher chances of snow and the SST are much colder?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Especially in a La Nina. You really need to see a decent December snowstorm in a La Nina winter or else the odds of having a well below normal snowfall winter are high. 

I think this is just statistical coincidence, the weather doesn't recognize "months"-- it could just as easily snow in the first week of January and the weather wouldn't recognize any difference from it being December.

 

[LibertyBell]

44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It doesn't always happen right away. Sometimes it can take over a month and December hasn't been kind to us. 

But it is what it is. 

Also not every strong -AO has led to a snowy outcome especially in a Nina

or an el nino for that matter.

We have to stop thinking of enso having that much governance over our weather.  That warm pool in the Atlantic s actually more responsible for it.

 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

Like everyone, was getting hopes up for 12/22.  "Unreal pattern", "Perfect set-up", "Textbook KU 500", etc.

Now, I feel let down-- but not as much as I used to.  After decades, I'm getting better at appreciating tracking but not so invested that I'm a victim of the bipolar swings.

It hurts when the mega-storm evaporates-- but let us not forget the times that even in marginal patterns we can have big events emerge rather unexpectedly....hope something comes up.

This epic pattern is a big failure 

[SI Mailman]

Almost exactly 12 years ago, the models were showing nada til 48 hours out. I got 30 inches of snow. Just saying

[MJO812]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

Almost exactly 12 years ago, the models were showing nada til 48 hours out. I got 30 inches of snow. Just saying

Actually the models were showing a storm 9 days out . None showed a cutter to my knowledge.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Actually the models were showing a storm 9 days out . None showed a cutter to my knowledge.

Correct and the euro had a major blizzard 4 days out before losing the storm

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, mannynyc said:

This definitely isn’t a terrible place to be with the GFS at this point. 

Thats awesome Cape May gets 16" and Philly and Boston get 10" and NYC gets less than any of them.

[Rmine1]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This epic pattern is a big failure 

The hope of an epic pattern is the failure. 

[Blizzwalker]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This epic pattern is a big failure 

I'm going backpacking in the Catskills for 3 days tomorrow. There's going to be so much snow that even with snowshoes don't know if I will make a summit...

Good antidote for this sh..t, I mean nonsense. I WILL see snow !!

[Rmine1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats awesome Cape May gets 16" and Philly and Boston get 10" and NYC gets less than any of them.

This ain’t happening 

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

From the Philly subforum

Yesterday 12z to now

 

Yeah, the Euro lost the southern stream low that was phasing in yesterday. It was that low that was keeping the baroclinic zone close to the coast. Now, it’s too northern stream dominant and the warm pool and ridge is really flexing east of New England. It could also be another reminder how we can’t seem to avoid the big warm up around the solstice.

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

Almost exactly 12 years ago, the models were showing nada til 48 hours out. I got 30 inches of snow. Just saying

different scenario models were OTS so the correction was NW-this is well NW now.

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Especially in a La Nina. You really need to see a decent December snowstorm in a La Nina winter or else the odds of having a well below normal snowfall winter are high. 

this is probably the most important piece of the 78 pages thus far.

 

guys are rooting for some sort of pattern change and major snowstorm that has yet to materialize. I was one of the first people to point out toward the end of November, that we seem to be in an endless cutter pattern…that I didnt like going into Dec 1.

 

each week we keep slicing off another piece of December.

 

winter isn’t done by any means. But what is becoming alarmingly clear to me is that prolonged cold and snow in December in New York City is almost impossible in this new climate. even the shot of cold air that follows the snowstorm coming next week is a shot.

 

and given that we are in a La Niña, if we don’t get something in December, coupled with the warm November… We are likely looking at a gutter ball of a winter in terms of average snowfall.

 

so hope something happens in the next 10 days… It’s really important for the winter ahead

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, the_other_guy said:

this is probably the most important piece of the 78 pages thus far.

 

guys are rooting for some sort of pattern change and major snowstorm that has yet to materialize. I was one of the first people to point out toward the end of November, that we seem to be in an endless cutter pattern…that I didnt like going into Dec 1.

 

each week we keep slicing off another piece of December.

 

winter isn’t done by any means. But what is becoming alarmingly clear to me is that prolonged cold and snow in December in New York City is almost impossible in this new climate. even the shot of cold air that follows the snowstorm coming next week is a shot.

 

and given that we are in a La Niña, if we don’t get something in December, coupled with the warm November… We are likely looking at a gutter ball of a winter in terms of average snowfall.

 

so hope something happens in the next 10 days… It’s really important for the winter ahead

 

 

I actually think this December has been better than some recent past ones. A lot of northern and western parts of this subforum have already seen 3 snow events. The snow did make it into NYC and the immediate suburbs last Sunday. I can't remember the last winter it snowed much in or near NYC before Christmas. 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

Like everyone, was getting hopes up for 12/22.  "Unreal pattern", "Perfect set-up", "Textbook KU 500", etc.

Now, I feel let down-- but not as much as I used to.  After decades, I'm getting better at appreciating tracking but not so invested that I'm a victim of the bipolar swings.

It hurts when the mega-storm evaporates-- but let us not forget the times that even in marginal patterns we can have big events emerge rather unexpectedly....hope something comes up.

This never really had the time or the chance to develop into the kind of hysteria you get with "mega storm" possibilities.

Could you imagine a March 2001 kind of bust around Christmas? Omg

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I actually think this December has been better than some recent past ones. A lot of northern and western parts of this subforum have already seen 3 snow events. The snow did make it into NYC and the immediate suburbs last Sunday. I can't remember the last winter it snowed much in or near NYC before Christmas. 

That's a good point too.  Not only does the weather not recognize "months"we have to be careful in basing statistical correlations on single spots-- Central Park is just a point-- places not very far from it have seen significant snow.

 

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I actually think this December has been better than some recent past ones. A lot of northern and western parts of this subforum have already seen 3 snow events. The snow did make it into NYC and the immediate suburbs last Sunday. I can't remember the last winter it snowed much in or near NYC before Christmas. 

well, ironically, this is true. It’s been a lot colder this December than we’ve had in a while. 1 to 2 inches of snow in the immediate northern suburbs last week. But it’s still nowhere near what normal is in New York City proper for December 10 20 or 30 years ago. 

[Allsnow]

Eps snow mean is pathetic for the entire run. Pattern breaks down and the vortex moves into Ak 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

this is probably the most important piece of the 78 pages thus far.

 

guys are rooting for some sort of pattern change and major snowstorm that has yet to materialize. I was one of the first people to point out toward the end of November, that we seem to be in an endless cutter pattern…that I didnt like going into Dec 1.

 

each week we keep slicing off another piece of December.

 

winter isn’t done by any means. But what is becoming alarmingly clear to me is that prolonged cold and snow in December in New York City is almost impossible in this new climate. even the shot of cold air that follows the snowstorm coming next week is a shot.

 

and given that we are in a La Niña, if we don’t get something in December, coupled with the warm November… We are likely looking at a gutter ball of a winter in terms of average snowfall.

 

so hope something happens in the next 10 days… It’s really important for the winter ahead

 

 

This may not be the pattern to get that.  You may need the pattern to completely break down and rebuild a new and better block.

I don't buy the December stuff as anything but coincidence, because the weather doesn't recognize "months"

I would rather put my eggs in the two months which are most favored to get big snows and that's January and February.  December isn't even a winter month here anymore.

 

[ag3]

23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Especially in a La Nina. You really need to see a decent December snowstorm in a La Nina winter or else the odds of having a well below normal snowfall winter are high. 

 

In any year.

 

If NYC sees less than 2" for December, chances of an above normal season go down DRAMATICALLY. If it's less than 1", the stats are even more grim.

The only rare exception is 2015-2016. We lucked out with a HECS in January but overall no winter.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Euro lost the southern stream low that was phasing in yesterday. It was that low that was keeping the baroclinic zone close to the coast. Now, it’s too northern stream dominant and the warm pool and ridge is really flexing east of New England. It could also be another reminder how we can’t seem to avoid the big warm up around the solstice.

 

 

 

Something else Nina’s are known for… northern stream dominant systems. 

I know there are many other factors influencing things but this Nina has to end. 

[Rmine1]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Euro lost the southern stream low that was phasing in yesterday. It was that low that was keeping the baroclinic zone close to the coast. Now, it’s too northern stream dominant and the warm pool and ridge is really flexing east of New England. It could also be another reminder how we can’t seem to avoid the big warm up around the solstice.

 

 

 

Break out the shorts! Well maybe not, but it’s not going to feel like winter, still 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

This may not be the pattern to get that.  You may need the pattern to completely break down and rebuild a new and better block.

I don't buy the December stuff as anything but coincidence, because the weather doesn't recognize "months"

I would rather put my eggs in the two months which are most favored to get big snows and that's January and February.  December isn't even a winter month here anymore.

 

Yes we seem to get more snow chances/snow in March in recent years than in December.  

[WX-PA]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Euro lost the southern stream low that was phasing in yesterday. It was that low that was keeping the baroclinic zone close to the coast. Now, it’s too northern stream dominant and the warm pool and ridge is really flexing east of New England. It could also be another reminder how we can’t seem to avoid the big warm up around the solstice.

 

 

 

Also tons of bad luck. It's just dates on the calendar really. I doubt the climate says you will be warm from December 17th through the 25th

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

In any year.

 

If NYC sees less than 2" for December, chances of an above normal season go down DRAMATICALLY. If it's less than 1", the stats are even more grim.

The only rare exception is 2015-2016. We lucked out with a HECS in January but overall no winter.

How did we do in December 2017? I remember that as a backloaded winter-- our first snow was actually in January 2018 that season from what I remember.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Yes we seem to get more snow chances/snow in March in recent years than in December.  

Yeah 2017-18 being a case in point.