December 2022

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

The storm signal not track is the most important takeaway right now but hopefully we have enough of a block in place to force a further east track. But it definitely makes sense for the jet fuel water temps offshore to try to pump a ridge east of the storm and force a westward track. On the other hand, maybe we can get the “convective feedback” to come in handy for once lol. 

The problem with the block is that it’s forecast to link up with the ridge to our east and become too south based. That’s  why so many GEPS and EPS along with the 0z OPs track over or west of NYC. Seems like anytime the ridge can build over the record warm pool it does.

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The problem with the block is that it’s forecast to link up with the ridge to our east and become too south based. That’s  why so many GEPS and EPS along with the 0z OPs track over or west of NYC. Seems like anytime the ridge can build over the record warm pool it does.

 

 

 

 

Is this warm pool and "south" based blocking which had never happened before a few years ago (at least I had never heard it mentioned by anyone) here to stay permanently, Chris?  If it's a feature of climate change, it may be a permanent feature?

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be rainy and windy. Winds could gust past 40 mph at times. High temperatures will reach the middle and perhaps upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 47°

Dry weather will return tomorrow and a quiet weekend is in store.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.1°; 15-Year: 44.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.6°; 15-Year: 45.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 47.0°

[North and West]

Exactly
My wife saw on twitter last night that we are going to get a blizzard next week.

Does she also follow the weather or just think you’re nuts? (And by nuts, I mean my wife every now and then asks me what do the weenies think)


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[MJO812]

Just now, North and West said:

Does she also follow the weather or just think you’re nuts? (And by nuts, I mean my wife every now and then asks me what do the weenies think)


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She doesn't but she thinks I'm weird 

[North and West]

She doesn't but she thinks I'm weird 

There are worse hobbies.


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[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this warm pool and "south" based blocking which had never happened before a few years ago (at least I had never heard it mentioned by anyone) here to stay permanently, Chris?  If it's a feature of climate change, it may be a permanent feature?

 

We’ll see. The GFS has been struggling the most with the ridge. Remember last weekend when the storm today was forecast by the GFS to get suppressed to South Carolina? That’s why we rely so much on the Euro,EPS, GEM, and GEPS for longer range forecasts. 

GFS too suppressed with SE Ridge and storm from last weekend

 

New runs closer to what the CMC and Euro were showing 

 

 

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

She doesn't but she thinks I'm weird 

You are weird. 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see. The GFS has been struggling the most with the ridge. Remember last weekend when the storm today was forecast by the GFS to get suppressed to South Carolina? That’s why we rely so much on the Euro,EPS, GEM, and GEPS for longer range forecasts. 

GFS too suppressed with SE Ridge and storm from last weekend

 

New runs closer to what the CMC and Euro were showing 

 

 

After that storm we are getting into a much colder pattern correct?

So perhaps the way we get snow this season is to forget about coastals and count more on the regular west to east tracking storms and clippers that are quick enough that they don't interact with warm Atlantic waters and drop a quick 2-4" and sometimes even 4-6"?  Back in the 80s and early 90s those were our primary time of snowfall event.  Those kinds of storms don't have to deal with the SE ridge or warm pools in the Atlantic.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, North and West said:

There are worse hobbies.


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Yeah he could be into the other kind of "snow" after all-- that'd be a lot worse lol

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

After that storm we are getting into a much colder pattern correct?

So perhaps the way we get snow this season is to forget about coastals and count more on the regular west to east tracking storms and clippers that are quick enough that they don't interact with warm Atlantic waters and drop a quick 2-4" and sometimes even 4-6"?  Back in the 80s and early 90s those were our primary time of snowfall event.  Those kinds of storms don't have to deal with the SE ridge or warm pools in the Atlantic.

 

If the storm wraps up too much and tracks over or west of NYC, then the coldest temperatures will miss to our SW. 
 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If the storm wraps up too much and tracks over or west of NYC, then the coldest temperatures will miss to our SW. 
 

 

 

Interesting-- is that good or bad?  Normally when you get the coldest temperatures over us the storm track is too suppressed.

 

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

After that storm we are getting into a much colder pattern correct?

So perhaps the way we get snow this season is to forget about coastals and count more on the regular west to east tracking storms and clippers that are quick enough that they don't interact with warm Atlantic waters and drop a quick 2-4" and sometimes even 4-6"?  Back in the 80s and early 90s those were our primary time of snowfall event.  Those kinds of storms don't have to deal with the SE ridge or warm pools in the Atlantic.

 

Much warmer now than the 80s. I don’t even know if a consistent pattern like that is possible now.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    35degs.(31/38) or Normal.

Month to date is    41.3[+0.1].         Should be    39.1[Normal] by the 24th.

Reached 46 here yesterday.

Nurse:   NO CHANGE DOCTOR    Doctor:    UNPLUG THE PATIENT.........................

Today:  T falling to 38, wind ne. to n. to w.-breezy early, cloudy, rain till 8pm, 35 tomorrow AM.

46*(92%RH) here at 6am.      47* at 8am.        47*/48* at Noon.        39* at 4pm.     Back up to 41* at 9pm.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Much warmer now than the 80s. I don’t even know if a consistent pattern like that is possible now.

..it is why analog forecasts often fail. Larry Cosgrove is one of the few who has mentioned that climate change needs to be factored in for seasonal forecasts. 

[EastonSN+]

Just like yesterday looked like a monster snowstorm was coming in, today looks more like 50/50 rain or snow.

If this change happened in the course of 12 hours, imagine what the changes could be by tomorrow morning. Could be massive rainstorm and wind or a blizzard. 

My advice is to listed to red taggers when they opine on the matter, for it's their profession.

EVEN IF THIS ONE IS RAIN, I am confident in the step-down progression of the pattern and would in no way affect my thoughts on the winter progression.

[wdrag]

Hi!  I'll add a verification snowfall map around 9A today... for the first part of the storm and then do the two day tomorrow.

 

Kudos to the long rangers for pushing the Canadian block potential impacts. Nothing a done deal but it does look interesting.    For now, biggest wintry impacts here in the interior next Thu-Fri per first attached WPC graphic; BUT, in my opinion I can see coastal cities getting 2"+ of snow all along I95, before any change to rain.  Why?   Better cold air resource nearby to the northeast.... I think that plays. 

What I see see in two of the three ensembles (EPS and GEPS) is one heck of digging trough into the Great Lakes-Northeast that has a better chance of spawning a southern storm that can take over, but unfortunately probably move directly nne along the coast to merge with the upper low barreling sewd through the Great Lakes.    That's my scenario...hopefully ballpark. ALL BETS OFF if the weaker GEFS prevails. 

Also, added EPS 2M temp for 12z Thu (6 days out), and the 850MB temp anomaly prior to yesterdays storm (12z/15 where GEFS and EPS initial analysis Wass identical, and the EPS modeled 12z/22 Thu 85-0 MB temp anomaly (due to change but by how much??). You can see projections start out a little better.  Hopefully this ensemble D6 projection is reasonable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The 12/16/2022 0z EPS 500 mb clusters. Still plenty of opportunity for a snowy solution. Whether the number of scenarios gives hope to the hopeless or hopelessness to the hopeful remains to be seen.

[North and West]

Just like yesterday looked like a monster snowstorm was coming in, today looks more like 50/50 rain or snow.
If this change happened in the course of 12 hours, imagine what the changes could be by tomorrow morning. Could be massive rainstorm and wind or a blizzard. 
My advice is to listed to red taggers when they opine on the matter, for it's their profession.
EVEN IF THIS ONE IS RAIN, I am confident in the step-down progression of the pattern and would in no way affect my thoughts on the winter progression.

You and your logic.


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[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

You and your logic.


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Thanks!

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

You and your logic.


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I have a little fly in the logic ;-)  What if this IS the pattern haha?

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I have a little fly in the logic ;-)  What if this IS the pattern haha?

 

Hey if a red tagger states this I would believe it. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey if a red tagger states this I would believe it. 

I'm not sure anyone knows.  I'm of the same inclination as you are, that we get much better chances in January and February.  That's partly based on climo and partly based on this particular block breaking down and a better one emerging later in the season.

Sometimes you have to completely break something down to get something better.

 

[rclab]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Does she also follow the weather or just think you’re nuts? (And by nuts, I mean my wife every now and then asks me what do the weenies think)


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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

She doesn't but she thinks I'm weird 

 

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

You are weird. 

Good morning N&W, Anthony, Nibor. Weird, when combined with love, does have a certain charm. As demonstrated by Anthony and his wife enjoying the snowflake song. As always ….

[Allsnow]

Looks like the pattern breaks down before NYE. Pac flow starts to dominate as we loose the epo. Hopefully we score or this was a huge waste 

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the pattern breaks down before NYE. Pac flow starts to dominate as we loose the epo. Hopefully we score or this was a huge waste 

Going with the GEFS for now as it has been outperforming in the LR. I wouldn't say this is a bad look. And many know this but during prime climo we don't need/want a raging epo ridge. The just less than perfect looks are the ones that produce it seems. As long as it isn't shut the blind we are in the game. Again, this isn't a bad look....not 100% perfect, but definitely not bad or PAC driven:

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just to add to the map I posted above....looks like a reload as the SCAN ridging is building and wants to feed the NAO.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the pattern breaks down before NYE. Pac flow starts to dominate as we loose the epo. Hopefully we score or this was a huge waste 

Based off what ? Not the euro weeklies. We all know how fickle those are though.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Going with the GEFS for now as it has been outperforming in the LR. I wouldn't say this is a bad look. And many know this but during prime climo we don't need/want a raging epo ridge. The just less than perfect looks are the ones that produce it seems. As long as it isn't shut the blind we are in the game. Again, this isn't a bad look....not 100% perfect, but definitely not bad or PAC driven:

Weeklies are excellent through mid Janaury .

[North and West]

Just like yesterday looked like a monster snowstorm was coming in, today looks more like 50/50 rain or snow.
If this change happened in the course of 12 hours, imagine what the changes could be by tomorrow morning. Could be massive rainstorm and wind or a blizzard. 
My advice is to listed to red taggers when they opine on the matter, for it's their profession.
EVEN IF THIS ONE IS RAIN, I am confident in the step-down progression of the pattern and would in no way affect my thoughts on the winter progression.

They said there'll be snow at Christmas
They said there'll be peace on Earth
But instead it just kept on raining


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