MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Gfs another coastal on 26 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Based on 144hr, it looks like the UK is in the CMC/ICON camp with high heights in Ontario mid-week and the follow up ULL moving eastward towards the lakes instead of diving south through the US. The 12z EC and 0z GFS are in the other camp, although both have a significant portion of ensemble members in the other camp. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs another coastal on 26 And? That damn model can't get things right 12 hours before an event. POS. I'm going to be like George Costanza and believe the opposite of whatever the GFS shows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Very slow moving storm on the gefs Looks great 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 At least Christmas will be cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Some of the set-ups the GFS is coming up with are incredibly dynamic and a little too perfect to believe at this juncture from such an inconsistent model. The lack of a solid 50/50 low for the 22nd-23rd is noted. But I love the antecedent and incoming high pressure locations nearly perfect. The zipper low on the 22nd kind of functions as the 50/50 but it's highly uncertain whether or not that would work out. The second storm is a classic Miller A but starts so far south. Usually those storms do not make it all the way up the coast. So there are lots of variables to keep an eye on with a sense that sooner or later something big could happen. WX/PT 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Euro just came in warmer. Rain for most of us. You have to go well to the NW to see the snow on this run, similar to today's storm. Definitely not what we wanted to see tonight with these rainy runs (except for GFS), considering these things tend to trend NW as they get closer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Euro just came in warmer. Rain for most of us. You have to go well to the NW to see the snow on this run, similar to today's storm. Definitely not what we wanted to see tonight with these rainy runs (except for GFS), considering these things tend to trend NW as they get closer. It’s still well early enough for corrections. I did like seeing the GFS east. I hope they don’t all go to a cutter and stay there - we have seen that happen a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 A week out but yeah, brutal runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Euro just came in warmer. Rain for most of us. You have to go well to the NW to see the snow on this run, similar to today's storm. Definitely not what we wanted to see tonight with these rainy runs (except for GFS), considering these things tend to trend NW as they get closer. Euro over amplification bias in play. Latest GFS is more east. I like where we're at right now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 4 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Euro just came in warmer. Rain for most of us. You have to go well to the NW to see the snow on this run, similar to today's storm. Definitely not what we wanted to see tonight with these rainy runs (except for GFS), considering these things tend to trend NW as they get closer. Not all of them trend northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6z Gefs looks good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said: 986 off the Carolina coast still big storm potential but looks mainly headed OTS this run. That's actually what you want to see right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 The storm track coming right over or just west of NYC is a concern since that warm pool and ridge east of New England is continuing to be a factor. The PNA actually is pretty good with a nice ridge out West. So this looks more like and issue with the ridge to our east causing the low to come too far west for big snows near the coast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 7 hours ago, eduggs said: If we get this look within 3 days, we can talk about a possible major snowstorm up and down the east coast. No complaints from me on this run. Yes, this could be the very unusual Carolinas to Maine snowstorm, haven't seen anything like this in years if it plays out to maximum potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm track coming right over or just west of NYC is a concern since that warm pool and ridge east of New England is continuing to be a factor. The PNA actually is pretty good with a nice ridge out West. So this looks more like and issue with the ridge to our east causing the low to come too far west for big snows near the coast. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm track coming right over or just west of NYC is a concern since that warm pool and ridge east of New England is continuing to be a factor. The PNA actually is pretty good with a nice ridge out West. So this looks more like and issue with the ridge to our east causing the low to come too far west for big snows near the coast. So this is an issue of poor spacing with the highs? That's unfortunate, since the Pacific often gets mentioned as the main factor, but even when it's good, then this happens. This does remind me of the 80s-early 90s pattern when storms like this were very frequent. We even considered this the "normal" pattern back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We shall see Be glad you weren't around between 1984 and 1993 lol basically every storm was just like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 This is why you don’t hype these things on social media nine days in advance. Even the, ahem, *peons* know this.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Be glad you weren't around between 1984 and 1993 lol basically every storm was just like that. I heard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, North and West said: This is why you don’t hype these things on social media nine days in advance. Even the, ahem, *peons* know this. . Exactly My wife saw on twitter last night that we are going to get a blizzard next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We shall see Yeah, the GEPS usually has a cold bias beyond a few days and the storm track is even further west than the EPS clusters and means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: Yeah, the GEPS usually has a cold bias beyond a few days and the storm track is even further west than the EPS clusters and means. Sounds like you think it'll track inland. Certainly not discounting that given Atlantic warm pool. It's likely why we've had to wait til Jan/Feb to get a significant snow event at the coast lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the GEPS usually has a cold bias beyond a few days and the storm track is even further west than the EPS clusters and means. Chris, how many more chances will we get before blocking breaks down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Sounds like you think it'll track inland. Certainly not discounting that given Atlantic warm pool. It's likely why we've had to wait til Jan/Feb to get a significant snow event at the coast lately Yeah we usually get our first significant snowfall around Jan 20th now. It's usually between January 20 - March 20 for our significant snowfall interval so a good two month period. Not the minor 1-3 kind of stuff that can happen basically anytime between November and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Sounds like you think it'll track inland. Certainly not discounting that given Atlantic warm pool. It's likely why we've had to wait til Jan/Feb to get a significant snow event at the coast lately Sounds like you are giving up over 1 model suite. Come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Sounds like you are giving up over 1 model suite. Come on. But you're giving up on winter if it doesn't work out lol. Numbers show that you should wait another month at least. If we don't get a 6"+ snowstorm by the end of January then worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But you're giving up on winter if it doesn't work out lol. Numbers show that you should wait another month at least. If we don't get a 6"+ snowstorm by the end of January then worry. I was joking You should know me by now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The storm track coming right over or just west of NYC is a concern since that warm pool and ridge east of New England is continuing to be a factor. The PNA actually is pretty good with a nice ridge out West. So this looks more like and issue with the ridge to our east causing the low to come too far west for big snows near the coast. The storm signal not track is the most important takeaway right now but hopefully we have enough of a block in place to force a further east track. But it definitely makes sense for the jet fuel water temps offshore to try to pump a ridge east of the storm and force a westward track. On the other hand, maybe we can get the “convective feedback” to come in handy for once lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 fits this seasons pattern so far if it’s true. On this forum, Im particularly cautious when too many jump at a storm signal or pattern change over seven days out. too many variables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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