December 2022

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

WTF did I just watch? This guy has a patreon... People like this should have their right to internet access revoked.

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Western Pa. Said storms up the cost are not typical in dec. they are more typical Jan/feb

Umm, what? Today's storm is up the coast. We just got skunked with an awful previous airmass. 12/26/10, 12/6/03, 12/5/02, 12/19/09, 12/25/02, 12/30/00, 12/16/20 etc etc etc?

What a joke. 

[donsutherland1]

The 12/15/2022 12z EPS clusters:

 

[eduggs]

The recurring problem we've seen this early winter, in a simplistic sense, is that no shortwaves are diving far enough south. Heights are too high, the baroclinic zone is too far north, and everything moves through the Great Lakes region. I'm worried about the same thing happening for the next threat. The GEFS and GEPS have the upper level low swinging through Ontario late next week. That's far from ideal. The EC is much better, but as the clusters show, there are several members that show a similar northerly evolution. Obviously at this time frame, the ensemble means are averages of widely varying solutions. But if the upper level low doesn't dive pretty far south through the central US, we are going to have many of the same problems that we've had thus far.

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

Oy pretty sure the word "superstorm" jinxed this storm.  

[Franklin0529]

Gfs isn't gonna get it done. 

[USCG RS]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

Into the Lakes?

Yup. It's why I know DC to Maine is going to be buried. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs isn't gonna get it done. 

Dude it's not fully out yet

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs isn't gonna get it done. 

I don't think it's out far enough yet. At least not on the sites that I have access to. 

[eduggs]

The first wave stays north up in Canada, which helps to buckle and amplify the follow up wave. The evolution happens pretty late next week.

[mannynyc]

9 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs isn't gonna get it done. 

Are you sure you're not looking at the 12/21 storm?

[Franklin0529]

My apologies been a long day/night. Newborn twins at home

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

My apologies been a long day/night. Newborn twins at home

Congrats! 

[Winterweatherlover]

Wave 1 is a coastal scraper on the 0Z GFS we'll see if there is a wave 2

  

[eduggs]

Judging from h5 at day 6.5, we're still very much in the game. Potent and amplifying trof incoming. 

[eduggs]

The offshore low shunts the baroclinic environment offshore initially, but it's hard to complain too much with that upper level setup 7 days out. There's cold air available and relatively high-end potential. Now we roll the dice and see what happens.

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, mannynyc said:

Seems like there is no transfer between the two lows, losing the major storm.

986 off the Carolina coast still big storm potential but looks mainly headed OTS this run.  

[USCG RS]

Just look at the H5. That's a huge signal. Cannot really ask for more this far out. 

If that H5 continues to show for the next few runs, we will have alot of happy ppl here.

[eduggs]

If we get this look within 3 days, we can talk about a possible major snowstorm up and down the east coast. No complaints from me on this run.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

My apologies been a long day/night. Newborn twins at home

Congratulations.

[Winterweatherlover]

GFS OTS

CMC rain (was OTS at 12Z)

 

So yes a lot still on the table here.  

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

GFS OTS

CMC rain (was OTS at 12Z)

 

So yes a lot still on the table here.  

That ots run dropped a half foot on me. 

[winterwx21]

CMC a rainstorm. To me that's the bigger concern than a miss, but it's very early and we certainly have good potential here. 

[SI Mailman]

Just now, Rjay said:

That ots run dropped a half foot on me. 

963 low just east of the benchmark at hr 198...  

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

GFS OTS

CMC rain (was OTS at 12Z)

 

So yes a lot still on the table here.  

The 0z CMC scenario is my fear. The upper level low does not dive far enough south initially, once again taking a path through the Lakes as the past several have done. So we don't lock in the cold air and the slp is late developing. This evolution also matches this afternoon's GEFS and GEPS ensembles.

[Franklin0529]

19 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Congrats! 

Thank you

[Franklin0529]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Congratulations.

Thank you

[George001]

Just now, eduggs said:

The 0z CMC scenario is my fear. The upper level low does not dive far enough south initially, once against taking a path through the Lakes as the past several have done. So we don't lock in the cold air and the slp is late developing. This evolution also matches this afternoon's GEFS and GEPS ensembles.

I agree completely, especially after watching Bernie Raynos video. I hope he’s wrong but I’ve been watching him for years and the guy knows his shit. He’s been wrong before though, hopefully we get some east shifts over the next few runs on the ensembles. 

[eduggs]

The ICON looks much closer to the CMC than the GFS. Both lack the low heights in Ontario at day 5.5 that forces the follow-up wave underneath. I'd rather have any other model on our side right now than the GFS. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

CMC a rainstorm. To me that's the bigger concern than a miss, but it's very early and we certainly have good potential here. 

Anything’s possible at this stage. We have a signal for a big storm which is just about all that’s given now. Minor fluctuations could mean a raging cutter driven washout and Pittsburgh blizzard or an offshore slider.