December 2022

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, North and West said:

Can you interpret for the pions among us? tyvm


.

Alot of members are really strong along the coast.  Way too early yet but this is an impressive mean this far out.

[ILoveWinter]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of members are really strong along the coast.  Way too early yet but this is an impressive mean this far out.

Yea agree. I'm not as much of an expert as many of you (including you Ant) but one thing I do recognize is something anomalous with these model runs. Quite rare to have a mean like this (wow at the QPF) 8 days out, hopefully this continues.

[bluewave]

This will be one event when it’s tough to use ensemble means since there are several areas of low pressure. The Euro has a Miller B and an attempted phase of a southern stream low. So the mean is trying to smooth out too many different low positions. The one thing we know is that the 22-24th will have the highest tides of the month with the new moon. So coastal flooding could be an issue if the low cuts off to our SW. The only thing that I can say about the EPS mean is that an unusually high number of members have lows under 980 mb from 8-10 days out. This would mean that this could be a very intense storm with high winds and heavy precipitation. We almost never see so many deep lows on an ensemble mean this far out.

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This will be one event when it’s tough to use ensemble means since there are several areas of low pressure. The Euro has a Miller B and an attempted phase of a southern stream low. So the mean is trying to smooth out too many different low positions. The one thing we know is that the 22-24th will have the highest tides of the month with the new moon. So coastal flooding could be an issue if the low cuts off to our SW. The only thing that I can say about the EPS mean is that an unusually high number of members have lows under 980 mb from 8-10 days out. This would mean that this could be a very intense storm with high winds and heavy precipitation. We almost never see so many deep lows on an ensemble mean this far out.

 

0z eps has the PNA quickly rising around the storm timeframe and staying positive .

 

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

It cuts into Buffalo, but the airmass is so cold and the low is so strong it actually snows EAST of the low. That really is wild, and with a storm this powerful it’s very possible.

I have no clue what’ll happen with this storm and hopefully it’s a good outcome but it won’t be snowing east of a low like that. Maybe there would be a lot of front end snow beforehand but we want the low to be tracking over the ocean. The signal for there to be a big storm and supporting upper air pattern is what we care about now. 

[lee59]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of members are really strong along the coast.  Way too early yet but this is an impressive mean this far out.

Yea between record cold heading into the upper mid west and a potential bomb nor'easter along the east coast, the ingredients could be in place. Of course still a week away.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

0z eps has the PNA quickly rising around the storm timeframe and staying positive .

 

Yeah, the rising PNA and record block over the pole is the storm signal. But the snowfall forecast for the coast will come down to the exact TPV track. If the TPV cuts off to our SW like the Euro, we will have less snow. But the CMC track across the BM would be snowier. 

 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, Regjohn1 said:

How did you make that graphic?

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

[Volcanic Winter]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

weak la ninas are our second snowiest state, and la ninas that come after el ninos are actually the best

 

So that’s what I was asking, why or how are Niñas after Niños so good for us? How does the ENSO state from the previous year influence the patterns of the current state?

Is it just a statistical finding or is there theory behind it?

Edit: Nevermind Liberty, just got to your follow up reply, appreciate it. Of course if anyone else wanted to chime in, thanks. 

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

93-94 and 95-96 more than made up for the late 90s.....I wasn't even interested in winter anymore after 95-96 I figured it was the best that could ever happen and no reason to care about winter anymore because it could never get better than that lol  I don't even remember anything after 95-96 until the historic warmth of 01-02

and then 02-03 came lol.

00/01 was a really good above average snowfall winter as well.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

So that’s what I was asking, why or how are Niñas after Niños so good for us? How does the ENSO state from the previous year influence the patterns of the current state?

Is it just a statistical finding or is there theory behind it?

It’s pretty variable on Long Island for which combination or sequence ENSO states produces the most snow.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1995-1996	77.1	La Niña after El Niño
2	1977-1978	68.0	El Niño after El Niño
3	2017-2018	65.9	La Niña after La Niña
4	2014-2015	63.7	El Niño after neutral
-	2013-2014	63.7	neutral after neutral
5	2004-2005	58.8	El Niño after neutral
6	2010-2011	55.3	La Niña after El Nino
7	2002-2003	54.6	El Nino after neutral
8	2009-2010	53.8	El Nino after La Niña
9	1966-1967	50.8	La Niña after El Niño
10	2012-2013	46.9	neutral after La Nina

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the rising PNA and record block over the pole is the storm signal. But the snowfall forecast for the coast will come down to the exact TPV track. If the TPV cuts off to our SW like the Euro, we will have less snow. But the CMC track across the BM would be snowier. 

 

Eps is further east and impressive this far out .

All the ingredients are there for a huge storm but it is a week away. 

[EastonSN+]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the rising PNA and record block over the pole is the storm signal. But the snowfall forecast for the coast will come down to the exact TPV track. If the TPV cuts off to our SW like the Euro, we will have less snow. But the CMC track across the BM would be snowier. 

 

I saw this on the individual ensembles where the mean is misleading due to the high spread/multiple lows.

I do have a question, if the coastal low occludes/vertically stacks SW of us never reaching our latitude, what would that mean for precip types?

In the Feb 2010 storm, when the storm occluded my area switched to snow after a full day of rain and ended up with 8 inches.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is further east and impressive this far out .

All the ingredients are there for a huge storm but it is a week away. 

This is the one to watch for sure. A variety of high impacts not just snow. Coastal flooding and beach erosion on a level we haven’t seen in years. We have had a long run of swell and resultant erosion already this month, including this current storm. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is further east and impressive this far out .

All the ingredients are there for a huge storm but it is a week away. 

I am not sure if the EPS is further east due to the smoothing out of the various TPV locations. The members like the OP that dig more to the SW over the Tennessee Valley are warmer with less snow. The colder members that plow more across the Ohio Valley have a BM Miller B with more snow. Notice the ridge poking into New England from the east on the OP. 

 

 

[Tatamy]

I give you guys a lot of credit with these long range progs.  I am dealing with an event out here today and the models literally cannot tell me if I am going to be throwing ice melt on my driveway or dragging the snow blower out of the shed just 6 hours from now.

[bluewave]

The ECMWF has a product called cluster scenario. This breaks down the EPS members into clusters. So it gives more details than just a mean that combines everything. I believe some of the mets in the New England forum have been posting these. Unfortunately, the free site doesn’t have the zoomed in NA chart but the whole NH. It’s more helpful than an ensemble mean.

 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/cluster_plot_legA?base_time=202212150000&cluster=192_240&parameter=500

 

[EastonSN+]

I believe the Cleveland superbomb primary low made it further north than the primary low depicted on a lot of the ensembles. If the primary low remains inland BUT never reaches our latitude before kicking east with a high to our north......

[brooklynwx99]

looks like the 06z EPS would end up more favorable than 00z... stronger block would lead to more confluence, and the initial vort is stronger as well. wish we could see this play out

[MANDA]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I am not sure if the EPS is further east due to the smoothing out of the various TPV locations. The members like the OP that dig more to the SW over the Tennessee Valley are warmer with less snow. The colder members that plow more across the Ohio Valley have a BM Miller B with more snow. Notice the ridge poking into New England from the east on the OP. 

 

 

I like how the western ridging has been trending inland over the last 2-3 cycles.  Would like to see final outcome be about 110W but trending inland from OFF the west coast as in a few cycles back is a big step in my opinion.  PNA going positive is also something we've needed.  No matter,  the 500 MB evolution on all of the mid and long range guidance is a great signal for major east coast storm THREAT.  Details yet to be resolved but dynamic pattern upcoming.

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like the 06z EPS would end up more favorable than 00z... stronger block would lead to more confluence, and the initial vort is stronger as well. wish we could see this play out

Pattern is poised to have the feature over SW Canada belly under the NE Canada HT anomaly and dig into the Ohio Valley and then head east before lifting NE.  Impressive look.

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ECMWF has a product called cluster scenario. This breaks down the EPS members into clusters. So it gives more details than just a mean that combines everything. I believe some of the mets in the New England forum have been posting these. Unfortunately, the free site doesn’t have the zoomed in NA chart but the whole NH. It’s more helpful than an ensemble mean.

 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/cluster_plot_legA?base_time=202212150000&cluster=192_240&parameter=500

 

I use them all the time. There's also a 1000 mb cluster scenario. Here's what the two largest clusters look like for 12/23 (the first with 19 members has a Miller B-type scenario and probably comprises all 9 of the individual members showing 10" or more snow in the NYC-EWR areas; the second large group is very unfavorable for the coastal plain). I flipped the charts so it is easier to view North America.

[Eduardo]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

weak la ninas are our second snowiest state, and la ninas that come after el ninos are actually the best

 

Yeah but what about Niña’s following Niña’s following Niña’s? 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The potential negative for this being a big snow event at the coast is that even the ensemble means have many tucked in members from 8-9 days out. We usually want something further offshore at this time range. So the short term NW trend we usually get with our  bigger snowstorms doesn’t end up too close to us. Many of the big ones like Jan 96 and Jan 16 start out more suppressed and creep NW closer to the BM in later runs. This time the means are clustering close to the BM from 8-9 days out. So a really amped system can keep creeping NW is later runs like the 0z OP Euro or the 12z CMC yesterday. 

Or it can also keep trending eastward and then coming back northwest as we get closer to the event.

This time you have a west based negative NAO, rising PNA and plenty of cold air.

[bluewave]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Or it can also keep trending eastward and then coming back northwest as we get closer to the event.

This time you have a west based negative NAO, rising PNA and plenty of cold air.

We would need a lost and found scenario where the next several runs start backing off the amplitude only to come back in later runs.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would need a lost and found scenario where the next several runs start backing off the amplitude only to come back in later runs.

Agree

[forkyfork]

it's a capture scenario and the euro has a bias of being too phased with those

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

00/01 was a really good above average snowfall winter as well.

My only complaint about '96 was that the towns and oounties never opened up turning lanes.  They just piled up the snowbanks on the road.  Commuting was a nightmare for many weeks.  Public Works Departments never took the initiative to remove the large snow piles from the road.  The 29.5" storm was amazing.  It just kept coming down, and coming down, and even more coming down...

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Yeah, we would want to see runs cutting the low of to our SW like the 12z CMC and 0z Euro disappear over the next several days to have a shot a significant snow at the coast from this one. But it all depends on how much the cutoff digs before turning the corner. While the cluster scenario can be more helpful, the means need to start backing off a bit so we have some room for them to come NW under 120 hrs and not be too warm.

 

 

 

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   35degs.(31/38) or Normal   {I use the 1960's averages, so reduce by 3.2degs.!     And  congratulations---we are having  a December which would might  be considered Normal  for the 1960's--- at least for part of the month}

We will never get any snow here this month at this rate:       0% before the 23rd.      Has remained constant for days.     EURO has 7" on the 23rd---not the Ens., however.

After some 1st Inning problems, the GFS pitches a Shutout:

Month to date is   41.5[+0.2].        Should be   39.1[+0.1] by the 23rd.

Reached 39 here yesterday.

Today:    Rising to low 40's, wind e.-breezy, rain/mix? starting at 1pm and continuing to tomorrow, 42 tomorrow AM.

37*(70%RH) here at 6am. {was 35* at 1am.}     40* at 9am.      42* at Noon.     45* at 3pm.     46* at 7pm.