December 2022

[brooklynwx99]

wow. what a look

[Eduardo]

6 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Can't El Nino also hurt us if it's too strong? I feel like we'll be at risk of swinging from a persistent Nina to a powerful Nino like 2016 and just torch anyway.

Of course I'm probably, hopefully wrong.

Yes of course, although don’t forget that the greatest snowfall dump of many of our lifetimes (Jan. 2016) came during that “powerful Niño”’you refer to.

Feels like we need to hit the reset button on the PAC though.  We can luck ourselves into some fun like we did, for example, in December 2020 (and we’ll probably see some action this winter too at some point). But if you’re looking for sustained cold and storms, it’s pretty difficult when the PAC stubbornly refuses to cooperate for years on end.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Jeez.  So much for not hitting cities.

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

we're getting at least one KU imo

 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ditto

Made my day!  Maybe the most bullish storm signal any of us can ask for .

[SnoSki14]

GEFS show multiple threats

[Intensewind002]

37 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Jeez.  So much for not hitting cities.

Didn’t they already get another significant tornado earlier this year too?

[EasternLI]

There's even another shortwave after that lol. Weenie 18z gefs run. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Jeez.  So much for not hitting cities.

And the same exact neighborhoods were hit in March of this year. 

[mattinpa]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS show multiple threats

Hopeful for sure. People were talking about late December being more favorable.

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

And the same exact neighborhoods were hit in March of this year. 

My thoughts are with them. December tornadoes again. My region was hit bad last year (2021) but fortunately I avoided everything but some flooding nearby.

[CIK62]

A Wee-Bit closer to 1"?       Imagine having  to cheer for 1" in this pattern.       But keeps showing up like this for days.

 

[Nibor]

GFS whiffing south east. CMC showing a phasing bomb for eastern LI and NE.

[Nibor]

Euro is wild for the 23rd. 

[George001]

9 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Euro is wild for the 23rd. 

It cuts into Buffalo, but the airmass is so cold and the low is so strong it actually snows EAST of the low. That really is wild, and with a storm this powerful it’s very possible.

[brooklynwx99]

this is one of the most insane signals i’ve ever seen, no joke. the upper low is already closing off on the mean

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Yes of course, although don’t forget that the greatest snowfall dump of many of our lifetimes (Jan. 2016) came during that “powerful Niño”’you refer to.

Feels like we need to hit the reset button on the PAC though.  We can luck ourselves into some fun like we did, for example, in December 2020 (and we’ll probably see some action this winter too at some point). But if you’re looking for sustained cold and storms, it’s pretty difficult when the PAC stubbornly refuses to cooperate for years on end.

weak la ninas are our second snowiest state, and la ninas that come after el ninos are actually the best

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, jm1220 said:

And the same exact neighborhoods were hit in March of this year. 

Why is this happening this December? I don't remember anything like this happening in December 2010.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Ideally we want a weak Niño which is better for snow than neutral, right? And I think I’ve read a Modoki is even better, and that a Niña following a Niño is good as well?

What would be the mechanism for the latter question; how would the ENSO state from a year prior impact a new Niña? Or is it just something that emerged statistically?

Apologies for the barrage of questions, this is very interesting. 

the STJ from a previous el nino can remain juiced for the la nina the following season.....la ninas after el ninos are the closest we will ever get to a slam dunk winter

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean we just had 20/21 which was above average.

We just had bad winters 3 of last 4 years. We had 7 below average snowfall winters in the 90s with 4 in a row at the end with endless warmth.

I guarantee we WILL see another 01/02, 13/14, etc. It's all just patterns/cyclical. 

May they be a half a degree warmer, of course, but they are not gone. 

93-94 and 95-96 more than made up for the late 90s.....I wasn't even interested in winter anymore after 95-96 I figured it was the best that could ever happen and no reason to care about winter anymore because it could never get better than that lol  I don't even remember anything after 95-96 until the historic warmth of 01-02

and then 02-03 came lol.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

And one of them, 2 years ago, was above average snowfall with a monster snowstorm.

That was because it came right after an el nino

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed. I think our northern suburbs can do really well with the 23rd storm as the air mass ahead will be a little colder. 

After this storm the Arctic is unleashed. 

I really feel that suppression will be our biggest concern after Christmas

then it would be another 80s winter.  Northern suburbs always do well, near the coast it's much more of a crapshoot

 

[LibertyBell]

On 12/13/2022 at 5:24 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Hard to answer without being long winded. 

In short: I vastly prefer cold weather to warm and I’m saddened by the way our Decembers have trended. The rate of warming is most during December IIRC and every torched day is a reminder of where we’re heading. 
 

What I would do or not do differently doesn’t factor into it, though my wife and I are hikers but prefer cold weather / winter hiking. We just got back from a two week hiking trip to the northern part of Iceland, our fourth time there. 

We live in a part of the country with pronounced seasonality; reminders that we’re losing part of our historical winters makes me sad. Doubly and triply so when that falls on the biggest holiday, partly derived from Yule - a strictly winter affair. 

The holidays need to be moved to late January.....

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, MANDA said:

I'll take this over the 12Z OP EURO from yesterday.  Not ideal but at least we don't torch over Christmas weekend.  Nice to see the OP and EPS in better sync overnight.  That is true Arctic HP extending into the nations mid-section.  Will spread / ooze eastward but by far the direct discharge is down the front range into the plains and down to Texas.  I'd rather this honestly.  More direct discharge into the east leads to suppression and cold and dry.  This opens the door for opportunity with the 12/22 - 12/23 event, at least inland and then perhaps beyond for larger part of this forum.

It's actually better to see a cutter and the region flooded with warmth.

Why?

Because this kind of track doesn't reset the pattern, you'll see coastal hugger after coastal hugger.

An actual cutter with no secondary would reset the pattern entirely-- we've seen this multiple times in other backloaded winters.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Nina going to Nina 

We're actually in the middle of the cold state of the PDO so a -PNA is expected.  Just don't expect much snow in December and look forward to January when the Pacific doesn't really matter as much.

 

[EasternLI]

It's going to get very interesting in the strat with the re-energized tropical signal going into the Pacific IMO. In addition to that, WQBO acts as an amplifier to the phase 7 forcing on the vortex as well. As per the research. Really curious to see what happens here. And again, when Ed is talking like this. It's a very good idea to sit up straight and pay attention. As he normally points out flaws with how things could happen. He's not doing that this year. The quest for a -AO winter, as a whole, continues with high interest. 

 

[LoboLeader1]

[MJO812]

Eps is just insane for the 23

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Clouds will increase and a soaking rain will arrive. Snow changing to rain will overspread interior sections. High temperatures will reach the lower and perhaps middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 42°

Newark: 44°

Philadelphia: 47°

The rain will continue tomorrow. Some interior sections could see additional snowfall.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 45.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 46.0°; 15-Year: 47.0°

[LoboLeader1]

Reached 36 for high here yesterday, 30 for a low last nite. Currently 31F.

[North and West]

Eps is just insane for the 23

Can you interpret for the pions among us? tyvm


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