December 2022

[bluewave]

The primary low is a Great Lakes cutter so the coast will be too warm. If the primary got squashed to Pittsburgh, then the secondary would take a colder track SE of LI with good coastal snows. The secondary tracking right over NYC is only great for the interior crew.

[donsutherland1]

The probability of snowfall (measurable and significant) is notably higher than climatology during strong blocking patterns, especially when the PNA is positive at this time of year (and all of January).

Higher probabilities are not guarantees. While the extreme blocking during 2010-2011 led to a big December blizzard and very snowy 30 days albeit after a long wait from late November, there have been cases where strong blocking did not produce such an outcome. Winter 1958-1959 is one such example.  

That the AO is forecast to remain negative through much or all of the remainder of December and the PNA will slowly move to somewhat positive levels in the closing 7-10 days of December--a slow move illustrated by the statistical guidance--suggests at least a window of opportunity with increased potential. Certainly, the forecast pattern is much better than a warm EPO+/AO+ pattern that all but assures little or no meaningful prospects for snowfall.

It is also noted that the EPS weeklies that came out yesterday continued to show colder than normal weather during December 19-26. They also flipped to a colder outcome for the following week, as well. The CFSv2 has now moved into general agreement with the EPS weeklies, after having shown unbroken warmth in the East through December.

Finally, since ChatGPT, an AI language model has garnered significant press coverage in recent days, I asked it to construct a poem that captures the sentiments of some of us who are eagerly awaiting or hoping for a big snowfall. Here's what it produced:

The snowstorm is coming, they say
It's just a matter of time
But as the days go by
And the skies remain clear and blue
I can't help but wonder
If this storm will ever arrive

I wait and watch
As the world goes on around me
People bustling, living their lives
But I am stuck in this state of anticipation
Hoping for the snow to fall

I long to see the world blanketed in white
To hear the gentle crunch of snow underfoot
To feel the cold embrace of winter
But it seems that it will never come

And so I wait
Patiently, restlessly
Hoping that one day
The storm will arrive
And I can finally experience
The joy of a big snowfall.

 

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Remember, getting pushed back doesn’t mean we won’t eventually get a 4-6” snow in NYC. While we don’t have the 2010 record blocking, models were showing snowstorms long range for all of December 2010.  So the snowy pattern got  delayed by 3 weeks or more depending on the model. But sometimes pushback patterns ultimately disappoint. So we would be happy with something in between a shutout and historic KU. Most would be happy with a 4-6”+ event in NYC from late December into early January. Plus several 1-3” 2-4” type snows to out us into double digits by January 10th.

What would it take for the pattern to favor a 12+ vs 6-12 vs 4-6, Chris? Do SECS vs MECS vs HECS all require slightly different patterns-- and is something missing preventing it from being a "historic" pattern (I assume it's the Pacific but that is supposed to get better at the end of the month correct?)

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The probability of snowfall (measurable and significant) is notably higher than climatology during strong blocking patterns, especially when the PNA is positive at this time of year (and all of January).

Higher probabilities are not guarantees. While the extreme blocking during 2010-2011 led to a big December blizzard and very snowy 30 days albeit after a long wait from late November, there have been cases where strong blocking did not produce such an outcome. Winter 1958-1959 is one such example.  

That the AO is forecast to remain negative through much or all of the remainder of December and the PNA will slowly move to somewhat positive levels in the closing 7-10 days of December--a slow move illustrated by the statistical guidance--suggests at least a window of opportunity with increased potential. Certainly, the forecast pattern is much better than a warm EPO+/AO+ pattern that all but assures little or no meaningful prospects for snowfall.

It is also noted that the EPS weeklies that came out yesterday continued to show colder than normal weather during December 19-26. They also flipped to a colder outcome for the following week, as well. The CFSv2 has now moved into general agreement with the EPS weeklies, after having shown unbroken warmth in the East through December.

Finally, since ChatGPT, an AI language model has garnered significant press coverage in recent days, I asked it to construct a poem that captures the sentiments of some of us who are eagerly awaiting or hoping for a big snowfall. Here's what it produced:

The snowstorm is coming, they say
It's just a matter of time
But as the days go by
And the skies remain clear and blue
I can't help but wonder
If this storm will ever arrive

I wait and watch
As the world goes on around me
People bustling, living their lives
But I am stuck in this state of anticipation
Hoping for the snow to fall

I long to see the world blanketed in white
To hear the gentle crunch of snow underfoot
To feel the cold embrace of winter
But it seems that it will never come

And so I wait
Patiently, restlessly
Hoping that one day
The storm will arrive
And I can finally experience
The joy of a big snowfall.

 

Thats amazing Don!  Where did you download the AI Chat program from?

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats amazing Don!  Where did you download the AI Chat program from?

 

 

 

You can currently access it at chat.openai.com

 

[mikem81]

I am very confused by the mood in here. The next 2 weeks look great after the Friday rainstorm. the Canadian OP has a cutter next week. The ensembles and GFS/Euro OP all look good with plenty of coastal potential

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

What would it take for the pattern to favor a 12+ vs 6-12 vs 4-6, Chris? Do SECS vs MECS vs HECS all require slightly different patterns-- and is something missing preventing it from being a "historic" pattern (I assume it's the Pacific but that is supposed to get better at the end of the month correct?)

 

Anytime we get a Rockies Ridge following a strong -AO drop we can get something 12”+. We didn’t even need the -AO for Islip to have the record snows last January. All it took was a solid +PNA pattern. But historic events like January 2016 require both a favorable Atlantic and Pacific. Long Island did historic in March 2018 with the March wavelengths. Getting the trough out of the West is more important in December than JFM. While this current pattern is technically becoming more +PNA, there is still a lingering trough in the Western and Central US kicking up the SE Ridge. So sometimes looking at the raw indices doesn’t tell you everything we need to know about the pattern. Primary’s tracking to the Great Lakes and secondary’s hugging too close have been the preferred storm track in this regime. A pattern change will mean height rises in the Rockies and more of a benchmark track.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Anytime we get a Rockies Ridge following a strong -AO drop we can get something 12”+. We didn’t even need the -AO for Islip to have the record snows last January. All it took was a solid +PNA pattern. But historic events like January 2016 require both a favorable Atlantic and Pacific. Long Island did historic in March 2018 with the March wavelengths. Getting the trough out of the West is more important in December than JFM. While this current pattern is technically becoming more +PNA, there is still a lingering trough in the Western and Central US kicking up the SE Ridge. So sometimes looking at the raw indices doesn’t tell you everything we need to know about the pattern. 

and it sounds like the normal progression from December to January is also going to be a help as December is more sensitive to what's going on in the West than January is?

 

also what you described has been the pattern of the last few years-- since after 2017-18 anyway, we have either seen coastal hugger tracks that favor inland areas or east of benchmark tracks that favor eastern long island and southern NJ-- I guess that is because we have had thread the needle patterns the last few years?

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

I am very confused by the mood in here. The next 2 weeks look great after the Friday rainstorm. the Canadian OP has a cutter next week. The ensembles and GFS/Euro OP all look good with plenty of coastal potential

and we just had a minor snow event, you'd think that would be enough for at least a week since it was our first snow event of the season.

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Anytime we get a Rockies Ridge following a strong -AO drop we can get something 12”+. We didn’t even need the -AO for Islip to have the record snows last January. All it took was a solid +PNA pattern. But historic events like January 2016 require both a favorable Atlantic and Pacific. Long Island did historic in March 2018 with the March wavelengths. Getting the trough out of the West is more important in December than JFM. While this current pattern is technically becoming more +PNA, there is still a lingering trough in the Western and Central US kicking up the SE Ridge. So sometimes looking at the raw indices doesn’t tell you everything we need to know about the pattern. Primary’s tracking to the Great Lakes and secondary’s hugging too close have been the preferred storm track in this regime. A pattern change will mean height rises in the Rockies and more of a benchmark track.

I think the Pacific will always be a problem this year but I also think the Atlantic blocking will stick around.

Usually bouts of -4 AOs in December have blocking later on as well. 

So Jan-March will prob be the best timeframe for us to get a big snow event because we don't need an amazing Pacific. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think the Pacific will always be a problem this year but I also think the Atlantic blocking will stick around.

Usually bouts of -4 AOs in December have blocking later on as well. 

So Jan-March will prob be the best timeframe for us to get a big snow event because we don't need an amazing Pacific. 

I’m on the same page. We really need water temps to cool to start getting the coast in the game. Like bluewave has been saying, anytime there’s a primary in the Midwest the winds ahead of any transfer will torch the coast. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Not trying to be funny or condescending in any way, but I really did a double take when I realized it’s only Dec 13th today. We seem way too on edge for being not even two weeks into December. 
 

I said something similar before, but think back to last year. My first winter with you guys, signed up in Jan but read the whole Dec thread here. It was dark (and rightly so because the month sucked). We’re in such a better spot with actual seasonal cold right now compared to ‘Merry Torchmas’ 2021. 
 

We really have nothing to worry about. Last year couldn’t have been any more hostile to kick winter off and Jan turned out pretty good. We’re starting from a way higher baseline this year, by default. 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Not trying to be funny or condescending in any way, but I really did a double take when I realized it’s only Dec 13th today. We seem way too on edge for being not even two weeks into December. 
 

I said something similar before, but think back to last year. My first winter with you guys, signed up in Jan but read the whole Dec thread here. It was dark (and rightly so because the month sucked). We’re in such a better spot with actual seasonal cold right now compared to ‘Merry Torchmas’ 2021. 
 

We really have nothing to worry about. Last year couldn’t have been any more hostile to kick winter off and Jan turned out pretty good. We’re starting from a way higher baseline this year, by default. 

It’s pretty much the same thing every December. Late November  models start showing a great pattern in early December. Then the first NYC 4-6”+ snowstorm gets pushed back into mid-December. Other years like this one gets pushed back to late December.  In reality, NYC has only had a  few 4”+ snows between December 1-10. Some years like last, the late December snow got pushed back to early January. But at least it eventually arrived.

NYC Dec 1-10 snows over 4” since 2000

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	14.0	2003-12-06	0
			0
			0
2	6.0	2002-12-06	0
-			0
3	5.8	2005-12-10	0
			0
4	4.6	2017-12-10	0
			0

 

[CIK62]

Snowfall % continues to disappoint around here for the next 15 days:      T's OK  and at least one sub 20 reading,( Dec. 21-28) looks good.

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m on the same page. We really need water temps to cool to start getting the coast in the game. Like bluewave has been saying, anytime there’s a primary in the Midwest the winds ahead of any transfer will torch the coast. 

Water temps are 52-58 wow that's warm

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s pretty much the same thing every December. Late November  models start showing a great pattern in early December. Then the first NYC 4-6”+ snowstorm gets pushed back into mid-December. Other years like this one gets pushed back to late December.  In reality, NYC has only had a  few 4”+ snows between December 1-10. Some years like last, the late December snow got pushed back to early January. But at least it eventually arrived.

NYC Dec 1-10 snows over 4” since 2000

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	14.0	2003-12-06	0
			0
			0
2	6.0	2002-12-06	0
-			0
3	5.8	2005-12-10	0
			0
4	4.6	2017-12-10	0
			0

 

End of January is the dividing line, if you don't get the first 4-6 inch storm by then it's going to be a bad season.

 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

End of January is the dividing line, if you don't get the first 4-6 inch storm by then it's going to be a bad season.

 

Ha of course-you're down to 6 weeks or so at that point....

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Ha of course-you're down to 6 weeks or so at that point....

Yeah it's pretty much over by that point.

There's a stat for pretty much everything so there has to be a stat for this too.

When's the latest we had a 4-6 inch or more snowfall and still had at least 24 inches of snow that season?  24 inches should be considered minimum for a C season.  30 inches for a B season and 40 inches for an A season

 

 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

End of January is the dividing line, if you don't get the first 4-6 inch storm by then it's going to be a bad season.

 

Every bad winter has one of those storms in mid to late january

[Stormlover74]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yeah it's pretty much over by that point.

There's a stat for pretty much everything so there has to be a stat for this too.

When the latest we had a 4-6 inch or more snowfall and still had at least 24 inches of snow that season?  24 inches should be considered minimum for a C season.  30 inches for a B season and 40 inches for an A season

 

 

2004-05. Ended up with over 40

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Every bad winter has one of those storms in mid to late january

True even the 80s had that.  Maybe we should raise the minimum to either 6 or 8 inches then.

 

[Volcanic Winter]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Water temps are 52-58 wow that's warm

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

2004-05. Ended up with over 40

Was it in January that we had our first SECS? I don't remember when the first significant storm was-- I thought we had snow in December too, but those were of the minor variety-- and those hit the Cape much harder right?

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Every bad winter has one of those storms in mid to late january

01-02 and 11-12 the benchmarks for awful winters each had a 4 inch storm around 1/20.    It was a 10 day winter both of those years.  We were in the 70's and 80's by March lol.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Volcanic Winter said:

Water temps dont actually matter as much as storm track does.  We've seen SECS in November with warmer temps than this.

 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Was it in January that we had our first SECS? I don't remember when the first significant storm was-- I thought we had snow in December too, but those were of the minor variety-- and those hit the Cape much harder right?

 

Most of the area saw little until 1/22 but yeah some spots picked up something in late December 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Water temps dont actually matter as much as storm track does.  We've seen SECS in November with warmer temps than this.

 

I think Bluewave pondered this a couple weeks ago when I asked, but I do wonder how much longer elevated SST’s will help us rather than start to hurt. Eventually it’s going to be too much thermal energy offshore and we’re going to be too warm at the coast. 
 

Did someone mention that the elevated SST’s has to do with rising overnight lows and dew points? 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

TORCH

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Water temps dont actually matter as much as storm track does.  We've seen SECS in November with warmer temps than this.

 

you just need northerly winds really.  We had a big storm post Sanday in early Nov but winds were out of the NNE.

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

TORCH

Torch water + Cold and stormy