EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Red taggers out there - will the good period not arrive? Percentage chance of not arriving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Are you really comparing those areas to here ? We don't even know what's going to happen this weekend. Don't worry about next week just yet. The point is the "action" has been to our west for weeks...and there remains no signs of a significant pattern change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: And that's how far out the models should go out . Has yes, would have avoided the panic in 2010 and 2018 as well! I just had 1.5 inches of snow and even the coast had an inch, already better than some good blocking periods this early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The point is the "action" has been to our west for weeks...and there remains no signs of a significant pattern change.. The PNA going positive isn't a good sign? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The point is the "action" has been to our west for weeks...and there remains no signs of a significant pattern change.. No signs? Other than all ensemble guidance showing it and red taggers like Forky and Brooklynwx99 saying it will happen? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: No signs? Other than all ensemble guidance showing it and red taggers like Forky and Brooklynwx99 saying it will happen? If either one could predict with near certainty what will happen they would be billionaires... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The PNA going positive isn't a good sign? Can we wait to see how long that lasts for???? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Pattern change = snow here. Got it. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: And that's how far out the models should go out . Yeah, 0.6 is the effective skill forecast number on the verification charts.The EPS, GEPS, and GEFS all dip below that number around 10 days out. So that is the range of usefulness. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gefs/ops/geo/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Pattern change = snow here. Got it. That's what people want when they hear pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's what people want when they hear pattern change. Pattern change doesn't mean snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Dan76 said: Pattern change doesn't mean snow? No it doesn't but we all want snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 36degs.(32/39) or Normal. Month to date is 42.8[+1.2]. Should be 40.1[+0.7] by the 21st. Reached 37 here yesterday. Today: 36-39, wind nw., m.sunny, 28 tomorrow AM. 27*(70%RH) here at 6am. 30* at 10am. 33* at Noon. Reached 39* at 3pm. 36* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 there are some patterns where you do have to worry about cutters, but this is absolutely not one of them. I'm not concerned that there are some random LR OP runs that show them when the ensembles look this good at day 8. there have been OP runs that have shown multiple coastals as well, like last evening's 18z GFS not even sure what some of the "pattern is getting pushed back" stuff is about. the PV is in SE Canada in the medium range and this is as good as the Pacific has looked since 2014-15 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Get them while they are available!!...All proceeds will go to paying a developmental AI team to develop a new weather model! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 ^ point proven 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Pattern change doesn't mean snow? To me a pattern change is a pattern that lasts for 3+ weeks and is cold and snowy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Red taggers out there - will the good period not arrive? Percentage chance of not arriving? December isn't really a winter month for us 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: To me a pattern change is a pattern that lasts for 3+ weeks and is cold and snowy I also think that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: December isn't really a winter month for us Where I am December is like March, either great or a shut out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there are some patterns where you do have to worry about cutters, but this is absolutely not one of them. I'm not concerned that there are some random LR OP runs that show them when the ensembles look this good at day 8. there have been OP runs that have shown multiple coastals as well, like last evening's 18z GFS not even sure what some of the "pattern is getting pushed back" stuff is about. the PV is in SE Canada in the medium range and this is as good as the Pacific has looked since 2014-15 I'm praying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Pattern change doesn't mean snow? I think when the crew on here hears pattern change, the main understanding is that it means 4-6”+ snowstorms will verify. They don’t think of it much in terms of what the teleconnections like the PNA and AO are doing. It can also mean a period of colder temperatures following a warmer one. But many will not call this a full pattern change unless decent snowstorms come with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: The whole crew here has pretty much figured out through trial and error the the effective model range is about 8-10 days. In winter it's actually less, I would doubt anything more than 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I also think that way it has to be a pattern that lasts for a while...some people love snow..some people love the cold, some people only love major snowstorms....I love the cold,snow,wind, snowpack retention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Red taggers out there - will the good period not arrive? Percentage chance of not arriving? if that pattern completely goes up in smoke in the next few I will literally never long range forecast ever again lmao there is no way there is an east Asian mountain torque driving the Pacific jet extension and -EPO... the models are handling this correctly 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Where I am December is like March, either great or a shut out. Like you have said, March seems to have gotten better than December for consistency though. The core of winter, when one should expect snow, is January and February. So whatever we get now is actually just an appetizer. When January and February don't produce, aside from vast outliers like 2018, our winters usually suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: In winter it's actually less, I would doubt anything more than 5 days out Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Like you have said, March seems to have gotten better than December for consistency though. The core of winter, when one should expect snow, is January and February. So whatever we get now is actually just an appetizer. When January and February don't produce, aside from vast outliers like 2018, our winters usually suck. What's funny is December and March CARRIED 2017/2018. We did get the big storm early Jan and that whacky 4.5 inches that February between 70 degree days. Great winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 https://psychologyforum.com Back to the weather. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if that pattern completely goes up in smoke in the next few I will literally never long range forecast ever again lmao there is no way there is an east Asian mountain torque driving the Pacific jet extension and -EPO... the models are handling this correctly Thanks. Also blocking is not disappearing from what I see, it's just not as intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now