EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 This looks pretty darn good to me. Slight neg. NAO. Positive PNA. We don't want blocking to be that strong or yes will be cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:34 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Doesn't your previous post apply to apply to this post??? People talking in absolutes two weeks away while the models have a hard time getting a storm right a few days out. Expand Coastal weenies are getting antsy after hearing since the end of November how this would be the best pattern since 2010 with all the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:35 PM, EastonSN+ said: This looks pretty darn good to me. Slight neg. NAO. Positive PNA. We don't want blocking to be that strong or yes will be cold and dry. Expand 15 days away????.....better to invest in FTX... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:36 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: 15 days away????.....better to invest in FTX...CD rates will be going up again this week, so that’s ok by me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:35 PM, MJO812 said: Coastal weenies are getting antsy after hearing since the end of November how this would be the best pattern since 2010 with all the blocking. Expand There remain no signs of a significant pattern change to a colder and stormier pattern that lasts for 3+ weeks...people are fat too invested in what may happen as opposed to what is and/or what has been happening... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:38 PM, North and West said: CD rates will be going up again this week, so that’s ok by me. . Expand so are you saying that you do not like my investment advice????...I can't imagine why not.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:38 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: There remain no signs of a significant pattern change to a colder and stormier pattern that lasts for 3+ weeks...people are fat too invested in what may happen as opposed to what is and/or what has been happening... Expand Actually there is if you look at the ensembles. The epo might save us near Christmas for a time being . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:41 PM, MJO812 said: Actually there is if you look at the ensembles. The epo might save us near Christmas for a time being . Expand nope not going to look at the ensembles for....look at the pattern.....Where has all the "action" been??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:35 PM, EastonSN+ said: This looks pretty darn good to me. Slight neg. NAO. Positive PNA. We don't want blocking to be that strong or yes will be cold and dry. Expand 15 days out-we are always 10-15 days out with the "great look" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 That's raises a good question, what was the best blocking period since 2010? For me thinking 1.) March April 2018 2.) February 2021 3.) February March 2013 4.) January 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:35 PM, MJO812 said: Coastal weenies are getting antsy after hearing since the end of November how this would be the best pattern since 2010 with all the blocking. Expand Couple differences though-the cold in Dec 2010 was central/east-now it's central/west with a persistent -PNA. SST's are very warm off the east coast-hard to get hit and hold cold with that early in the season. Lastly, the models have continually delayed the goods...never a good sign. This looks more like Dec '96 than Dec '10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 You guys will be begging for a warmup come January JMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:42 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: nope not going to look at the ensembles for....look at the pattern.....Where has all the "action" been??? Expand Is it winter yet ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:48 PM, EastonSN+ said: That's raises a good question, what was the best blocking period since 2010? For me thinking 1.) March April 2018 2.) February 2021 3.) February March 2013 4.) January 2016 Expand February 21. March 2018 was amazing but would have been better for Mby a month earlier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 11:51 AM, the_other_guy said: Common theme since November. Background state is just a bit cooler now. at this point just settle for the fact that you’re having a rather normal temperature stretch in December and if you get lucky (like inland areas did Sunday) with one of these events, so be it. If the goods are still 7 to 10 days out…this is your December. Expand Yeah, the ensembles have been trying to improve the Pacific day 11-15 for weeks now. They show a great +PNA and trough near the Northeast. But as we get closer to day 8-10, the OP runs start showing cutters. Someone commented on how the OP GFS has been showing cutters day 11-15 while the GEFS has been cold. We can remember the KU look the ensembles had for Friday only to become a Great Lakes cutter with a secondary passing right over NYC. 360 hr EPS forecast for December 15th 60 hr EPS forecast for December 15th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:45 PM, Brian5671 said: 15 days out-we are always 10-15 days out with the "great look" Expand Sort of like saying Sam Darnold looked great in pre draft workouts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:45 PM, Brian5671 said: 15 days out-we are always 10-15 days out with the "great look" Expand I was just going to say I understand people posting these 300 + maps but do they actually verify ? I also think models should go out 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:48 PM, EasternLI said: You guys will be begging for a warmup come January JMO. Expand I'm begging for a warm-up now I'm getting too old for this cold **** 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:50 PM, SRRTA22 said: I'm begging for a warm-up now I'm getting too old for this cold **** Expand It's not that cold outside 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:49 PM, MJO812 said: Is it winter yet ? Expand officially no BUT I guess there shouldn't be blizzard warnings in place for parts of the upper plains and midwest because it isn't officially winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:45 PM, Brian5671 said: 15 days out-we are always 10-15 days out with the "great look" Expand This happens every single blocking event. Everyone panics cause the models rush the good look. 2010 we had a massive cutter that brought down the Minnesota dome 2 weeks into the blocking patter and as Bluewave alluded to it took the entire month for the blocking to migrate west and clean up the PAC. Not saying this is 2010 and Forky said "Since" 2010 not including 2010. Question - has ANY red tagger stated concern that the pattern won't happen? I will definitely show concern if any red tagger stated that the good look may never happen or only last a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:48 PM, EasternLI said: You guys will be begging for a warmup come January JMO. Expand Not me..I love cold weather and snow.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:50 PM, MJO812 said: I was just going to say I understand people posting these 300 + maps but do they actually verify ? I also think models should go out 7 days Expand None of it has verified. As Bluewave notes it looks great then as we get into the middle range, it's back to cutter city and the cold dumping out west. Same ol same ol. The blocking hasn't really helped us and doesn't look great for the next week for snow chances unless you're well N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 I remember the SSWE happened early Feb 2018 and it took a month for the payoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:51 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: officially no BUT I guess there shouldn't be blizzard warnings in place for parts of the upper plains and midwest because it isn't officially winter... Expand Road trip to the Rockies-ridiculous early season snows out there-Breckenridge with 7-8 feet for the season so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:54 PM, Brian5671 said: None of it has verified. As Bluewave notes it looks great then as we get into the middle range, it's back to cutter city and the cold dumping out west. Same ol same ol. The blocking hasn't really helped us and doesn't look great for the next week for snow chances unless you're well N and W. Expand Yeah but Bluewave is not saying it WON'T happen, hes just showing what has been happening. 2010, 2018 all had to wait an entire month with Rainers. I mean Forky literally stated after Christmas this whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:50 PM, MJO812 said: I was just going to say I understand people posting these 300 + maps but do they actually verify ? I also think models should go out 7 days Expand The whole crew here has pretty much figured out through trial and error the the effective model range is about 8-10 days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:51 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: officially no BUT I guess there shouldn't be blizzard warnings in place for parts of the upper plains and midwest because it isn't officially winter... Expand Are you really comparing those areas to here ? On 12/13/2022 at 12:54 PM, Brian5671 said: None of it has verified. As Bluewave notes it looks great then as we get into the middle range, it's back to cutter city and the cold dumping out west. Same ol same ol. The blocking hasn't really helped us and doesn't look great for the next week for snow chances unless you're well N and W. Expand We don't even know what's going to happen this weekend. Don't worry about next week just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:56 PM, EastonSN+ said: Yeah but Bluewave is not saying it WON'T happen, hes just showing what has been happening. 2010, 2018 all had to wait an entire month with Rainers. I mean Forky literally stated after Christmas(fill in the year) this whole time. Expand FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 On 12/13/2022 at 12:57 PM, bluewave said: The whole crew here has pretty much figured out through trial and error the the effective model range is about 8-10 days. Expand And that's how far out the models should go out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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