December 2022

[Volcanic Winter]

What was the most recent KU type storm? Assuming 1/29 was too irregular to qualify?

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The storm track forecasts will probably be all over the place from the solstice on as models can figure out the exact PV location. Notice the larger than average spread between the EPS and OP. This large spread also exists between the GEFS and GEPS and their OPs. So don’t despair if snowstorms keep getting pushed back as one will eventually click between 12-20 and 1-10. But a block north of Alaska and periods following -4 AO drops have produced 4-6”+ snowstorms for NYC in the past. One storm will eventually pull the PV north of the Great Lakes and temperatures will drop under 20° in NYC. 
 

 

 

 

 

Stole from the MA forum.

Have we ever seen -4 followed by a -5 AO in the same month before?

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Stole from the MA forum.

Have we ever seen -4 followed by a -5 AO in the same month before?

2009-10 likely had that

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

If Friday is a rainstorm it will be a disappointment so far.   Early model runs were good cold/some frozen events mid month on.....Northern areas did do ok last night but the souther half of the forum was mainly rain/white rain.

I lucked out with 1.5 last night (I am only .75 miles north of the Merritt).

10/11 did not snow will boxing day

00/01 not till December 30

12/13 only one 4.5 event in December

Reason I raise those is they all had serious blocking where we had to wait up till a month to score, and in 12/13 February.

Also, I trust Forky's opinion as he only opines when he feels there is legitimate potential. He bumped yesterday where he said we start scoring after Christmas.

 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I lucked out with 1.5 last night (I am only .75 miles north of the Merritt).

10/11 did not snow will boxing day

00/01 not till December 30

12/13 only one 4.5 event in December

Reason I raise those is they all had serious blocking where we had to wait up till a month to score, and in 12/13 February.

Also, I trust Forky's opinion as he only opines when he feels there is legitimate potential. He bumped yesterday where he said we start scoring after Christmas.

 

Agree-sometimes the goods come right as the pattern is breaking down....

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What was the most recent KU type storm? Assuming 1/29 was too irregular to qualify?

Might be December 2020 storm?   

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What was the most recent KU type storm? Assuming 1/29 was too irregular to qualify?

Feb 2021 and actually the early Jan Mid-Atlantic storm last year that missed us

[EastonSN+]

Looking at the GEFS and EPS there are changes way out.

EPS has shifted the trough from mid country to east coast to match GEFS. Colder look. Keeps weaker blocking.

GEFS completely looses the blocking by day 15. However:

1.) Positive PNA keeps the trough and cold east

2.) As Bluewave and LI have stated -4 AOs in December usually lead to late season blocking.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Feb 2021

Correct a monster too. 14 here I think central Park 16.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at the GEFS and EPS there are changes way out.

EPS has shifted the trough from mid country to east coast to match GEFS. Colder look. Keeps weaker blocking.

GEFS completely looses the blocking by day 15. However:

1.) Positive PNA keeps the trough and cold east

2.) As Bluewave and LI have stated -4 AOs in December usually lead to late season blocking.

 

Forgot to mention, ensembles always speed up the breakdown of a pattern (just like they rushed the incoming pattern look).

[jm1220]

Any time we have a strong E or ENE flow this time of the year, or pretty much any time of the year the coast will have problems. Water is still probably in the upper 40s. As others are saying this late week storm won’t be a big deal for anyone near the city and coast as long as the surface low tracks over Delaware Bay. Catskills/Poconos and well north in the Hudson Valley/Berkshires will do way better. Hopefully the rest of us get a break and the low can transfer sooner/further south under the block. 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You know I was thinking about that, freezing cold warm up rain freezing cold after the front.

Some of those winters had a bad rap though, a lot of them were 75% of average which is basically like last winters total. Not great but not ratter after ratter. 

81-82, 82-83, 83-84, 85-86, 86-87 off hand were pretty good, cold and snow in decent enough amounts

Only one double digit snowstorm in there but a few MECS (8"+) in there too, including one in April lol.

 

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Any time we have a strong E or ENE flow this time of the year, or pretty much any time of the year the coast will have problems. Water is still probably in the upper 40s. As others are saying this late week storm won’t be a big deal for anyone near the city and coast as long as the surface low tracks over Delaware Bay. Catskills/Poconos and well north in the Hudson Valley/Berkshires will do way better. Hopefully the rest of us get a break and the low can transfer sooner/further south under the block. 

well said. Ocean temp is at 51 at the station I usually use for my area (https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44065)

 

Winter threats are hard to even take seriously in NYC/LI until after 12/15 given the ocean temps. I would hate a perfect pattern in early December as we'd still have issues. I think people got excited by the early  -AO/NAO where the reality is that we are finally entering a more workable time period starting next week. I would still keep an eye on the Friday storm given the block and the weird track but it was always a long shot for the metro

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Feb 2021 and actually the early Jan Mid-Atlantic storm last year that missed us

We had a double digit snowstorm last January, that should have been the last one.

 

[donsutherland1]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Stole from the MA forum.

Have we ever seen -4 followed by a -5 AO in the same month before?

Yes. February 2010. On February 6, the AO fell to -5.205. Afterward, it rose to -4.266 on February 10. On February 14, it bottomed out again at -5.132.

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We had a double digit snowstorm last January, that should have been the last one.

 

Nope, too localized

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Northeast_Snowfall_Impact_Scale_winter_storms

 

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. February 2010. On February 6, the AO fell to -5.205. Afterward, it rose to -4.266 on February 10. On February 14, it bottomed out again at -5.132.

That must be one of the lowest it's ever been.

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, frd said:

@bluewave since we are getting deeper into December would that association,  with the - 4 AO and the block North of Alaska, work for areas near Baltimore and Wilmington, DE. regarding snowfall   ? Thanks  

Your best snowfall combination since 1981 is a -AO and El Niño. But  occasionally a La Niña with a -AO will work. The last good La Niña -AO combo for you guys was 1999-2000. It came down to the late January event when we got the -AO dip.

Snowfall since 1981

Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	ENSO and AO
1	2009-2010	77.0	El Niño -AO
2	1995-1996	62.5	La Niña -AO
3	2002-2003	58.1	El Niño - AO
4	2013-2014	39.0	Neutral
5	1982-1983	35.6	El Niño -AO
6	1986-1987	35.2	El Niño -AO
7	2015-2016	35.1	El Niño -AO
8	2014-2015	28.7	El Niño +AO
9	1999-2000	26.1	La Niña -AO
10	1981-1982	25.5	Neutral -AO

[MJO812]

PNA becoming favorable 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

PNA becoming favorable 

Probably the most important indicator for December in our region especially in a Nina

[bluewave]

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That must be one of the lowest it's ever been.

 

Yeah, that was the lowest monthly average. But I believe January 1985 stands as the lowest daily. That was the last time Newark almost made it to -10.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

1985  1 19 -6.226

 

Data for January 1, 1985 through January 31, 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	-24
HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	-16
ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	-14
BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	-14
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	-12
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-12
RINGWOOD	COOP	-12
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	-12
NEWTON	COOP	-11
Belvidere Area	ThreadEx	-10
CRANFORD	COOP	-10
LONG VALLEY	COOP	-10
BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	-10
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	-10
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	-9
MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	-9
SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	-9
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	-9
Newark Area	ThreadEx	-8
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-8

[gravitylover]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was the lowest monthly average. But I believe January 1985 stands as the lowest daily. That was the last time Newark almost made it to -10.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

1985  1 19 -6.226

 

 

I lived in VT the winter of 84/85 and that January into the first few days of Feb is the coldest stretch I've seen on the east coast. The weather station near campus had a week where it didn't break 0 and a few nights below -30. Granted it was in a hollow but damn, that was some cold **** 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, that was the lowest monthly average. But I believe January 1985 stands as the lowest daily. That was the last time Newark almost made it to -10.

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

1985  1 19 -6.226

 

Data for January 1, 1985 through January 31, 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Lowest Min Temperature
SEABROOK FARMS	COOP	-24
HIGH POINT PARK	COOP	-16
ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	-14
BOONTON 1 SE	COOP	-14
Trenton Area	ThreadEx	-12
CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-12
RINGWOOD	COOP	-12
EWING 3 WNW	COOP	-12
NEWTON	COOP	-11
Belvidere Area	ThreadEx	-10
CRANFORD	COOP	-10
LONG VALLEY	COOP	-10
BELVIDERE BRIDGE	COOP	-10
MOORESTOWN 4 E	COOP	-10
Atlantic City Area	ThreadEx	-9
MORRIS PLAINS 1 W	COOP	-9
SUSSEX 1 NW	COOP	-9
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP	WBAN	-9
Newark Area	ThreadEx	-8
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	-8

Particularly impressive since it was with zero snow cover!  That was also the last time JFK went below zero and NYC had a high temperature in the single digits!  It was even colder than January 1994 and about equal to January 1977!

 

Do you think this was more impressive than January 1977 or the below zero outbreak on Christmas 1980, Chris? Those are the other notable below zero outbreaks I remember.  The latter gave us a small blanket of snow for Christmas.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Your best snowfall combination since 1981 is a -AO and El Niño. But  occasionally a La Niña with a -AO will work. The last good La Niña -AO combo for you guys was 1999-2000. It came down to the late January event when we got the -AO dip.

Snowfall since 1981

Time Series Summary for Baltimore Area, MD (ThreadEx) - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	ENSO and AO
1	2009-2010	77.0	El Niño -AO
2	1995-1996	62.5	La Niña -AO
3	2002-2003	58.1	El Niño - AO
4	2013-2014	39.0	Neutral
5	1982-1983	35.6	El Niño -AO
6	1986-1987	35.2	El Niño -AO
7	2015-2016	35.1	El Niño -AO
8	2014-2015	28.7	El Niño +AO
9	1999-2000	26.1	La Niña -AO
10	1981-1982	25.5	Neutral -AO

Wow Baltimore has only had 3 total winters with 40" or more of snow-- and almost all 3 were in the 60"+ category-- one of whom is more than NYC has ever received in official recorded history. Is Philly's record more similar to Baltimore or NYC?

 

 

[Northof78]

New GFS would almost certainly start as snow for all/most and then transition to a mixed bag, timing of max retrograde of cold/arctic air and 50/50 vs. the incoming moisture will determine who on coast gets material snow, verbatim it has VA/MD/DE getting decent front end snow as well down to the coast, should be a decent winter storm for many on here with the block and embedded arctic air

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

New GFS would almost certainly start as snow for all/most and then transition to a mixed bag, timing of max retrograde of cold/arctic air and 50/50 vs. the incoming moisture will determine who on coast gets material snow, verbatim it has VA/MD/DE getting decent front end snow as well down to the coast, should be a decent winter storm for many on here with the block and embedded arctic air

If you're inland sure, there would be plenty of snow on the GFS 12z. But the moisture is coming in on strong ENE flow still. This is the panel at hr93. That would torch anyone near the coast regardless of what's going on at 850mb. Temps during this panel are in the 40s in NYC. For those not well inland, we need the transfer to happen sooner and the low to track ENE sooner so the wind can change direction.

[Volcanic Winter]

Hey, this is certainly more fun than tracking how torched the next week is gonna be and taking bets on who sees 60+. We could be in a very different spot. This is fun. 
 

Let’s get some snow, boys. This week or next, it’s gonna happen. 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Do you think this was more impressive than January 1977

Nothing in modern times compares to 76-77 for the duration of the extreme cold and ice build up on the local waterways from late December into early February.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 27 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	1918-02-07	19.4	0
2	1881-02-07	21.8	0
3	1977-02-07	22.3	0
4	1893-02-07	24.3	0
5	1888-02-07	24.5	0
6	1912-02-07	24.7	0
7	1875-02-07	24.9	4
8	1920-02-07	25.0	0
-	1886-02-07	25.0	0
9	1948-02-07	25.3	0
10	1904-02-07	25.4	0
11	1994-02-07	25.8	0

 

[forkyfork]

a normal 1800s winter would be top ten cold now

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nothing in modern times compares to 76-77 for the duration of the extreme cold and ice build up on the local waterways from late December into early February.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 27 to Feb 7	Missing Count
1	1918-02-07	19.4	0
2	1881-02-07	21.8	0
3	1977-02-07	22.3	0
4	1893-02-07	24.3	0
5	1888-02-07	24.5	0
6	1912-02-07	24.7	0
7	1875-02-07	24.9	4
8	1920-02-07	25.0	0
-	1886-02-07	25.0	0
9	1948-02-07	25.3	0
10	1904-02-07	25.4	0
11	1994-02-07	25.8	0

 

I wonder why that didn't end with a big snowstorm-- so many of our outbreaks have, especially when the outbreak ends in early February it usually ends in a bang-- any idea why we didn't have a big snowstorm to end the long duration arctic outbreak?