December 2022

[SnoSki14]

Yeah I thought maybe we'd luck out on the 16th but that primary has always been a stickler and not even a strong block will be enough. 

Things look great beyond it with plenty of cold air coming down and a favorable blocking pattern. 

A really good few weeks likely 

[MJO812]

Cmc and gfs look great after next weekend . Plenty of cold.

[Tatamy]

12z UKMET was colder for upstate NY and interior NE.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

This has been may target period all along so hoping it works out!   Becoming increasingly interested in this end of December opening of January period.  Nice to finally see +PNA down the road.  We NEED that to evolve.  Trace snow here so far today.  Few brief bursts of light snow / large flakes that have whitened the grass and deck etc.

Yeah, all-time record warmth for Northern Alaska in December with such strong blocking. So the polar vortex gets displaced to the south over North America. The lingering influence from the record -EPO block in November has changed our typical warm up pattern around the solstice. 
 

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

bump

actually MJO won this round with todays event.

Happy to tell you that too

[forkyfork]

that's nice. anyway check out this big miss by the gfes. the models underdo downstream cold sometimes during pac blocking episodes

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc and gfs look great after next weekend . Plenty of cold.

Do you think the drier conditions this year will continue and limit impacts? Haven't had heavy precip in a long time. Sure was a challenge with the garden this season. Retired now so don't pay as much attention as I used to....

[SnoSki14]

GEFS look phenomenal after the Friday storm 

[EasternLI]

Sick gefs at 12z. Pattern loaded after end of week deal all the way out. Cold centered on the great lakes is a good look for the area. 

 

[EasternLI]

Outstanding. We even see the classic blocking look of PV lobes trapped underneath. Very nice run. 

[Rmine1]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Fantasy land, will go back warmer 

Please share your thoughts as to why, if you don’t mind. We’re here to not only follow volatile weather, but also to be educated by those with the knowledge. 

[Rmine1]

25 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Please share your thoughts as to why, if you don’t mind. We’re here to not only follow volatile weather, but also to be educated by those with the knowledge. 

Strange, the original post magically disappeared 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Please share your thoughts as to why, if you don’t mind. We’re here to not only follow volatile weather, but also to be educated by those with the knowledge. 

Hes a troll

[Rmine1]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Hes a troll

Oh I know 

[forkyfork]

10 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Strange, the original post magically disappeared 

and they're going to keep disappearing 

[Rmine1]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

and they're going to keep disappearing 

Understood 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS look phenomenal after the Friday storm 

Always 10 days away...

[Volcanic Winter]

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Always 10 days away...

The here and now is already better than last year, though. It's not like we're 55-65, torched every day with cold air stuck in the 11-15 day with a monster -PNA. We're actively in a better position with the models consistently showing continued improvement.

That's encouraging, IMHO. Of course things can change. Certainly hoping they don't, but I'll allow myself a modicum of excitement.

[EasternLI]

I would love to see these 2 ridges get together over Santa's house. What would that be -6 ao lol. But it's also just a cool illustration. Simply look at what something like that could do to the TPV. It's shattered in pieces all over the NH. 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

Always 10 days away...

It was always after mid December where the best pattern would begin. 

Anything before that was a bonus 

[WestBabylonWeather]

The past few christmases have been quite warm. This is a nice surprise 

[EasternLI]

Well gefs is going for the ridge link up as well. Ok then. And let's be clear here. The picture is day 10, but this starts at day 6.

[donsutherland1]

Through 4 pm snowfall totals include:

Albany: 3.9"
Allentown: Trace
Binghamton: 4.1" (tied record set in 1992)
Bridgeport: Trace
New York City: Trace
Newark: Trace

A system will continue to bring wet snow to parts of the region into early tomorrow. Areas to the north and west of New York City and Newark could see a coating of snow. Poughkeepsie could see 2"-4" of snow and Port Jervis could pick up 3"-6".

A sustained colder pattern is currently developing. The latest EPS weeklies continue to suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 period. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. Afterward, as the PNA goes neutral, the prospect for snowfall and more significant cold could increase.

The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was -0.78 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.238 today.

On December 9 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.511 (RMM). The December 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.417 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.8° (0.3° below normal).

 

[EastonSN+]

58 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Well gefs is going for the ridge link up as well. Ok then. And let's be clear here. The picture is day 10, but this starts at day 6.

GEFS looks better than the EPS, which centers the trough in the center of the country.

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

I would love to see these 2 ridges get together over Santa's house. What would that be -6 ao lol. But it's also just a cool illustration. Simply look at what something like that could do to the TPV. It's shattered in pieces all over the NH. 

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS looks better than the EPS, which centers the trough in the center of the country.

Yeah, saw that. I can see the eps members playing games in the tropics. They can do that sometimes. It happened last year. We witnessed some of that again with the gefs doing better with the Pacific this year. Gefs is much more coherent looking with the tropical signal going into the Pacific faster. I think the eps will come around. It's going in that same direction already anyway. Just not as clearly, yet.

 

[CIK62]

For the record---as of today---here is the % of a T=32 or less on Christmas morning.        Minnesota and N. Dakota probably will have the lowest US T's, but seemed to be colder prior to the holiday:

 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's not out of the question that things could trend more favorably given blocking in place.

We are still 4 days away. 

[MJO812]