December 2022

[Tatamy]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Maybe we should focus right now on the event that will happen in the next 24 hrs? Then move on to a possible storm 6 days from now.

 

There is already a thread set up for the event for Sunday and Monday.

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Maybe we should focus right now on the event that will happen in the next 24 hrs? Then move on to a possible storm 6 days from now.

 

That’s why someone started a separate thread to discuss the next 24 hours 

 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

That’s why someone started a separate thread to discuss the next 24 hours 

 

Yup. My bad. Just saw it. Disregard my dumb comment. Lol

[Volcanic Winter]

20 minutes ago, snywx said:

Where are you located?

Interior Toms River near the Manchester border, it’s a good spot relative to the coast. 16 inches 1/29/22 and normally avoid when there’s mixing at the immediate coast but not inland. 
 

Doesn’t make a different when there’s serious onshore flow of torched air though. 

[CIK62]

Constant Chaos output is scary in both the remaining December and January periods for different reasons:     Scary AN Hot  to  Scary BN Cold:

Pzzzzzzzz............its wrong both ways    Lol.

 

[donsutherland1]

Uncertainty about the possible late next week event is unusually high. For perspective, the  current 500 mb pattern for the AO-/PNA- setup resembles none of the patterns for the prior December AO -3.5 or below/PNA- cases. 

[snywx]

49 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Interior Toms River near the Manchester border, it’s a good spot relative to the coast. 16 inches 1/29/22 and normally avoid when there’s mixing at the immediate coast but not inland. 
 

Doesn’t make a different when there’s serious onshore flow of torched air though. 

Gotta be tough being a winter weather lover and living there. I would go nuts lol

[Volcanic Winter]

Moved here from North Brunswick, we honestly do pretty well. Little bit less frequent to see snow down here as we miss anything with a north south gradient, but we can score with the right track (like last Jan). Boxing Day was excellent in this area too, but I was up north for that one. 

And I work west of EWR so I catch a lot of northern events that way. 

[Cfa]

Microscopic flurries in Stony Brook.

First of the season.

[Rmine1]

12 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Microscopic flurries in Stony Brook.

First of the season.

Same here on south shore. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Microscopic flurries in Stony Brook.

First of the season.

Noticeable band of OES (OER?) south of LI into the central Jersey coast (south of 195), but it's probably just drizzle on the Jersey shore.

[EasternLI]

Ahh, ok. Good eye by Griteater here in this excellent tweet thread. I did notice the tropical signal propagation into the western Pacific gaining traction on guidance. I was totally missing that there's about to be a +EAMT event this week. Those events really are important to Pacific Jet variability. I need to remind myself to pay more attention to that area. That's going to lend strong support to the idea of the arctic outbreak. The tropical signal (phase 7) was/is the big reason I'm just sitting here waiting in the dark alley, in dark attire, for the SPV to walk by.

 

[EasternLI]

That is not bad, 06z GEFS. I would very much like to grab a lobe of the TPV and stick it in the Aleutians. 

[EasternLI]

We very well could have a cold Christmas en route for the first time in forever. 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be cloudy with a cold rain in coastal sections and wet snow inland. Poughkeepsie will likely see 2”-4 of snow into tomorrow morning. Port Jervis will likely see 3”-6”. High temperatures will reach the upper 30s and lower 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 41°

Newark: 43°

Philadelphia: 44°

Precipitation will end tomorrow and the clouds will break.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 45.5°; 15-Year: 46.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 46.0°; 15-Year: 46.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 48.0°

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the blocking shifting north of Alaska within the more reliable day 10 range is a cold and eventually snowy signal for us. The NH polar vortex will get displaced over North America. So my guess is that NYC sees at least one if not more 4-6”+ snowstorm between Dec 20 and Jan 10. Could also see readings dip below 15° or maybe 10° in NYC.

 

 

 

 

I love how the blocking never goes away completely.

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I love how the blocking never goes away completely.

Yes. And I'm waiting to kneecap the PV in an attempt to have it stick around all winter. Still very optimistic about that too. Fingers crossed. 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  38degs.(34/42) or +2.

Reached 43 here yesterday.

Today:   37-41, wind ne., Rain 11am today to 5am tomorrow-wet snow?, 35 tomorrow AM.

40*(73%RH) here at 6am.     41* at 7am.       43* at 10am.       45* at Noon.       Reached 46*  at 1:30pm.         43* at 5pm.       40* at 9pm.      37* at 10pm.

62 years ago today, also a Sunday, we were waiting for what became an early 15"+ blizzard.

[SACRUS]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the blocking shifting north of Alaska within the more reliable day 10 range is a cold and eventually snowy signal for us. The NH polar vortex will get displaced over North America. So my guess is that NYC sees at least one if not more 4-6”+ snowstorm between Dec 20 and Jan 10. Could also see readings dip below 15° or maybe 10° in NYC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great post as always Bluewaze, back from a "chilly" WC and agree the period around or right before Christmas into the first week o January looks like it could be quite wintry.    I hope i bring the cold with me from the West the next few weeks.   Still keep an eye on the Thu (16) / Fri (17) storm.

[Allsnow]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the blocking shifting north of Alaska within the more reliable day 10 range is a cold and eventually snowy signal for us. The NH polar vortex will get displaced over North America. So my guess is that NYC sees at least one if not more 4-6”+ snowstorm between Dec 20 and Jan 10. Could also see readings dip below 15° or maybe 10° in NYC.

 

 

 

 

I’m all in after reading this…….

 

Go Bluewave!!!

[lee59]

I wonder if this will be a case where the west coast has all the cold and snow for the fall, then it flips for 3 weeks to the east coast, then flips back to the west for the remainder of the winter.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m all in after reading this…….

 

Go Bluewave!!!

Same here

Best part of winter 

[lee59]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same here

Best part of winter 

Yea January into early February is the coldest, so this would be good timing in that sense.

[EastonSN+]

Hate not to absolutely love what the GEFS is showing.

Looks like the GEFS is now colder than the EPS.

BOTH have a PNA and some semblance of blocking.

It's early of course, but if next week's storm fails, we should have a FEW more opportunities ahead!

[CIK62]

Running   'Out of the Money'          Chance for at least 1" in the next 15 days is going nowhere either----still 50/50..............but chance of a T <= 20 has increased for the time around Christmas.

 

HEY!   While we wait for snow action this season............relive some past events since 1950.       Check out this date in 1960 to see what can happen snow wise early in the season:

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

[MANDA]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the blocking shifting north of Alaska within the more reliable day 10 range is a cold and eventually snowy signal for us. The NH polar vortex will get displaced over North America. So my guess is that NYC sees at least one if not more 4-6”+ snowstorm between Dec 20 and Jan 10. Could also see readings dip below 15° or maybe 10° in NYC.

 

 

 

 

This has been may target period all along so hoping it works out!   Becoming increasingly interested in this end of December opening of January period.  Nice to finally see +PNA down the road.  We NEED that to evolve.  Trace snow here so far today.  Few brief bursts of light snow / large flakes that have whitened the grass and deck etc.

[Volcanic Winter]

Wait so Xmas this year might actually feel like Yule instead of like Memorial Day?

Amazing.

[forkyfork]

On 12/1/2022 at 8:57 PM, forkyfork said:

who called for snow before the 15th? my guess has always been christmas week and beyond 

bump

[forkyfork]

this has to be into -5 territory 

[Tatamy]

12z GFS has another snow event for interior locations.  The 12z CMC with warming depicted between 700-800mb and a cold layer below would result in up to 10-12 hours of sleet/ice.  It then goes to rain.  This could result in sleet accumulations of up to 1-2”.  This could have very nasty implications for travel later in the week in the interior.