MJO812 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If only 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Please be careful posting these 10-1 snow graphics. Sleet snd mixed precip is posted as all snow. NOT good for the mind when it doesn't pan out. Also, I strongly urge consideration of GGEM as a reasonable middle of the road model. If the GGEM doesn't have snow cyclically in its model, then I don't think snowier solutions will verify. Have looked at next week... and suggest using EC-CMC solution. My guess is the 00z/06z GFS from the 9th is far too cold. With that in mind: other than flurries/ice pellets possibilities in NYC through next Thursday (small chance of a 3 tenth inch minor accumulation in CP), I am only posting in the nw-ne suburbs where greater impact is likely. Probably where there are few American Weather members but that's where the bigger wintry action should be. NWS ensemble probs this Friday morning Dec 9 support this as well through Day 7. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, wdrag said: Please be careful posting these 10-1 snow graphics. Sleet snd mixed precip is posted as all snow. NOT good for the mind when it doesn't pan out. Also, I strongly urge consideration of GGEM as a reasonable middle of the road model. If the GGEM doesn't have snow cyclically in its model, then I don't think snowier solutions will verify. Have looked at next week... and suggest using EC-CMC solution. My guess is the 00z/06z GFS from the 9th is far too cold. With that in mind: other than flurries/ice pellets possibilities in NYC through next Thursday (small chance of a 3 tenth inch minor accumulation in CP), I am only posting in the nw-ne suburbs where greater impact is likely. Probably where there are few American Weather members but that's where the bigger wintry action should be. NWS ensemble probs this Friday morning Dec 9 support this as well through Day 7. The interior always has a better chance but we have seen a clear improvement on the models overnight with a faster transfer to the coast thanks to the blocking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Great -EPO -AO pattern. But the -PNA pumps the SE ridge next week on the Euro and GEM allowing the storm to tuck in. So you can see the Euro and GEM keeping this an interior snow event for now. Need the +PNA Rockies Ridge idea of the Euro control for snow at the coast and a 982mb BM track. Snowier Euro control 982 mb BM track 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 oh we lalala lock up that gfs clown map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Great -EPO -AO pattern. But the -PNA pumps the SE ridge next week on the Euro and GEM allowing the storm to tuck in. So you can see the Euro and GEM keeping this an interior snow event for now. Need the +PNA Rockies Ridge idea of the Euro control for snow at the coast and a 982mb BM track. Snowier Euro control 982 mb BM track We just can't shake that RNA. I hope that we get a bout of +PNA while the blocking exists. Of course we can get front end snows from SWFEs in an RNA pattern if the EPO rages negative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(34/40) or Normal. GFS with 13" on the 17th/18th. Unfortunately the ENS. is just 50/50 on >1" all the way to Christmas. Reached 55 yesterday(midnight) 52 daytime. Today: 42-46, wind n., m. sunny, 32 tomorrow AM. {44* at midnight} 37*(70%RH) here at 6am. 38* at 7am. 39* at 9am. 41* at Noon. 44* at 2pm. Reached 46* at 4pm. 41* at 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: oh we lalala lock up that gfs clown map It’s hanging on my fridge already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: It’s hanging on my fridge already. too early. at least it feels like Dec today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: It’s hanging on my fridge already. Check out the MSLP and 10m AGL winds for the 06z GFS at 192 hours on Pivotal. This run has something for everyone. Hurricane force winds, 972 SLP - even a sting jet feature. Fortunately these features are off shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: too early. at least it feels like Dec today Being very tongue in cheek. It’s exciting but I can see why / how this is probably an unlikely solution at this point. At least it looks like a Miller B now? Crazy the evolution of this thing past two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Great -EPO -AO pattern. But the -PNA pumps the SE ridge next week on the Euro and GEM allowing the storm to tuck in. So you can see the Euro and GEM keeping this an interior snow event for now. Need the +PNA Rockies Ridge idea of the Euro control for snow at the coast and a 982mb BM track. Snowier Euro control 982 mb BM track Plenty of time left for things to change but yes I agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Plenty of time left for things to change but yes I agree. Nice shift south on the 06z eps with the 50/50 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Plenty of time left for things to change but yes I agree. The EPS mean has several members near the BM with a little Rockies Ridge + PNA spike. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Plenty of time left for things to change but yes I agree. We'll see changes in about 3 hours im certain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 A 50/50 low forces a slower transit of the target storm? Is that the gist of that? That wasn’t a term I was familiar with prior to coming here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Being very tongue in cheek. It’s exciting but I can see why / how this is probably an unlikely solution at this point. At least it looks like a Miller B now? Crazy the evolution of this thing past two days. the rare Miller B! Im always more comfortable with an A…it’s what I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS mean has several members near the BM with a little Rockies Ridge + PNA spike. I noted elsewhere, the higher heights during this time moving wward from NAO to S Central Canada is now connecting with the PNA on the op centered over Rockies. Looping the past 4 runs has been eye opening wrt this feature and is one of the keys in this working. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 December 2003 I believe cut into the Midwest which have rain to Chicago before a transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I noted elsewhere, the higher heights during this time moving wward from NAO to S Central Canada is now connecting with the PNA on the op centered over Rockies. Looping the past 4 runs has been eye opening wrt this feature and is one of the keys in this working. Yeah, the only reason the 6z GFS has a nice snowstorm is due to the skinny Rockies Ridge and +PNA spike closer to neutral. This scenario is showing up in the ensembles. So to me, all these OP runs beyond 120 are just ensemble members anyway. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Can’t believe we haven’t even seen a snow shower yet. When I was kid by early September we at least had some daytime snow flurries in late November early December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Can’t believe we haven’t even seen a snow shower yet. When I was kid by early September we at least had some daytime snow flurries in late November early December Many places had that a few weeks ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Many places had that a few weeks ago But I haven’t which is what matters 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Nice spread, an ensemble in every phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: But I haven’t which is what matters Long Island… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 Blocking fading A LITTLE BIT in the AO region, but PAC improved with the trough east. Posting GEFS as it has been beating the EPS on the PAC. I cannot opine as to which suite is handling the blocking better though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, psv88 said: Can’t believe we haven’t even seen a snow shower yet. When I was kid by early September we at least had some daytime snow flurries in late November early December Even I saw snow showers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Nice spread, an ensemble in every phase. MJO is a non factor right now, probably for the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9, 2022 Share Posted December 9, 2022 I would take the 0.5 and run! Get on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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