December 2022

[EasternLI]

Day 9 on today's edition 

[EasternLI]

Seems to me like just a lot of spread towards the end. Except for a miserable vortex again 

[Volcanic Winter]

20 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

There's a lot going on. It's very complicated for modeling to figure everything out right now. I'm having a blast watching everything though lol.

Yeah it's a total blast, swinging between jacked to the tits and crestfallen is definitely healthy lol.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah it's a total blast, swinging between jacked to the tits and crestfallen is definitely healthy lol.

need dramamine over the last 7 days.    From how many big snowstorms to maybe we'll get something before xmas

[Great Snow 1717]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

need dramamine over the last 7 days.    From how many big snowstorms to maybe we'll get something before xmas 2025

FYP

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

FYP

[NorthShoreWx]

10 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

You have a lot of faith. It seems that every model that was upgraded has in fact been a downgrade all while we are supposedly more technologically advanced. Watching my forecast for the past 2 weeks is like the proverbial carrot and the mule. It keeps showing cold weather ahead but keeps pushing it into the future.


.

I'm not taking issue with any of that.  But I'm willing to bet that in 10 years whatever version exists of the American medium range model will be better than it is now.  Which is why I think running the 240 - 384 hour op forecasts might be useful for future benchmarking.  I don't use extended op runs from any of the current model suite for planning, although I sometimes enjoy the eye candy they print out.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm not taking issue with any of that.  But I'm willing to bet that in 10 years whatever version exists of the American medium range model will be better than it is now.  Which is why I think running the 240 - 384 hour op forecasts might be useful for future benchmarking.  I don't use extended op runs from any of the current model suite for planning, although I sometimes enjoy the eye candy they print out.

That will only happen if an entirely different approach is taken when it comes to developing a new weather model. 

[wilsonvoid1]

57 and raining in Central Park good day to be home relaxing. Wish I had off. Hoping for a hail mary snowstorm in the next few weeks.

[HeadInTheClouds]

22 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I'm not taking issue with any of that.  But I'm willing to bet that in 10 years whatever version exists of the American medium range model will be better than it is now.  Which is why I think running the 240 - 384 hour op forecasts might be useful for future benchmarking.  I don't use extended op runs from any of the current model suite for planning, although I sometimes enjoy the eye candy they print out.

Yeah but it costs money to run it out to 16 days I would guess. Medium range to me is is 5-7 day time frame and I doubt there will even be a time where the 10 day period is anything but a low verification. 2 week time frames with op models will always be like throwing darts with your eyes closed. It serves no purpose. 

[EasternLI]

Just to further complicate matters. Don't know if anyone had noticed or not. 

Some models, like the gfs here, have been recurving this TC out in the far west pacific in 5-7 days. Absorbing it into the Pacific jet. 

Is that thing real, or not?

Gfs says yes. Euro says no.

There is nothing there currently. 

 

[Brian5671]

How often is there a decent typhoon in that area of the world in mid Dec?  

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

How often is there a decent typhoon in that area of the world in mid Dec?  

 

I do know the WPAC can have tropical systems year round...Jan/Feb/Mar is more rare than December, November we've seen it a few times 

[North and West]

.

[Tatamy]

18z GFS torches us for the middle part of next week.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

18z GFS torches us for the middle part of next week.

Who would have thought that 

[EastonSN+]

GEFS got a little better, EPS got a little worse. 

Perhaps they are finally going to get closer to a compromise.

[HeadInTheClouds]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Who would have thought that 

Shocker

[EastonSN+]

20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

After a frosty start, the mercury rose into the upper 40s across much of the region. Meanwhile, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) saw the temperature soar to 40° today. That smashed the December monthly mark of 34°, which was set on December 9, 1932. It also eclipsed the November monthly record of 39° from November 11, 1937.

Much milder conditions will return tomorrow before additional cold air returns.

With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern following a short-lived rebound in the EPO to positive levels, colder air intrusions could again become more frequent toward mid-December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase, as well, as a sustained colder pattern begins to develop, but significant snowfall is not likely during the transition to that colder pattern. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. The latest EPS weeklies suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 period.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +12.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.867 today.

On December 3 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.686 (RMM). The December 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.281 (RMM).

 

GEFS has the AO touching -4. If we stay conservative with -3.5, per the stats you have provided we are in pretty good shape for some potential!

[Brian5671]

19 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18z GFS torches us for the middle part of next week.

low 60's for a couple of days....well if it ain't going to snow let it torch.

[RedSky]

Receiving the annual Christmas torch ten days early not a bad thing

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Receiving the annual Christmas torch ten days early not a bad thing

As long as it doesn't go on for an extra 10 days lol.   

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

As long as it doesn't go on for an extra 10 days lol.   

It just might. Wouldn’t be surprised if does honestly.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

18z GFS torches us for the middle part of next week.

[Eduardo]

58 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS got a little better, EPS got a little worse. 

Perhaps they are finally going to get closer to a compromise.

Would a compromise between the two work well for us winter wx lovers though?

[EastonSN+]

19 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Would a compromise between the two work well for us winter wx lovers though?

Yup, especially as we get later in the month.

As usual north and east has better chance than south and west.

[donsutherland1]

Rain will end during the morning and it will be unseasonably warm tomorrow. Much of the region could see the temperature peak in the upper 50s and perhaps lower 60s. Cooler air will move into the region on Thursday.

With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern following a short-lived rebound in the EPO to positive levels, colder air intrusions could again become more frequent toward mid-December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase, as well, as a sustained colder pattern begins to develop, but significant snowfall is not likely during the transition to that colder pattern. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. The latest EPS weeklies suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 period.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +12.66 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.651 today.

On December 4 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.888 (RMM). The December 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.746 (RMM).

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

It just might. Wouldn’t be surprised if does honestly.

yeah, I think you’re a spot on.

looks like we’re easily cruising to an above normal month. the question is by how much and can we eek out some snow and cold periods

just a terrible pattern and we’ve been in it solidly since before Thanksgiving.

[Rjay]

Prob a solidly positive month on the departures.  It doesn't mean things still couldn't work out for us later this month in terms of a snow storm.

[the_other_guy]

AN Nov and Dec with BN Dec snow during La Nina usually leads to a garbage winter, correct?