December 2022

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yup..even up here. It's like winters are now 5 months of November

When did you first begin to notice that?

 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Was 13/14 14/15 17/18 close to those cold winters? 

The last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was 1976-1977.  The last top 20 was 93-94. 14-15 would be the coldest of the last decade coming in at 22nd place. But while February had impressive sustained cold, the lowest temperatures never really came close to the 76-94 era around the region. It’s funny that NYC couldn’t go below 0°in February 2015, but did it in the record warm winter on Valentines Day 2016. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2
11	1933-1934	29.1	0
12	1871-1872	29.5	2
13	1962-1963	29.9	0
-	1922-1923	29.9	0
-	1885-1886	29.9	0
-	1876-1877	29.9	0
14	1947-1948	30.0	0
-	1886-1887	30.0	0
-	1883-1884	30.0	0
15	1894-1895	30.2	0
16	1977-1978	30.3	0
17	1969-1970	30.5	0
-	1944-1945	30.5	0
18	1911-1912	30.7	0
19	1958-1959	30.8	0
20	1993-1994	31.1	0
-	1934-1935	31.1	0
21	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
-	1909-1910	31.2	0
-	1870-1871	31.2	4
22	2014-2015	31.4	0
-	1921-1922	31.4	0

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was 1976-1977.  The last top 20 was 93-94. 14-15 would be the coldest of the last decade coming in at 22nd place. But while February had impressive sustained cold, the lowest temperatures never really came close to the 76-94 era around the region. It’s funny that NYC couldn’t go below 0°in February 2015, but did it in the record warm winter on Valentines Day 2016. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2
11	1933-1934	29.1	0
12	1871-1872	29.5	2
13	1962-1963	29.9	0
-	1922-1923	29.9	0
-	1885-1886	29.9	0
-	1876-1877	29.9	0
14	1947-1948	30.0	0
-	1886-1887	30.0	0
-	1883-1884	30.0	0
15	1894-1895	30.2	0
16	1977-1978	30.3	0
17	1969-1970	30.5	0
-	1944-1945	30.5	0
18	1911-1912	30.7	0
19	1958-1959	30.8	0
20	1993-1994	31.1	0
-	1934-1935	31.1	0
21	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
-	1909-1910	31.2	0
-	1870-1871	31.2	4
22	2014-2015	31.4	0
-	1921-1922	31.4	0

1976-77 was mediocre for snow though....one bonus of the new pattern is much less suppression and more bombing of coastal lows so more snow.  That kind of extreme cold isn't good for snow in our area.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was 1976-1977.  The last top 20 was 93-94. 14-15 would be the coldest of the last decade coming in at 22nd place. But while February had impressive sustained cold, the lowest temperatures never really came close to the 76-94 era  around the region. It’s funny that NYC couldn’t go below 0°in February 2015, but did it in the record warm winter on Valentines Day 2016. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2
11	1933-1934	29.1	0
12	1871-1872	29.5	2
13	1962-1963	29.9	0
-	1922-1923	29.9	0
-	1885-1886	29.9	0
-	1876-1877	29.9	0
14	1947-1948	30.0	0
-	1886-1887	30.0	0
-	1883-1884	30.0	0
15	1894-1895	30.2	0
16	1977-1978	30.3	0
17	1969-1970	30.5	0
-	1944-1945	30.5	0
18	1911-1912	30.7	0
19	1958-1959	30.8	0
20	1993-1994	31.1	0
-	1934-1935	31.1	0
21	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
-	1909-1910	31.2	0
-	1870-1871	31.2	4
22	2014-2015	31.4	0
-	1921-1922	31.4	0

There is a million times better chance of the Jets winning 10 consecutive Super Bowls than 1917-1918 being replaced as the coldest winter......that record is safe 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

It's scary how short our winters have become. 

I was out on LI last week.  I was amazed by how much color was still on the trees and vegetation.  In decades past this was done by second week of November.

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some charts to illustrate the ongoing trends:

 

Thanks Don!

I tend to think it's 75% natural cyclical warming, 25% human induced. 

What is odd is it seems that April has been colder than average the last 10 years. May be a statistical anomaly.

[LibertyBell]

Look at all the cold we had in the late 1800s....if we had an even more complete climate record going back to when NYC was first settled, would any winter after 1917-18 be in the top 20?!

 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Tatamy said:

I was out on LI last week.  I was amazed by how much color was still on the trees and vegetation.  In decades past this was done by second week of November.

yeah big difference leaf drop wise around here as well.    

[TugHillMatt]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

When did you first begin to notice that?

 

Well,, I have lived in Upstate NY for 5 years. Every year, especially here in Central NY, has been exceptionally warm, with heat records being broken left and right. Every single winter has been well-below normal snowfall. It's been especially hard here in lower elevations, where the warmth just floods in. While thaws are normal during winter, it's just been M.I.A. and seriously like an eternal November. I lived in Michigan for a decade before this, and it was very similar. I saw the decline of winter in the Great Lakes throughout the teens. Hopefully it's just a "blip" but I am doubtful.

Winters up here remind me of a somewhat snowier version of what they were like when I was growing up in Southeastern PA. Rarely any pure snowstorms anymore. 

[EastonSN+]

Took a look at the LR guidance and it still looks good as we head into mid/late month.

Only December 6, a long way before the solstice. 

I will say if the LR guidance overnight is correct (and we all know that's a big IF), then 2012/2013 looks like a better analog (east half of sub forum benefits more).

Does anyone have the 12/13 snowfall totals for central park? 

SW CT ended up approx. 129% of average annual snowfall.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Well,, I have lived in Upstate NY for 5 years. Every year, especially here in Central NY, has been exceptionally warm, with heat records being broken left and right. Every single winter has been well-below normal snowfall. It's been especially hard here in lower elevations, where the warmth just floods in. While thaws are normal during winter, it's just been M.I.A. and seriously like an eternal November. I lived in Michigan for a decade before this, and it was very similar. I saw the decline of winter in the Great Lakes throughout the teens. Hopefully it's just a "blip" but I am doubtful.

Winters up here remind me of a somewhat snowier version of what they were like when I was growing up in Southeastern PA. Rarely any pure snowstorms anymore. 

Thanks for the reply. If you are looking for a Christmas gift for yourself, I suggest buying So Cold a Sky...it is a great book!!

https://www.amazon.com/Cold-Upper-Michigan-Weather-Stories/dp/097781890X/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at all the cold we had in the late 1800s....if we had an even more complete climate record going back to when NYC was first settled, would any winter after 1917-18 be in the top 20?!

 

Still emerging from the last mini ice age and have a ways to go before we plateau.

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1976-77 was mediocre for snow though....one bonus of the new pattern is much less suppression and more bombing of coastal lows so more snow.  That kind of extreme cold isn't good for snow in our area.

76-77 was done by mid February.  It was about 6 weeks of excitement.

[Volcanic Winter]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at all the cold we had in the late 1800s....if we had an even more complete climate record going back to when NYC was first settled, would any winter after 1917-18 be in the top 20?!

 

The 1810’s are supposed to be the coldest decade of recorded history, after the 1808/9 eruption and Tambora in 1815. 

The late 1700’s had some incredible cold, too. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Took a look at the LR guidance and it still looks good as we head into mid/late month.

Only December 6, a long way before the solstice. 

I will say if the LR guidance overnight is correct (and we all know that's a big IF), then 2012/2013 looks like a better analog (east half of sub forum benefits more).

Does anyone have the 12/13 snowfall totals for central park? 

SW CT ended up approx. 129% of average annual snowfall.

Mostly from 2 storms, Feb and March had a monster each month

[EastonSN+]

https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age

Good read.

Our next threat window.

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was 1976-1977.  The last top 20 was 93-94. 14-15 would be the coldest of the last decade coming in at 22nd place. But while February had impressive sustained cold, the lowest temperatures never really came close to the 76-94 era around the region. It’s funny that NYC couldn’t go below 0°in February 2015, but did it in the record warm winter on Valentines Day 2016. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1917-1918	25.7	0
2	1880-1881	26.5	0
3	1903-1904	27.3	0
4	1919-1920	27.4	0
5	1874-1875	27.7	4
-	1872-1873	27.7	0
6	1904-1905	28.1	0
7	1935-1936	28.3	0
8	1976-1977	28.4	0
-	1884-1885	28.4	0
-	1882-1883	28.4	0
9	1892-1893	28.6	0
-	1887-1888	28.6	0
10	1878-1879	29.0	2
11	1933-1934	29.1	0
12	1871-1872	29.5	2
13	1962-1963	29.9	0
-	1922-1923	29.9	0
-	1885-1886	29.9	0
-	1876-1877	29.9	0
14	1947-1948	30.0	0
-	1886-1887	30.0	0
-	1883-1884	30.0	0
15	1894-1895	30.2	0
16	1977-1978	30.3	0
17	1969-1970	30.5	0
-	1944-1945	30.5	0
18	1911-1912	30.7	0
19	1958-1959	30.8	0
20	1993-1994	31.1	0
-	1934-1935	31.1	0
21	2002-2003	31.2	0
-	1967-1968	31.2	0
-	1909-1910	31.2	0
-	1870-1871	31.2	4
22	2014-2015	31.4	0
-	1921-1922	31.4	0

Great post. I would’ve thought 03-04 would be up there but I was wrong 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The 1810’s are supposed to be the coldest decade of recorded history, after the 1808/9 eruption and Tambora in 1815. 

The late 1700’s had some incredible cold, too. 

Yes there's an excellent book written by David Ludlum that mentions this, in the late 1700s and early to mid 1800s, there were a few winters where both NYC and Philly received 100" of snow and in the Poconos more than 12 feet of snow!

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Mostly from 2 storms, Feb and March had a monster each month

There was a snowstorm in November too, and since we didn't get that if you subtract that from the totals, most of us are below average snowfall.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

Mostly from 2 storms, Feb and March had a monster each month

One of the benefits of being in the northeast, always in the game for a monster like Feb 2006, March 2018, Feb 1983 etc etc. Also one or two big storms are how the coastal plain usually adds up snowfall.

Was definitely back loaded however we also scored 4 inches that December so NOT a shut out early on. 

Even if NEMO was a pedestrian 10 inch event we would have reached average annual snowfall that year.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes there's an excellent book written by David Ludlum that mentions this, in the late 1700s and early to mid 1800s, there were a few winters where both NYC and Philly received 100" of snow and in the Poconos more than 12 feet of snow!

 

Early American Winters Volumes 1 & 2...must reads for any weather enthusiast. 

[EastonSN+]

Can't find it but Bluewave showed the H5 shot of December 2012. Looks close to what we are getting.

Sign me up! Of course no two winters are alike, results may vary.

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Great post. I would’ve thought 03-04 would be up there but I was wrong 

I'd gladly take a repeat of that winter even with nothing happening in February 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'd gladly take a repeat of that winter even with nothing happening in February 

Best and last clipper we ever had 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Best and last clipper we ever had 

Unsolved Mysteries should do a show on the disappearance of the Alberta Clipper!

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Unsolved Mysteries should do a show on the disappearance of the Alberta Clipper!

We had them at least once a month back in the 80s....they were good for 2-4 or even 3-5 inches sometimes.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Best and last clipper we ever had 

Clippers are rare now that is for sure

[Stormlover74]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Best and last clipper we ever had 

Technically Jan 2005 was a clipper that blew up into a noreaster. Some of the heaviest snow I've had to drive through occurred during the first portion of that storm

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Unsolved Mysteries should do a show on the disappearance of the Alberta Clipper!

 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

We had them at least once a month back in the 80s....they were good for 2-4 or even 3-5 inches sometimes.

I don’t miss them drying up on radar crossing the mountains as a kid 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

We had them at least once a month back in the 80s....they were good for 2-4 or even 3-5 inches sometimes.

They were great for providing reinforcing shots of cold air and at times some decent snow.  I think one of the reasons for the disappearance of them is the tendency for storms to hit the pacific NW.