December 2022

[eduggs]

I can't remember such a convoluted height field in decades of model watching. Probably there have been other such periods, but none that are memorable to me. On the NA chart, there are too many shortwaves and pockets of vorticity to count, haphazardly evolving in sometimes opposing directions. I can't imagine the mid-range models will demonstrate high forecast skill during this period.

[eduggs]

This next 10 day timeframe feels to me like a period when the higher elevations from CPA through the Poconos, Catskills, and Taconics/Berkshires of NY/MA could get unexpectedly smoked. Like a late-evolving, high-elevation warning event. There are lots of little waves in the flow, marginal cold air, and a tendency towards a lack of progressiveness. What will likely skunk the coastal plain is a complete lack of antecedent boundary layer cold air. There will likely be a northeasterly cold air drain at times, but early indications are that the lower 1000ft or so will remain torched. I expect lots of model variability and maybe a few surprises.

[Rjay]

  On 12/6/2022 at 4:29 AM, eduggs said:

I can't remember such a convoluted height field in decades of model watching. Probably there have been other such periods, but none that are memorable to me. On the NA chart, there are too many shortwaves and pockets of vorticity to count, haphazardly evolving in sometimes opposing directions. I can't imagine the mid-range models will demonstrate high forecast skill during this period.

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Been thinking the same thing.  It's wild. 

[NorthShoreWx]

  On 12/5/2022 at 8:13 PM, HeadInTheClouds said:

When what gets better? Verification scores 10 days out are low. To have an op model, and a crap model at that, go out 16 days is useless. 

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When the model gets better. Some day it will. You could have said the same once upon a time about the LFM past 2 days.

[wishcast_hater]

  On 12/6/2022 at 5:50 AM, NorthShoreWx said:

When the model gets better. Some day it will. You could have said the same once upon a time about the LFM past 2 days.

You have a lot of faith. It seems that every model that was upgraded has in fact been a downgrade all while we are supposedly more technologically advanced. Watching my forecast for the past 2 weeks is like the proverbial carrot and the mule. It keeps showing cold weather ahead but keeps pushing it into the future.


.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and very mild. Some showers and periods of rain are likely. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 57°

Philadelphia: 57°

The mild weather will continue into Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 47.1°; 15-Year: 47.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 47.6°; 15-Year: 48.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 49.4°

[Dark Star]

  On 12/6/2022 at 9:29 AM, wishcast_hater said:

You have a lot of faith. It seems that every model that was upgraded has in fact been a downgrade all while we are supposedly more technologically advanced. Watching my forecast for the past 2 weeks is like the proverbial carrot and the mule. It keeps showing cold weather ahead but keeps pushing it into the future.


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Almost sounds like last winter?

[Brian5671]

  On 12/6/2022 at 9:29 AM, wishcast_hater said:

You have a lot of faith. It seems that every model that was upgraded has in fact been a downgrade all while we are supposedly more technologically advanced. Watching my forecast for the past 2 weeks is like the proverbial carrot and the mule. It keeps showing cold weather ahead but keeps pushing it into the future.


.

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Usually the kiss of death....

[Brian5671]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:08 PM, bluewave said:

The storm tracks might not matter that much for the coast. Weaker systems may get suppressed if they are spaced too close together.  More amplified systems will run further north and bring mostly rain.  The EPS is milder than average for the whole run.

 

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Classic -PNA there.   All the cold is out west while we torch.   

[SnoSki14]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:08 PM, bluewave said:

The storm tracks might not matter that much for the coast. Weaker systems may get suppressed if they are spaced too close together.  More amplified systems will run further north and bring mostly rain.  The EPS is milder than average for the whole run.

 

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Another busted December. More of the same pacific garbage. 

Wake me up when the Nina crap finally ends 

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:11 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Another busted December. More of the same pacific garbage. 

Wake me up when the Nina crap finally ends 

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Im going to remain patient since sometimes it takes time to feel the effects of the blocking pattern.

I don't want to hear anyone anymore say the PNA is not important. We have been screwed so many times with a negative PNA.

We need a EL Nino 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:18 PM, MJO812 said:

Im going to remain patient since sometimes it takes time to feel the effects of the blocking pattern.

I don't want to hear anyone anymore say the PNA is not important. We have been screwed so many times with a negative PNA.

We need a EL Nino 

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This is quickly becoming last December 

[Brian5671]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:18 PM, MJO812 said:

Im going to remain patient since sometimes it takes time to feel the effects of the blocking pattern.

I don't want to hear anyone anymore say the PNA is not important. We have been screwed so many times with a negative PNA.

We need a EL Nino 

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We may get something towards Xmas-that would be nice-but this is not what was modeled 7-10 days ago that is for sure...

[SnoSki14]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:18 PM, MJO812 said:

Im going to remain patient since sometimes it takes time to feel the effects of the blocking pattern.

I don't want to hear anyone anymore say the PNA is not important. We have been screwed so many times with a negative PNA.

We need a EL Nino 

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The PNA is forecast to trend towards neutral near mid month so theoretically the pattern shouldn't be as hostile. 

It'll prob be temporary but there's a window for something wintrier in the Dec 15-25th timeframe. However the PNA could just as easily end up more negative like we've seen and then we're prob toast til Jan. 

January imo will be our best opportunity. Another 2-3 week winter is probable

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    46degs.(44/49) or +8.

Bowling a 300 Game along 74W---Yeah, and we Strike Out.        The Rossby Wave Theory does have BN around the 18th., but then blasts it AN till 2nd Week of Jan.

Reached 47 here yesterday.

Today:   51-53, wind se., cloudy, Rain-Noon>>>Tomorrow AM, 52 tomorrow AM.

48*(81%RH) here at 6am.    was 46 overnight.       50* at 7am.      54* at 9am.      55* at 10am.---all day-----56* at 6pm.

 

 

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:25 PM, SnoSki14 said:

The PNA is forecast to trend towards neutral near mid month so theoretically the pattern shouldn't be as hostile. 

It'll prob be temporary but there's a window for something wintrier in the Dec 15-25th timeframe. However the PNA could just as easily end up more negative like we've seen and then we're prob toast til Jan. 

January imo will be our best opportunity. Another 2-3 week winter is probable

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It's scary how short our winters have become. 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:51 PM, MJO812 said:

It's scary how short our winters have become. 

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We are starting to loose December as a winter month because of recent warming 

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2022 at 1:09 PM, Allsnow said:

We are starting to loose December as a winter month because of recent warming 

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March is the new December?

[Brian5671]

  On 12/6/2022 at 1:09 PM, Allsnow said:

We are starting to loose December as a winter month because of recent warming 

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December since 2011 have been warm and snowless outside of storms in 2013 and 2020 but it warmed right back up after the those mid month storms.     Can't have a bad PAC in December-we're just locking in a crappy airmass with any Atlantic block...looks warm and stormy next couple of weeks....more drought busting rains at least...

[Volcanic Winter]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:51 PM, MJO812 said:

It's scary how short our winters have become. 

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It’s the most upsetting aspect of how our climate is evolving. On balance, I wouldn’t care as much if we get mild patterns if we also continued to have actual winters. But they’re evaporating, fast. If you dig through historical records as I’ve done from a volcanology perspective, it gets extremely depressing how different things are today. 1-200 years is a geologic nanosecond and our climate is now vastly different, in the blink of an eye. How that doesn’t absolutely terrify every living soul on this planet BAFFLES me. 
 

This kind of rapid change is unprecedented outside of acute global events like bolide impacts. Even the flood basalt eruptions that cooked the planet to end the Permian took thousands of years. 

[bluewave]

  On 12/6/2022 at 1:09 PM, Allsnow said:

We are starting to loose December as a winter month because of recent warming 

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If we define winter as the number of days with the average temperature under 40°, then EWR to POU have lost about 3 weeks since 1950.

[Volcanic Winter]

  On 12/6/2022 at 1:28 PM, bluewave said:

If we define winter as the number of days with the average temperature under 40°, then EWR to POU have lost about 3 weeks since 1950.

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Depressing. 
 

Our new normal for the majority of the year is soon to be shorts and swamp ass. 

[lee59]

  On 12/6/2022 at 1:27 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

It’s the most upsetting aspect of how our climate is evolving. On balance, I wouldn’t care as much if we get mild patterns if we also continued to have actual winters. But they’re evaporating, fast. If you dig through historical records as I’ve done from a volcanology perspective, it gets extremely depressing how different things are today. 1-200 years is a geologic nanosecond and our climate is now vastly different, in the blink of an eye. How that doesn’t absolutely terrify every living soul on this planet BAFFLES me. 

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Be this good or bad, correct or wrong, most people are probably glad that winters here are not as severe.

[ag3]

Why are people complaining about the GFS after day 7. No model is good after day 5-6. Using the GFS at hour 378 is comedy.

The truth is that the GFS is the 1st model to catch the issues with the pac and the SE ridge. Euro caught on 2 days later.

The EPS have been AWFUL! Not sure what people are looking at. The EPS have looked great in the day 7-15 period for 3 weeks and keeps pushing back the pattern. EPS was atrocious last year as well.

 

Short memories.

[Volcanic Winter]

  On 12/6/2022 at 1:36 PM, lee59 said:

Be this good or bad, correct or wrong, most people are probably glad that winters here are not as severe.

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I don’t want to derail but will just acknowledge that this is definitely true, and also a big part of the reason there are so many people who hear about AGW and go, “so what?”

 

Back to the Goofus and Eurine show. 

[Allsnow]

  On 12/6/2022 at 1:20 PM, Brian5671 said:

December since 2011 have been warm and snowless outside of storms in 2013 and 2020 but it warmed right back up after the those mid month storms.     Can't have a bad PAC in December-we're just locking in a crappy airmass with any Atlantic block...looks warm and stormy next couple of weeks....more drought busting rains at least...

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December 2017 was the last real cold one we have had. That month was all driven by pac/epo…

 

Please kick this nao to the curb 

[MJO812]

  On 12/6/2022 at 1:41 PM, Allsnow said:

December 2017 was the last real cold one we have had. That month was all driven by pac/epo…

 

Please kick this nao to the curb 

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Its funny how people think we need a NAO. Yes it's beneficial for a big slow moving storm but not for snow .

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 12/6/2022 at 12:51 PM, MJO812 said:

It's scary how short our winters have become. 

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Winters are the same length but there is far less winter type weather during winter.  People are just going to have to accept the impact that climate change has had on winter.

[LibertyBell]

  On 12/6/2022 at 4:37 AM, eduggs said:

This next 10 day timeframe feels to me like a period when the higher elevations from CPA through the Poconos, Catskills, and Taconics/Berkshires of NY/MA could get unexpectedly smoked. Like a late-evolving, high-elevation warning event. There are lots of little waves in the flow, marginal cold air, and a tendency towards a lack of progressiveness. What will likely skunk the coastal plain is a complete lack of antecedent boundary layer cold air. There will likely be a northeasterly cold air drain at times, but early indications are that the lower 1000ft or so will remain torched. I expect lots of model variability and maybe a few surprises.

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They are elevated after all.  There's a reason you want to be in the mountains to see snow fall.  Looks like my Poconos place is going to get some mighty fine skiing!

 

[bluewave]

  On 12/6/2022 at 1:34 PM, Volcanic Winter said:

Depressing. 
 

Our new normal for the majority of the year is soon to be shorts and swamp ass. 

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It would be nice if some long range forecasting blogs update their climo and stop discussing winter analog packages from the colder 76-77 to 93-94 era. It’s been difficult to find many winter analogs even before the 15-16 super El Niño that are still valid. But discussing analogs from colder eras seems to bring a sense of nostalgia so I can understand where it is coming from. But the likelihood of seeing a repeat of January 1977, 1982, 1985, or 1994 is pretty much nonexistent in our much warmer world.