EasternLI Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I personally would like to see more Alaskan ridging instead of Aleutian ridging, which the EPS is trying to do out towards day 14-15. I think we do see some of that later on, eventually. But I'm referring to the stratosphere. The Urals ridging is a very good sign for vortex disruption. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 More changes on gfs Feeling the block more on this run today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: boxing day happened when the west coast trough sharpened and retrograded. it spiked a rockies ridge which sent a shortwave down the midwest It took close to 10 days for the retrogression to complete following the strongest global 500 mb block since 1950. https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2011/01/26/while-the-u-s-shivered-amazing-arctic-warmth/ 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I think we do see some of that later on, eventually. But I'm referring to the stratosphere. The Urals ridging is a very good sign for vortex disruption. HM felt like we could get a SSW toward end of this month/early January so we shall see if he is correct. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I think we do see some of that later on, eventually. But I'm referring to the stratosphere. The Urals ridging is a very good sign for vortex disruption. Is this similar to what happened in 12/13? We had the block in December then the snowstorms of Feb and March that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: HM felt like we could get a SSW toward end of this month/early January so we shall see if he is correct. Yeah, it'll be interesting too because it's been beat up all November. It's getting beat up by this block. From below, which is unusual. I think it's worth the occasional glance. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Odds are things trend better than worse given teleconnections. Even the MJO is moving in a better direction although its impacts are pretty nil right now. I would keep an eye out for the 9th. Watch to see if the high to the north trends stronger and pushes more cold air south 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Odds are things trend better than worse given teleconnections. Even the MJO is moving in a better direction although its impacts are pretty nil right now. I would keep an eye out for the 9th. Watch to see if the high to the north trends stronger and pushes more cold air south Check the changes from 6z and 12z gfs run. Comical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Is this similar to what happened in 12/13? We had the block in December then the snowstorms of Feb and March that year. I don't think so. This seems kind of unique. Funky year. I wouldn't compare it to anything. It'll be interesting to look back at it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 A deep trough in the West can work for us later in the season. Nemo in February 2013 probably had the most unusual teleconnection set up for a 30”+ event in our area. But that involved a phase. So the trough kept the heaviest snows east of NYC. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: A deep trough in the West can work for us later in the season. Nemo in February 2013 probably had the most unusual teleconnection set up for a 30”+ event in our area. But that involved a phase. So the trough kept the heaviest snows east of NYC. Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 The gfs is a joke. Flip flopping like a fish out of water. Cmc looks better for next Friday. Feeling the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 59 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, it'll be interesting too because it's been beat up all November. It's getting beat up by this block. From below, which is unusual. I think it's worth the occasional glance. Oh wow thats a major signal for disruption to the SPV. Dont normally see a complete split like that depiction. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 46 minutes ago, bluewave said: A deep trough in the West can work for us later in the season. Nemo in February 2013 probably had the most unusual teleconnection set up for a 30”+ event in our area. But that involved a phase. So the trough kept the heaviest snows east of NYC. I had 22 when I was in Norwalk. Would have been 35 where I am now. One thing about central park in that storm is a portion was rain. How much would have accumulated if it was all snow? I am thinking what NE NJ got about 16 inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific. Nemo was the only snowstorm since the Doppler radars came out to have a 50 dbz snow band near our area. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/incredible-imagery-from-the-february-8-9-2013-new-england-blizzard/2013/02/11/b51df444-73f1-11e2-aa12-e6cf1d31106b_blog.html 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Some winter trends for New York City: Rising winter temperatures, rising seasonal snowfall, fewer but bigger events. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific. Was amazingly consistent snowfall totals wise. From Norwalk CT to New Rochelle ALL reported 22 inches. Never saw consistency like that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 This is consistency I MISSED the mega band and still got 22 in Norwalk CT. Crazy. 835 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... PORT CHESTER 23.3 745 AM 2/09 PUBLIC YONKERS 23.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ARDSLEY 23.0 740 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SCARSDALE 22.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC EASTCHESTER 22.5 700 AM 2/09 BROADCAST MEDIA MAMARONECK 22.0 530 AM 2/09 PUBLIC LARCHMONT 22.0 705 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HARTSDALE 21.5 820 AM 2/09 VILLAGE EMPLOYEE DOBBS FERRY 21.5 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BRONXVILLE 21.3 630 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON 21.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WHITE PLAINS 21.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC RYE 20.0 630 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ARMONK 20.0 816 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MOUNT VERNON 17.2 300 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SOMERS 16.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MOUNT KISCO 14.0 710 AM 2/09 PUBLIC SLEEPY HOLLOW 12.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC HARRISON 12.0 745 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MILLWOOD 11.6 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC OSSINING 11.5 405 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Here is SW CT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... FAIRFIELD 35.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC STRATFORD 33.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MONROE 30.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BRIDGEPORT 30.0 658 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER SHELTON 26.5 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC WESTON 26.5 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WESTPORT 24.5 645 AM 2/09 PUBLIC GREENWICH 22.5 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC DARIEN 22.1 500 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORWALK 22.0 730 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ROXBURY 22.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW CANAAN 22.0 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT DANBURY 21.5 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT STAMFORD 19.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEWTOWN 17.1 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC BETHEL 16.0 800 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER RIDGEFIELD 12.0 800 AM 2/09 PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I had 22 when I was in Norwalk. Would have been 35 where I am now. One thing about central park in that storm is a portion was rain. How much would have accumulated if it was all snow? I am thinking what NE NJ got about 16 inches. Nemo had an amazing coverage of 30”+ amounts around the region. But those amounts were restricted to east of NYC. It was one of the few times just getting 10”-20” was a disappointment. CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... FAIRFIELD 35.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC STRATFORD 33.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MONROE 30.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BRIDGEPORT 30.0 658 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER MIDDLESEX COUNTY... EAST HADDAM 35.5 845 AM 2/09 PUBLIC OLD SAYBROOK 30.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT NEW HAVEN COUNTY... HAMDEN 40.0 100 PM 2/09 PUBLIC MILFORD 38.0 615 AM 2/09 PUBLIC CLINTONVILLE 37.0 1040 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER OXFORD 36.2 600 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NORTH BRANFORD 36.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MERIDEN 36.0 200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC YALESVILLE 35.0 909 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WALLINGFORD 35.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW HAVEN 34.3 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT WEST HAVEN 34.0 1040 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORTHFORD 33.5 950 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WOLCOTT 33.0 457 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER EAST HAVEN 33.0 1005 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER GUILFORD 33.0 1113 AM 2/09 BROADCAST MEDIA NORTH GUILFORD 32.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WATERBURY 32.0 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MADISON 32.0 321 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NAUGATUCK 30.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW LONDON COUNTY... COLCHESTER 31.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Nemo had an amazing coverage of 30”+ amounts around the region. But those amounts were restricted to east of NYC. It was one of the few times just getting 10”-20” was a disappointment. CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... FAIRFIELD 35.0 1000 AM 2/09 PUBLIC STRATFORD 33.0 1030 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MONROE 30.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER BRIDGEPORT 30.0 658 AM 2/09 COOP OBSERVER MIDDLESEX COUNTY... EAST HADDAM 35.5 845 AM 2/09 PUBLIC OLD SAYBROOK 30.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT NEW HAVEN COUNTY... HAMDEN 40.0 100 PM 2/09 PUBLIC MILFORD 38.0 615 AM 2/09 PUBLIC CLINTONVILLE 37.0 1040 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER OXFORD 36.2 600 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NORTH BRANFORD 36.0 1100 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MERIDEN 36.0 200 PM 2/09 PUBLIC YALESVILLE 35.0 909 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WALLINGFORD 35.0 700 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW HAVEN 34.3 600 AM 2/09 CT DOT WEST HAVEN 34.0 1040 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NORTHFORD 33.5 950 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WOLCOTT 33.0 457 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER EAST HAVEN 33.0 1005 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER GUILFORD 33.0 1113 AM 2/09 BROADCAST MEDIA NORTH GUILFORD 32.0 900 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER WATERBURY 32.0 900 AM 2/09 PUBLIC MADISON 32.0 321 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NAUGATUCK 30.0 600 AM 2/09 PUBLIC NEW LONDON COUNTY... COLCHESTER 31.0 1200 PM 2/09 CT DOT Completely agree. It's funny that we could look back and say "the storm missed my area and I got a measly 22". Although if someone said I could have the same storm and miss now I would sign up in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oh wow thats a major signal for disruption to the SPV. Dont normally see a complete split like that depiction. It's been getting hammered. But still not enough. The end of the month though has potential for a show. The precursor look is there on all guidance. And with an evolving favorable tropical signal. Which is looking good at this time as well btw. It's not the standard situation for sure. Real signs pointing to watch this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 35 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: The gfs is a joke. Flip flopping like a fish out of water. Cmc looks better for next Friday. Feeling the block GFS & CMC QPF maps at 240 hrs. for comparison 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Completely agree. It's funny that we could look back and say "the storm missed my area and I got a measly 22". Although if someone said I could have the same storm and miss now I would sign up in a heartbeat. 29" in Huntington where I live now and the death band was 30 miles east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 That 35 in Fairfield is bogus. We had about 25-30 here. Hard to tell with all the drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 12z Euro a big warm cutter for next sunday into monday. No surprise as most of the evidence is pointing to that being a cutter. As others have said, we do need to keep an eye on the smaller system before that for friday into saturday. Temps look borderline, and this 12z Euro run has us near the rain/snow line. Hopefully we can get a little more cold air to press down, but I wouldn't be too optimistic right now considering we have warm temps leading into that potential event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro a big warm cutter for next sunday into monday. No surprise as most of the evidence is pointing to that being a cutter. As others have said, we do need to keep an eye on the smaller system before that for friday into saturday. Temps look borderline, and this 12z Euro run has us near the rain/snow line. Hopefully we can get a little more cold air to press down, but I wouldn't be too optimistic right now considering we have warm temps leading into that potential event. Yep for now it's a cutter but with the NAO getting established , I wouldn't be shocked to see that storm trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro a big warm cutter for next sunday into monday. No surprise as most of the evidence is pointing to that being a cutter. As others have said, we do need to keep an eye on the smaller system before that for friday into saturday. Temps look borderline, and this 12z Euro run has us near the rain/snow line. Hopefully we can get a little more cold air to press down, but I wouldn't be too optimistic right now considering we have warm temps leading into that potential event. As long as it’s showing an event, it’s good. Where it tracks is anyones guess this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Stormy wet pattern continues. Summer drought has been completely wiped out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Statistically, insight regarding strong AO+ values proved useful in heralding the arrival of AO blocking in late November. A sustained AO- regime commenced on November 23. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58336-november-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6681570 Statistical trends in the PNA following the most similar December 3 cases suggest that, just as is shown on the dynamical guidance, the ongoing PNA- regime will be slow to breakdown. By the end of the third week in December, values should be less negative than they currently are. However, the development of sustained positive values by that time seems unlikely (not zero, but still a less than one-in-three probability). 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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