Rjay Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 I just LibertyBelled all of you 4 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 EPS looks amazing with a strong WB -NAO as well as a nice -EPO that’ll provide the cold air and strong NS shortwaves we’re going to have to be patient. not much has really changed, as most of the larger chances still likely come after the 15th. not to say that the 12th or so is shot, it’s just gravy compared to the latter half of the month the blocking is happening, by the way. there’s way too much hemispheric support for it to fail at this point… it’s a common progression from Scandinavia that is also known to start with SE ridging! that’s how these regimes start. just have to let it play out 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: taking the under due to climo but I like blocking in Dec-bodes well for add'l blocking later in the season. I think using CLIMO as a parameter in the likely outcome of any future synoptic setup is totally bogus. I have argued this point for a long time on this board. Climatology is the result of averaging weather outcomes over local, regional or national/worldwide areas. Using climatology as a factor in any given synoptic setup is ridiculous in my opinion. I know many knowledgeable people disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, qg_omega said: Lots of people pointed out the issues weeks ago Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Social media has made this hobby brutal. All sort of garbage out there that you have to sift through. Always look at "what could go wrong" It will temper expectations. Candidate for post of the year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS looks amazing with a strong WB -NAO as well as a nice -EPO that’ll provide the cold air and strong NS shortwaves we’re going to have to be patient. not much has really changed, as most of the larger chances still likely come after the 15th. not to say that the 12th or so is shot, it’s just gravy compared to the latter half of the month the blocking is happening, by the way. there’s way too much hemispheric support for it to fail at this point… it’s a common progression from Scandinavia that is also known to start with SE ridging! that’s how these regimes start. just have to let it play out Excellent post. Hopefully most will understand it and just sit back and let things unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: I just LibertyBelled all of you After all these years of knowing what tristate area weather is like, I can't believe so many are ready to jump off the ledge.....do people not realize that this is how our good patterns usually begin-- with models jumping the gun on pattern changes, often by a week or two? Winter actually begins in the third week of December, so anything before that is a bonus. This is not a pattern being delayed in the middle of February-- ACTUAL winter hasn't even started yet! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 hours ago, qg_omega said: Massive block means little when it links up with the SE ridge and strong negative PNA. It’s very possible we link up the ridges and can go very above normal for the second half of December That isn’t possible. Blocking suppresses the SE ridge, what we are seeing is the SE ridge already in place, that’s why the blocking and SE ridge look like they are linked up initially. That’s the beginning of the pattern change, the SE ridge gets beaten down some, not completely but enough for NYC north. In Dec 2010 we had a negative NAO and negative PNA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Strong blocking patterns can take time to evolve where ridging and warmth in the East gives way to colder conditions and snowfall. November-December 2010 provides a good illustration: 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The GFS keeps T between 32 to 56 with 3" of rain over the next 15 days. Can not even get lower than the 27 of November 21st. Rossby Wave output has just one BN period at mid-month. Sizzles otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Holy hell it’s the second day of December… 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 EPS looks amazing with a strong WB -NAO as well as a nice -EPO that’ll provide the cold air and strong NS shortwaves we’re going to have to be patient. not much has really changed, as most of the larger chances still likely come after the 15th. not to say that the 12th or so is shot, it’s just gravy compared to the latter half of the month the blocking is happening, by the way. there’s way too much hemispheric support for it to fail at this point… it’s a common progression from Scandinavia that is also known to start with SE ridging! that’s how these regimes start. just have to let it play outProbably setting up for a big storm around the 17th followed by the Christmas week torch that cancels any chance of a White Christmas, just like it happened in 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Gfs is colder than the 12z run so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Here comes the 12th event on the gfs Feeling the block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is colder than the 12z run so far Pacific becomes a little more favorable and everything trends a lot better. That'll be key over next 10 days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Pacific becomes a little more favorable and everything trends a lot better. That'll be key over next 10 days Going to show a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 Winter uncancel? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Winter uncancel? Lol Another GFS upgrade that’s actually a downgrade. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another GFS upgrade that’s actually a downgrade. The wavering from the GFS has been ridiculous. I don't know what they're doing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: The wavering from the GFS has been ridiculous. I don't know what they're doing Need a larger budget. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 SNOW MAPS NOW! Pipe burst in my basement, need a distraction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 2 Ohio valley storms that transfer to the coast on the long range GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: 2 Ohio valley storms that transfer to the coast on the long range GFS Gfs following the euro from 12z. Block is better positioned and se ridge muted. Weenie run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 A system will then bring warmer conditions and rain tomorrow before colder air returns to the region. Rain will likely overspread the region tomorrow morning. Most of the region will likely see 0.25"-0.50" of rain. With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase especially near or just after mid-month. The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter. The SOI was +15.31 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.351 today. On November 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.954 (RMM). The November 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.223 (RMM). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 2, 2022 Share Posted December 2, 2022 The gfs is comical. Patience grasshoppers. From the 12th on we're gonna rock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Humans love to categorize everything. We are compelled to separate things into boxes to understand a complicated world. But in truth, every 500mb height field is unique. There are no true patterns - only a collection of general characteristics that we lump together. I believe we do a disservice to ourselves by obsessing over these "patterns." And if long range 500mb anomaly charts ceased to exist, we would be smarter, happier people 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 7 hours ago, EasternLI said: The run ends here, for those interested. It looks toward end of the run with more of a central-eastern trough setting up if it's to be believed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 I don't care how good the long range ensembles look. Multiple rain events in December with snow threats pushed out beyond 10-day fantasyland is never a good thing for snow enthusiasts. When the goods are relegated to the distance extended timeframes, there's a reasonable chance they will never come. Eventually it will snow. But right now I see as many signs to be concerned as to be excited. Hopefully that changes for the better tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Going to show a snowstorm And of course GFS is back to showing a warmer cutter on the 0z run, as the model continues its flip flops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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