December 2022

[EastonSN+]

also on the topic of "Delayed and denied", I only remember this happening twice. 

01/02

19/20

Both times it was the worthless weeklies week 3 and beyond we were focusing on.

In this case both the GEFS and EPS are matching other than a couple of days difference.

[EasternLI]

I'm 100% fine with the trends we're seeing. I may be in the minority. That se ridge is part of the SSW precursor pattern. The classic looking textbook version of it. It's sort of on all the ensembles now. The NAO retro to west based still looks on track around the 13th. I haven't seen that change. It's before that. The models were rushing things for a bit. If we can see the SSW precursor pattern, which includes the se ridge mind you, for a few days. Still in early December. I'm all for it. It could end up paying large dividends later. All good in my eyes. 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like the 2010 block was further west into Canada in that snip - perhaps pushing the SE ridge a bit east in 2010.

This might help us avoid suppression in the initial stage.

We didn’t have the record warm pool off the East Coast in 2010 so the SE Ridge wasn’t an issue back then. Notice how models haven’t been able to see the SE Ridge day 11-15 recently. So the colder pattern keeps getting pushed back. I think there is more going on here than the typical errors handling the Pacific Jet. It’s an potential underestimation of warm water feedback process off the East Coast in the long range.

 

SSTs much warmer than 2010 to our east
 

New 6-10 colder gets pushed back

 

 

Old 11-15 missed the SE Ridge

 

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

Now that I trashed the weeklies, CFS weeklies look phenomenal - ha.

Of course I do not put much stock in them but weeks 2 through 6 present blocking early and -epo +PNA late. 

[nycwinter]

in 20 years no more winter just a extended fall

[EastonSN+]

Just now, nycwinter said:

in 20 years no more winter just a extended fall

Yeah wonder if it's cyclical.

I watched a show which focused on weather patterns in history. Mini ice ages and warm spells. Apparently at one point it was so warm globally that they were growing grapes in England.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We didn’t have the record warm pool off the East Coast in 2010 so the SE Ridge wasn’t an issue back then. Notice how models haven’t been able to see the SE Ridge day 11-15 recently. So the colder pattern keeps getting pushed back. I think there is more going on here than the typical errors handling the Pacific Jet. It’s an potential underestimation of warm water feedback process off the East Coast in the long range.

 

SSTs much warmer than 2010 to our east
 

New 6-10 colder gets pushed back

 

 

Old 11-15 missed the SE Ridge

 

 

 

 

These models are flip flopping alot.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We didn’t have the record warm pool off the East Coast in 2010 so the SE Ridge wasn’t an issue back then. Notice how models haven’t been able to see the SE Ridge day 11-15 recently. So the colder pattern keeps getting pushed back. I think there is more going on here than the typical errors handling the Pacific Jet. It’s an potential underestimation of warm water feedback process off the East Coast in the long range.

 

SSTs much warmer than 2010 to our east
 

New 6-10 colder gets pushed back

 

 

Old 11-15 missed the SE Ridge

 

 

 

 

Thanks for this!

IMO I believe while a SE can hurt in December and March, it can be a blessing in Jan Feb and blocking periods. 

I would have loved a bump in Feb 2010. That one hurt. Think Staten Island had 8 while Manhattan had 0.

[Volcanic Winter]

I mean, don’t crucify me but there was definitely hype building for “the period after the 5th.” So it does look like things have unfortunately evolved less favorably (if the latest guidance pans out) early - mid month but still with the potential intact for later in the month. I’ll take anything positive I can get, I’m a hardcore ride or die snow weenie. 
 

But I won’t say I’m not a little sad we may not see a more active and cold month in total. Maybe that was never really in the cards or maybe that’s so unlikely these days it’d be an actual unicorn. 
 

But hey, if we get something out of the potential around Xmas, that’s certainly amazing and I’ll be very happy (then). Until then please excuse my emotional rollercoaster .

[ForestHillWx]

11 hours ago, rclab said:

Good evening Don and thank you for the daily updates. 21 hours into December 1st and the month thread already has 11 pages. Stay well, as always ….

That’s nothing…New England is on p.52

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I mean, don’t crucify me but there was definitely hype building for “the period after the 5th.” So it does look like things have unfortunately evolved less favorably (if the latest guidance pans out) early - mid month but still with the potential intact for later in the month. I’ll take anything positive I can get, I’m a hardcore ride or die snow weenie. 
 

But I won’t say I’m not a little sad we may not see a more active and cold month in total. Maybe that was never really in the cards or maybe that’s so unlikely these days it’d be an actual unicorn. 
 

But hey, if we get something out of the potential around Xmas, that’s certainly amazing and I’ll be very happy (then). Until then please excuse my emotional rollercoaster .

Difficult to get cold Decembers with that warm water off the coast...A met once said "hit and hold cold" on the east coast is tough with warm water early on, but later in the winter it's our friend with fuel for nor easters etc

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this!

IMO I believe while a SE can hurt in December and March, it can be a blessing in Jan Feb and blocking periods. 

I would have loved a bump in Feb 2010. That one hurt. Think Staten Island had 8 while Manhattan had 0.

The hope is that the longer we sustain a -AO-NAO, the better a chance that we start to get a coastal storm track instead of a cutter. But we’ll probably have to be patient. The signal of the pattern change is when the 11-15 day colder forecast survives to the 6-10. 

[donsutherland1]

EPS temperature anomalies for December 12-19. The following week (lower skill) is also colder than normal in much of the East with near normal precipitation. No severe Arctic cold is currently indicated on the weeklies.

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The hope is that the longer we sustain a -AO-NAO, the better a chance that we start to get a coastal storm track instead of a cutter. But we’ll probably have to be patient. The signal of the pattern change is when the 11-15 day colder forecast survives to the 6-10. 

Given the longevity of this block that's probably the option to go with. 

[bluewave]

We have had only 1 colder than average December since 2011. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Departure
2021	43.8	+4.7
2020	39.2	+1.7
2019	38.3	+0.8
2018	40.1	+2.5
2017	35.0	-2.5
2016	38.3	+0.8
2015	50.8	+13.3
2014	40.5	+3.0
2013	38.5	+1.0
2012	41.5	+4.0
2011	43.3	+5.8
2010	32.8	-4.5

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

EPS temperature anomalies for December 12-19. The following week (lower skill) is also colder than normal in much of the East with near normal precipitation. No severe Arctic cold is currently indicated on the weeklies.

Thanks Don, 

Speaking of the CFS weeklies only (do not have EURO), loving the fact that the entire run is below average temps, but not arctic (would run risk of suppression IMO).

Like you said low skill range for these products - but very promising!

 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We didn’t have the record warm pool off the East Coast in 2010 so the SE Ridge wasn’t an issue back then. Notice how models haven’t been able to see the SE Ridge day 11-15 recently. So the colder pattern keeps getting pushed back. I think there is more going on here than the typical errors handling the Pacific Jet. It’s an potential underestimation of warm water feedback process off the East Coast in the long range.

 

SSTs much warmer than 2010 to our east
 

New 6-10 colder gets pushed back

 

 

Old 11-15 missed the SE Ridge

 

 

 

 

Great post !

[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have had only 1 colder than average December since 2011. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Departure
2021	43.8	+4.7
2020	39.2	+1.7
2019	38.3	+0.8
2018	40.1	+2.5
2017	35.0	-2.5
2016	38.3	+0.8
2015	50.8	+13.3
2014	40.5	+3.0
2013	38.5	+1.0
2012	41.5	+4.0
2011	43.3	+5.8
2010	32.8	-4.5

Always appreciate these comparison tables Bluewave. 2010 sticks out to the point where it feels like it may as well have been 100 years ago, climatologically. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Again, the developing pattern had 3 phases to it:

1. The block actually evolving and setting up shop....that is Dec 3-7. We see a couple milder systems during this time.

2. Block is established, but we are fighting the SE ridge before it retrogrades. This is Dec 8-12....we can sneak a wintry system in this period but it requires good timing and it's dealing with the gradient between the block and the SE ridge.

3. Block fully established but it has peaked in strength and SE ridge has retrograded further west allowing for more potential amplification of systems over the east. This is like 12/13 and beyond. This is the period that looks most favorable for larger systems.

Great post by ORH wxman wanted to share here. No need for concern IMO.

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging    45degs.(39/50) or +5.

Not pretty and only snow chance is the 10th.

Reached  43 here yesterday.

Today:    42-45, wind w. to s., p. sunny, 47 tomorrow AM.

34*(60%RH) here at 6am.         39* at 9am.        40* at Noon.       Reached 47* at 3:30pm.         43* at 6pm.    Up to 46* at 11pm.

[qg_omega]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have had only 1 colder than average December since 2011. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Departure
2021	43.8	+4.7
2020	39.2	+1.7
2019	38.3	+0.8
2018	40.1	+2.5
2017	35.0	-2.5
2016	38.3	+0.8
2015	50.8	+13.3
2014	40.5	+3.0
2013	38.5	+1.0
2012	41.5	+4.0
2011	43.3	+5.8
2010	32.8	-4.5

Looks above normal again for the month

[MJO812]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Looks above normal again for the month

No it doesn't 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The hope is that the longer we sustain a -AO-NAO, the better a chance that we start to get a coastal storm track instead of a cutter. But we’ll probably have to be patient. The signal of the pattern change is when the 11-15 day colder forecast survives to the 6-10. 

 

The main I problem I see is the GEFS now have the PNA in some cases as low as -2 in 15 days where most ensembles 4-5 days ago were near neutral.  If the GEFS is correct on the PNA and the EPS is not its hard to see even the GEFS mean 11-15 verifying of a trof in the east.

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Always appreciate these comparison tables Bluewave. 2010 sticks out to the point where it feels like it may as well have been 100 years ago, climatologically. 

You really dont need colder than average to get snow.  Just the right timing.  We've had many many colder than normal months that either turned out dry or the timing was off and we had mild wet and then cold dry.

There are other Decembers in there that were good for snow-- notably December 2020.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

We didn’t have the record warm pool off the East Coast in 2010 so the SE Ridge wasn’t an issue back then. Notice how models haven’t been able to see the SE Ridge day 11-15 recently. So the colder pattern keeps getting pushed back. I think there is more going on here than the typical errors handling the Pacific Jet. It’s an potential underestimation of warm water feedback process off the East Coast in the long range.

 

SSTs much warmer than 2010 to our east
 

New 6-10 colder gets pushed back

 

 

Old 11-15 missed the SE Ridge

 

 

 

 

Isn't that warm water good for bombogenesis and we might need that southeast ridge to avoid suppression.

 

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks above normal again for the month

 above normal monthly mean doesn't mean we can't get snowstorms-- there are some + Decembers in that list that still had a decent amount of snow.

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't that warm water good for bombogenesis and we might need that southeast ridge to avoid suppression.

 

Yes it is. It can be very good for us if the pattern is good.

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

You really dont need colder than average to get snow.  Just the right timing.  We've had many many colder than normal months that either turned out dry or the timing was off and we had mild wet and then cold dry.

There are other Decembers in there that were good for snow-- notably December 2020.

I’m definitely aware of that, I just find this sort of stark differential fascinating and have a personal love of cold weather in general. 
 

My concern is more the apparent permanence of the SE ridge anymore. It’s a voracious apex predator these days. 

[Brian5671]

30 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks above normal again for the month

First 2 weeks look to be above normal.  Question is the last 2 weeks-any further delay in the pattern could lead to an above normal month or if we get a "Warm" NAO block like Dec 1996.

[qg_omega]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

First 2 weeks look to be above normal.  Question is the last 2 weeks-any further delay in the pattern could lead to an above normal month or if we get a "Warm" NAO block like Dec 1996.

I said this two weeks ago