December 2022

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We got a foot at the end of December

I was just gonna say wasn't that the millennium storm.

It was the first major snow event since the terrible late 90s winters

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I was just gonna say wasn't that the millennium storm.

It was the first major snow event since the terrible late 90s winters

 

It was a fortunate setup too, we had a setup for a storm about 3 days prior but the shortwave which ultimately caused 12/30/00 ruined the initial event...that event may have been a more widespread Miller Aish KU whereas 12/30/00 was narrowed to a small area.   The 5 boroughs actually were not under a winter storm watch a single time from March 1996 until the December 2000 storm.  That is a record that probably never will  be exceeded again.  Obviously in today's meteorological advancement world both 3/20/98 and 1/25/00 likely would have had watches out and probably even 3/14/99 as well

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It was a fortunate setup too, we had a setup for a storm about 3 days prior but the shortwave which ultimately caused 12/30/00 ruined the initial event...that event may have been a more widespread Miller Aish KU whereas 12/30/00 was narrowed to a small area.   The 5 boroughs actually were not under a winter storm watch a single time from March 1996 until the December 2000 storm.  That is a record that probably never will  be exceeded again.

It was terribly modeled too-the night before, it was forecast to crush DCA to PHL and then turn to rain for NYC and points east.  Instead it shutout places SW of Philly they woke up to partly cloudy skies-meanwhile it was all snow for most of us here with a turn to rain in RI/eastern MA.

Winters of 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00 were awful.    Brutal stretch.   01-02 and 11-12 were bad but they were surrounded by good winters so took the bite off.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

37 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

There's always a chance of nothing. It's early and water temps are warm.... Some great patterns don't produce....

Yeah but with this setup suppression is more of a worry then inland runners. 
with that pattern I just don’t see how we don’t score at least one 6”+ event area wide. It may be several events with different areas doing better then others. But we all end up with at least one warning event. 
this might be our first white Christmas at the coast in ages 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah but with this setup suppression is more of a worry then inland runners. 
with that pattern I just don’t see how we don’t score at least one 6”+ event area wide. It may be several events with different areas doing better then others. But we all end up with at least one warning event. 
this might be our first white Christmas at the coast in ages 

yeah unlike some other years (2014, 2020) where we had the snow/cold early/mid month and then we got the usual xmas torch, this time frame looks better for the white xmas

[EasternLI]

Yeah, big fan of this year's pattern timing. It was potential before. But still looking on track. Nice 

[Nibor]

 

[EasternLI]

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

 

I'll see you that, and raise you this. Remember last years feedback loop?

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I was just gonna say wasn't that the millennium storm.

It was the first major snow event since the terrible late 90s winters

I remember the late 90s winters. Terrible. 

[Nibor]

16 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I'll see you that, and raise you this. Remember last years feedback loop?

 

I can’t help but get excited for this winter. I’m trying to limit my expectations because we’ve been burned before but man things are looking good.

[North and West]

 

.

[EasternLI]

13 minutes ago, Nibor said:

I can’t help but get excited for this winter. I’m trying to limit my expectations because we’ve been burned before but man things are looking good.

We haven't had anything like this in many years. Perhaps ever if it achieves record status. Trend arrow is definitely favorable. We've even seen some precursors. Just have to sit back and watch the show 

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

It was terribly modeled too-the night before, it was forecast to crush DCA to PHL and then turn to rain for NYC and points east.  Instead it shutout places SW of Philly they woke up to partly cloudy skies-meanwhile it was all snow for most of us here with a turn to rain in RI/eastern MA.

Winters of 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00 were awful.    Brutal stretch.   01-02 and 11-12 were bad but they were surrounded by good winters so took the bite off.

Yeah those winters really stunk! Some of those were my college years in the DC area and it was even worse there than it was here. I think there were maybe 2 "ok" events (3-5 inches max) in my 4 years there but not completely sure.

[EasternLI]

When you see a 200mb VP anomalies chart for the month of November. During a La nina. This is pretty much exactly what you would wish for.

The La Nina related MC forcing was mostly, not all, but mostly in the SH. But by South America (very difficult to do in la nina) it was not. It was more NH. So it appears to have dominated accordingly based on the upcoming pattern we're faced with. So for the lead in of any year, that's all you could ever ask for as far as I can tell. According to these charts anyway. Yes theres certainly other factors. A lot of the other factors aren't too shabby either. So hey, we'll see where it takes us. 

[SnowGoose69]

Verbatim the 18Z GFS 12/12 on is basically a Gulf Coast snow threat lol...hopefully we do not go that full blown shredder pattern.   I believe the 12/10-12/20 period in 2010 was similar to that but not quite that bad 

[Franklin0529]

Gfs is also weenie worthy! From like the 6th on.. buckle up!!

[WarrenCtyWx]

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Verbatim the 18Z GFS 12/12 on is basically a Gulf Coast snow threat lol...hopefully we do not go that full blown shredder pattern.   I believe the 12/10-12/20 period in 2010 was similar to that but not quite that bad 

Didn't Minneapolis have a major storm around the 12th in December 2010?

[brooklynwx99]

really nice to see the GEFS make continuous improvements over the Pacific for the last model cycle

this is part of the reason why I think the EPS is handling this pattern better, as it’s been way more consistent over the WC and AK

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Verbatim the 18Z GFS 12/12 on is basically a Gulf Coast snow threat lol...hopefully we do not go that full blown shredder pattern.   I believe the 12/10-12/20 period in 2010 was similar to that but not quite that bad 

Supression could be an issue if the blocking is too much...

[CIK62]

Adding the extra two weeks actually increased the anomaly.       Not the way LR works to my mind.       How can it know more about the  extra two weeks than the previous four.        I would think the earlier departures would become muted out in the end.    Snow cover perhaps.      FWIW      The GEFS is just a shell compared to this output---but the departures are in about the same locations, somewhat anyway.      Now where did I pack away my North Face Murdo Parka those many years ago?    lol.

 

[George001]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Supression could be an issue if the blocking is too much...

This doesn’t scream suppression at all

[donsutherland1]

Below is a common cluster of suppression cases where significant snowfall reached Washington, DC, but snowfall in New York City was less than 2". The block was expansive into the CONUS. Right now, that isn't the forecast pattern evolution.

[eduggs]

GFS, CMC, and EC are all still basically snowless out to 10 days. As we move into December we really should start to see some discrete threats within that time period. The reliability of modeled patterns beyond 10 days is somewhat tenuous. So we shouldn't get overconfident about long-range 500mb anomaly charts.

 

Snowstorms are really about well-timed features at the regional-scale more than continental scale patterns. The large-scale features are typically a prerequisite for big storms, but we still have to get lucky.

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Below is a common cluster of suppression cases where significant snowfall reached Washington, DC, but snowfall in New York City was less than 2". The block was expansive into the CONUS. Right now, that isn't the forecast pattern evolution.

The modeled pattern is about as favorable as you can get.

I see zero suppression risks and multiple snow events, some big once the pattern settles in.

Could easily be a 3-4 week snowy period imo. 

[eduggs]

Well we do have 2 or 3 rain events to track. It would be fun if this December could end up being the first month in a long while with more frozen liquid equivalent than rain.

[eduggs]

The 12z CMC shows an unusual scenario with rain approaching the area from both the west and the east at the same time around 240hrs. That's certainly uncommon. That specific depiction is unlikely to occur, and a wintrier outcome is definitely possible.

[Nibor]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z CMC shows an unusual scenario with rain approaching the area from both the west and the east at the same time around 240hrs. That's certainly uncommon. That specific depiction is unlikely to occur, and a wintrier outcome is definitely possible.

Hmmm...

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z CMC shows an unusual scenario with rain approaching the area from both the west and the east at the same time around 240hrs. That's certainly uncommon. That specific depiction is unlikely to occur, and a wintrier outcome is definitely possible.

It's a garbage run as are most of these op runs beyond 3-5 days

[psv88]

Finally caved a bought a snowblower. Will be here next week. 

Let it snow

[SnowGoose69]

50 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z CMC shows an unusual scenario with rain approaching the area from both the west and the east at the same time around 240hrs. That's certainly uncommon. That specific depiction is unlikely to occur, and a wintrier outcome is definitely possible.

The GFS looping it from 220-290 is hilarious with all the lows retrograding west in NE Canada