December 2022

[EastonSN+]

I think some are just spooked from last Decembers record RNA creating a shredder.

This RNA is a.) Not as deep and b) positioned better 

[EasternLI]

This EPO ridge must link with that NAO ridge to shove the trough east like it is doing. That looks like a critical action on some runs I've seen. If this west coast trough at this timeframe is the concern. But that's looking better and better as we get closer anyway thus far. And it's inside day 10 now. 

[SnoSki14]

It took until the end of 2010 before we reaped the benefits of the pattern and then it was smooth sailing for the next month or so. 

That's a sick -NAO block. One of these days the record warm waters will line up with a major block and produce a 3'+ snowstorm in the northeast. 

[EasternLI]

The runs that whiffed on that sorta messed up everything. But I haven't seen that anymore since then. 

[MJO812]

A positive PNA would actually be bad in the pattern depicted.

That's a deeply negative NAO on the models.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It took until the end of 2010 before we reaped the benefits of the pattern and then it was smooth sailing for the next month or so. 

That's a sick -NAO block. One of these days the record warm waters will line up with a major block and produce a 3'+ snowstorm in the northeast. 

I'd rather see a 4' snowstorm...

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It took until the end of 2010 before we reaped the benefits of the pattern and then it was smooth sailing for the next month or so. 

That's a sick -NAO block. One of these days the record warm waters will line up with a major block and produce a 3'+ snowstorm in the northeast. 

 

27 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I'd rather see a 4' snowstorm...

I'm enjoying where this fan fiction is going...

[EasternLI]

Now, I may be viewing matters through a different lens than others at this current moment in time. Models are seeing this anomalous blocking all the way up to 10mb. It's a thorn in the side of the vortex. So I say we crank up a record breaking block. Then go from there. 

[Eduardo]

10 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Now, I may be viewing matters through a different lens than others at this current moment in time. Models are seeing this anomalous blocking all the way up to 10mb. It's a thorn in the side of the vortex. So I say we crank up a record breaking block. Then go from there. 

A few steps ahead, perhaps (compared to me anyways).  Knocking the PV on its heels in a manner that yields a prolonged period of blocking would be a huge bonus, in my book.  Hoping hard for it but I’m def focused on just getting a period of something other than the terrible PAC puke to which we’ve grown accustomed. 

[CIK62]

  COUNTDOWN TO WEEK 2 OF DECEMBER BEGINS...........................but even then can't beat the 27 from Nov.

    

Also has some measurable (not memorable) snow Dec 07, 12.

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

A few steps ahead, perhaps (compared to me anyways).  Knocking the PV on its heels in a manner that yields a prolonged period of blocking would be a huge bonus, in my book.  Hoping hard for it but I’m def focused on just getting a period of something other than the terrible PAC puke to which we’ve grown accustomed. 

The cool thing is, as it looks currently. The MJO is gearing up for a potential favorable run beyond all of this. Which means there's more potential for damage to the vortex in it's future. Beyond this stuff I'm showing now. 

[forkyfork]

 

[brooklynwx99]

twins

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

nyc got 1.4" from this pattern

89-90 a season I was thinking about....but that year the cold came early, and left early....

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Nibor said:

 

I'm enjoying where this fan fiction is going...

We had a large area of 30"+ in January 2016.  It's going to be really hard to top that.  And strong el ninos provide kind of juice to do that on a widespread basis (Feb 1983 and PD2 were two other cases where it happened.)

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We got shut out on snowfall with the deep -PNA from December 1st to 25th in 2010. But picked up 60” from 12-26 to 1-27 when the PNA became favorable. So the pattern didn’t improve until the retrogression cleaned up the -PNA out West. That was one of the strongest La Ninas on record and it took historic Greenland Blocking to overpower the Pacific. When we started  to see -5s showing up in the -AO a week before Christmas was the signal that the retrogression of the Greenland Block westward was underway.

Hostile Pacific no snow 12-1 to 12-25 plenty of winter cancel calls

 

Favorable Pacific 60”+ snow at places like Newark 12-26 to 1-27

 

 

What caused that historic block in 2010? Was it a holdover from what happened the previous winter?

 

[Brian5671]

some of these 95-96, 09-10, 10-11 analogs are thrown out way too often-alot of it is click bait

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes, the 09-10 blocking was a 600 year event as rare as Sandy’s track held over from the previous winter. So that’s why we haven’t seen a repeat of those two winters. Any comparisons to 2010 are very loose at best. Winters like 95-96, 09-10, and 10-11 are singular events that aren’t likely to repeat. 95-96 featured wall to wall snow and cold from November to April with 75-85” of snow across the area. 09-10 gave DC to Baltimore to Philly a similar all-time snowiest season of 75”+. 10-11 was our only 60”+ of snow in 33 days.

http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/glodech/PDFS/D'Arrigo_etal_2011.pdf

A similar combination of NAO‐ENSO phases was identified as the cause of record cold and snowy conditions during the 2009–2010 winter in Europe and eastern North America. 600‐year tree‐ ring reconstructions of NAO and ENSO indices reveal values in the 1783–1784 winter second only to their combined severity in 2009–2010. Data sources and model simulations support our hypothesis that a combined, negative NAO‐ENSO warm phase was the dominant cause of the anomalous winter of 1783–1784, and that these events likely resulted from natural variability unconnected to Laki.

These dynamical arguments, and NAO and Niño‐3 sea surface temperature (SST) indices, were used to conclude that these phenomena were largely responsible for anomalies of winter 2009–2010 (negative NAO conditions have persisted early in this winter (2010–2011), but with a La Niña).

Now the question is how much of a role climate change plays in these extreme blocks, since they seem to be migrating to different parts of the globe.  In 2014-15 we also had extreme blocking but it was in the North Pacific (if I remember correctly?) and if climate change plays a role in the extremity of these blocks will their return rate increase? Has it been already?  2017-18 was another example of extreme blocking, but much later in the season.

 

[SnoSki14]

Impressive that the ensembles nailed the blocking though. 

However it takes time for the right pieces to fall into place. Too many try to rush the pattern change.

[brooklynwx99]

29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

some of these 95-96, 09-10, 10-11 analogs are thrown out way too often-alot of it is click bait

2010-11 is valid here. the similarities to the late Dec 2010 pattern are uncanny and if this block does materialize in this way, there is certainly the potential for a high-end event during the second half of the month 

[EastonSN+]

+PNA forming at the end of the EPS run.

MJO getting into phase 8 at a higher amplitude may be helping here. Gets into 1 albeit very weak. Lag effect puts timing about right.

[EastonSN+]

It's hard not to get excited with both Forky and Brooklyn WX 99 getting amped. 

Hope this block has staying power.

[EastonSN+]

Just checked GEFS. In line with the EPS for the most part with ridging in the Rockies and cold anomalies in the east. 

As Brooklynwx99 states in the NE forum, shows the NAO link with a ridge in the plains, then retros it to the Rockies strengthening the trough in the east.

[EastonSN+]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We also have to remember that Pacific pattern changes often take longer than models initially forecast. The current 6-10 forecast still has the big -PNA trough out West during the first week of December. The model runs from a week ago showed faster improvement beyond day 10. So the old saying is that a day 11-15 forecast has to survive until the 6-10 to be believable.That isn’t to say that the Pacific may eventually shape up. Just that the models are probably rushing things. 

New 180 hr forecast for December 5th

 

 

Old 348 hr forecast for December 5h

 

What I like is the ensembles are showing exactly what you had alluded to yesterday w/r/t 2010. The PAC is cleaned up as the block moves west.

[brooklynwx99]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's hard not to get excited with both Forky and Brooklyn WX 99 getting amped. 

Hope this block has staying power.

i mean, it's hard not to get excited when you have a block like that. retrograding and decaying -NAO blocks are how we get our largest storms:

[brooklynwx99]

the GEFS is also very similar to the period before Feb 2021 as well as much of Mar 2018. these blocks have historically produced high-end events... much of what you're hearing on social media or on forums really isn't hype with a pattern like this. the potential is just that high

[EastonSN+]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, it's hard not to get excited when you have a block like that. retrograding and decaying -NAO blocks are how we get our largest storms:

Yeah - hope it lasts as long as March 2018, 2010/11 however as Bluewave pointed out, 10/11 was part of a historic period.

[Brian5671]

41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2010-11 is valid here. the similarities to the late Dec 2010 pattern are uncanny and if this block does materialize in this way, there is certainly the potential for a high-end event during the second half of the month 

Totally get it and thank you for your great posts here of late-agree it does look similar.  I meant more in a general sense as we've moved through the last few winters I see these analogs posted alot on twitter etc....

[EasternLI]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

2010-11 is valid here. the similarities to the late Dec 2010 pattern are uncanny and if this block does materialize in this way, there is certainly the potential for a high-end event during the second half of the month 

I actually like the look this year better, should it continue to stay similar. With that sea of Okhotsk low staying in much closer proximity to Alaska instead of further west like 2010 did. Keeping it more like we're seeing currently, would increase the chance of strat shenanigans at some point. More so than the other look, as nice as it is. That would be for longer term prospects, of course. Fingers crossed.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

I would say yes since these type of extreme blocking events have become much more common since 2010. But they never reoccur in exactly the same locations. There is always some slight variation from year to year and season to season. But our current batch of climate models are still to primitive to show exactly how the warmer climate is influencing these patterns specifically. 

How well can they predict where the extreme blocking will show up from year to year? I'm guessing not well?