MJO812 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:28 PM, Allsnow said: Don’t like all those deep blues off the west coast on the ensembles Expand The PNA was never supposed to be great. We are relying on blocking going forward . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 That's a strong -NAO!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:41 PM, EasternLI said: That's a strong -NAO!! Expand Yes, but cold looks to be dumping into the west coast. I don’t think that’s even a snow pattern for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:41 PM, EasternLI said: That's a strong -NAO!! Expand What's causing this? Some typhoon recurvature? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:40 PM, brooklynwx99 said: idk the cold might dump into the west at the very beginning, but this is a loaded setup. about as good as it gets Expand I think people need to be patient. They can't expect something right away. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Ends here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:43 PM, Allsnow said: Yes, but cold looks to be dumping into the west coast. I don’t think that’s even a snow pattern for us Expand I agree initially. I think we just need to let the pattern evolve. Our chances will come and they usually do when the blocking starts to break down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:40 PM, brooklynwx99 said: idk the cold might dump into the west at the very beginning, but this is a loaded setup. about as good as it gets Expand Agree, a window between the 7th-10th but then we go back to a -pna look with deep Blues off the west coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Everywhere is cold after the 8th verbatim. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:43 PM, Allsnow said: Yes, but cold looks to be dumping into the west coast. I don’t think that’s even a snow pattern for us Expand Well I'm not looking for snow quite yet. Let's get a good foundation set first. Maybe after the 10th or so? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 it’s worth noting that there’s actually a -PNA in place before NYC’s 18”+ storms. makes sense, as that’s how you’d get a big shortwave to traverse the country so don’t worry if there’s a western a trough if the blocking is that strong 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:45 PM, Allsnow said: Agree, a window between the 7th-10th but then we go back to a -pna look with deep Blues off the west coast Expand Why can't we snow with an RNA? It worked in 2010. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:46 PM, EasternLI said: Everywhere is cold after the 8th verbatim. Expand Looks lik 8th-12th and then it flips? But you need flips to get big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:59 PM, EasternLI said: Well I'm not looking for snow quite yet. Let's get a good foundation set first. Maybe after the 10th or so? Expand The 10th is pushing it imo. Might take a bit longer but you have the right idea about laying the foundation and having some patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:03 PM, brooklynwx99 said: it’s worth noting that there’s actually a -PNA in place before NYC’s 18”+ storms. makes sense, as that’s how you’d get a big shortwave to traverse the country so don’t worry if there’s a western a trough if the blocking is that strong Expand Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:03 PM, brooklynwx99 said: it’s worth noting that there’s actually a -PNA in place before NYC’s 18”+ storms. makes sense, as that’s how you’d get a big shortwave to traverse the country so don’t worry if there’s a western a trough if the blocking is that strong Expand I don't have the EPS so not seeing this RNA that Allsnow is referencing. Is it so negative that we get last year's shredded affect? I thought we WANTED an RNA when blocking is intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:04 PM, LibertyBell said: Looks lik 8th-12th and then it flips? But you need flips to get big storms. Expand It flips to a positive NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:05 PM, Rjay said: The 10th is pushing it imo. Might take a bit longer but you have the right idea about laying the foundation and having some patience. Expand Oh I meant just start looking at things around then. Not looking for anything to start then lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 7:28 PM, Allsnow said: Don’t like all those deep blues off the west coast on the ensembles Expand On 11/27/2022 at 7:37 PM, EastonSN+ said: Had same thing in 2010, so we can overcome with the right track and strength. Expand 95–96 too IIRC. Enough ATL side blocking can offset a crappy PAC. Here is to hoping! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 how can you see that block and not get a little excited 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:07 PM, EastonSN+ said: It flips to a positive NAO? Expand No, but EasternLI posted that it 'ends here' and that image was dated the 12th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:09 PM, Eduardo said: 95–96 too IIRC. Enough ATL side blocking can offset a crappy PAC. Here is to hoping! Expand Just keep expectations a little tempered because both 95-96 and 10-11 were la ninas after el ninos. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:09 PM, forkyfork said: how can you see that block and not get a little excited Expand Lol it’s a funny psychological phenomenon. We’ve become so accustomed to disappointment these past few years that we keep expectations tempered as some sort of defense mechanism. Forky honkage usually portends good things though. :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:12 PM, LibertyBell said: Just keep expectations a little tempered because both 95-96 and 10-11 were la ninas after el ninos. Expand Yeah I’m def not saying we should be thinking about a redux. Just making the broader point (which @brooklynwx99 made much better) that a -PNA can work with a solid ATL-side block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 a west coast ridge and we would be cold and dry 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/15/2022 at 2:54 PM, Nibor said: I’ll gladly take the blocking. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:17 PM, Eduardo said: Yeah I’m def not saying we should be thinking about a redux. Just making the broader point (which @brooklynwx99 made much better) that a -PNA can work with a solid ATL-side block. Expand it's necessary!!!! 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 On 11/27/2022 at 8:17 PM, forkyfork said: it's necessary!!!! Expand 1966-67 had this-- lots of snow on both coasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 nyc got 1.4" from this pattern 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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