I really like this on long term models, I think we will be in a cold/snowy pattern in 20-25 days~Christmas/before

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's been a long time since 45N has been consistently below normal. This has shown up several consecutive models runs now. 

  (+4 more model runs, going back to yesterday)

We have been, since 2019, reversing the Pacific and Atlantic at -0.70 correlation(record)

I think the cold showing up in western Europe in +15-16D will translate to a favorable Pacific (+PNA(not -NAO)) in 20 days. 

We have had a -NAO on Christmas +4 days every year since 2017, and 7/8 years since 2014. This has been an anomaly in the midst of a very +NAO time. 

Laws of waves and averages gives us a 80% chance of having NAO negative Dec 21-28 this year. This means that with a favorable Pacific, the Atlantic will be at least not be against us. 

(I predict a 4-8" storm in the  MA (average for Dec is 3") and a general snowy/cold time ~Dec 15-29/30.) [PNA may move more negative around Christmas when the NAO tendency dips negative]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Also, Russia has been very cold (anomaly) since the descent into cold season. Ice accretion was accelerant(vs normal) every day then anomalous High pressure over snowcover, after. I've just been watching this, and it's been impressive anomaly. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

-PNA(now) will deevolve

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still showing up.

+PNA Dec 15-28:

+2020

2005

2004

2000* La Nina

1995* La Nina

1986

1985

1980

1969

1963

1960

1958

1956

minus 2021

-2016

-2012

-2008

-2007

-1992* El Nino

-1984

-1978

-1971

-1970

-1965* El Nino

-1959

-1957* El Nino

-1951

-1949

-1948

[Rjay]

Go back to your old account Chuck. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Go back to your old account Chuck. 

Locked. I was posting too much consecutively, thirsting for discussion. I just get excited.

The last time we had a -AO like what's being advertised on models Dec 7-13 is 2009:

 

Here are the broader analogs:

My 45N theorum

This is even before I hypothesize we transition into +PNA (or much less -pna)  Dec 15

Anyway, then 1989 is the next best analog. That had a much different outcome thereafter, 35 years ago. (87, 85, 83, 81 -ao matches.. let's see what happens)

 

2016, 2017 were liter -AO matches Dec 7-13, and these went heavy -PNA Jan/Feb

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Is AfewUniversesbelownormal still active?

Can other people see these posts?

[ORH_wxman]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Is AfewUniversesbelownormal still active?

Can other people see these posts?

Yes we can see the posts.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes we can see the posts.

You probably aren't aware but people have only talked to me on here, after someone in the physical interacts with me, enters building, etc. fwiw. Thanks

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Love it.. this is better than the -NAO in my opinion (black arrow)

(cold western Europe), is actualy a higher SD than -NAO 

(These 15D-16D models correlate at 0.80.)

[Cold Miser]

Spaghetti...

...We need more long range spaghetti models. 

Thanks in advance.

[Whineminster]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Do you like this, Pacific-Atlantic ridges hook up

20 analogs

Dec 20.. overall signal randomizes a lot

Dec 25

+PNA

Dec 30

There's my +PNA

Pattern change into January

[Stormchaserchuck1]

NAO has been negative on Christmas last 7/8 years by +100dm> , while the Dec-Mar average NAO for the period is -60dm-median-average. (since 2013/4)

You can throw out this +NAO signal

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Look how wet the Pacific/STJ is at the end of this run. 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think we will probably do this here.. 1 year later (reverses)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

initial point actually fell apart somewhat.. as the -NAO (high pressure) dominates

theory was >1.5x cold-sustained/-NAO condition in Europe/w. Atlantic was a difference maker 45N, but N. Atlantic high pressure completely filled in. I still think we will +PNA Dec19-29. Same idea pushed back a few days..

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Analogs for Dec 21-29 +PNA (snow) are: 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995, 1975, 1973, 1963*, 1952, 1950.

[Stormchaserchuck1]