December 2022 temperature forecast contest and winter snowfall contest

Roger Smith · November 26, 2022

Well the contest is not quite settled despite the latest provisionals adding a bit to the lead of RodneyS, and it looks like at least a three-person race with perhaps the chase pack with an outside chance, it would take a forecast well separated from those of the leaders to get much of a jump on them. You can easily figure this out, I suppose, but if you go consistently 1 F deg warmer or colder at various stations and you're correct in your trend, you can pick up 180 points in total, so if you were let's say 540 behind you would need to be correct about a 3 F differential (and hope all three leaders had similar forecasts to pass them all). I am a bit more than 900 behind so it doesn't matter what I do this month.

I have posted provisional scoring for November and annual contests, and will try to update those to more accurate estimates on the 29th so if you want to know where you stand, have a look on the 30th and see if that changed from the estimates that are posted now.

So as always, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations (relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(deadline Thursday Dec 1st, 06z) _ late penalties apply after that.

Also we'll see if there's interest in predicting winter snowfall for these nine locations (three replace warm weather locations above)

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 1.1 ___ 2.5 ___ 36.9 ____10.9 __ 0.9 __ 3.0

(amounts so far to Nov 30) ...

The above amounts should be included in your forecasts, plus what you foresee after you post to end of the winter snowfall season. I realize BUF has had a lot already but that really doesn't change the challenge of predicting the rest of the winter there. Last time I looked DEN had seen about 10 inches in November and the other locations are either at smaller amounts or yet to start their seasons. There won't be much of a deadline on this snowfall contest but try to get your entry in by 5th of December at latest so I can make up the table.

Also a belated happy Thanksgiving. We do that in early October up here so it's just Black Friday for us (and that's new around here too). And Advent. Happy holidays in general.

(Note, anyone is welcome to enter either of these, and you don't have to submit a temperature forecast entry to enter the snowfall contest)

(I will be asking you who are regular participants how you feel about continuing on with the contest in 2023 -- I am willing to keep doing what I do now for at least one more year, eventually I will age out of this weather forum entirely though, if the powers that be tolerate my presence that much longer)

Scotty Lightning · November 29, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.0

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

16" 23" 33" 43" 35" 45" 55" 5" 81"

Rjay · November 30, 2022

DCA: -1.5

NYC: -1.5

BOS: -1.5

ORD: -2.5

ATL: 0.0

IAH: +1.0

DEN: 0.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: -2.0

wxallannj · November 30, 2022

DCA: -0.8

NYC: -1.0

BOS: -1.2

ORD: -0.5

ATL: +1.0

IAH: +2.0

DEN: +0.5

PHX: +1.0

SEA: -1.5

donsutherland1 · November 30, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.8 -1.0 -0.8 -4.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.8 -4.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

10.0 36.0 55.0 45.8 52.5 95.0 44.0 7.0 100.0

hudsonvalley21 · November 30, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.4 -1.3 -1.2 -2.1 1.1 1.7 0.3 0.5 -2.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

13.2 29.3 46.2 42.8 44.0 90.0 48.7. 8.2 96.3

RodneyS · November 30, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.1 -0.2 0.2 -1.3 -0.3 2.4 1.4 0.4 -2.8

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

7.4 33.0 50.0 44.0 48.0 93.0 46.0 7.0 98.0

wxdude64 · November 30, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9 -1.6 -1.1 -3.6 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.1 -4.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

19.5 40.0 58.5 42.8 50.5 101.0 41.6 8.7 104.0

Roger Smith · November 30, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.9 -0.6 -0.1 -3.2 -0.4 +1.0 -4.5 -3.3 -4.8

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

22.2 44.4 55.5 55.5 66.6 133.0 52.0 15.9 88.8

bkviking · November 30, 2022

DCA: -1.6

NYC: -1.5

BOS: -1.3

ORD: -1.3

ATL: +0.8

IAH: +0.8

DEN: -0.8

PHX: +1.0

SEA: -0.3

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

25”—52”—60”—38”—50”—90”—60”—18”—90”

George001 · December 1, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9 -2.3 -2.5 -3.1 +.8 +1.3 -5 -3.8 -4.6

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

12.0 62.0 105.0 65.0 70.0 140.0 60.0 8.0 130.0

so_whats_happening · December 1, 2022

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1 -1.2 -1.5 -1.4 +1 +1.8 -1.4 +1.2 0

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

18 38 64 45 38 110 42 11 84

Little late but wanted to do more of the snowfall contest than anything

Tom · December 1, 2022

DCA: -1.8

NYC: -1.9

BOS: -1.5

ORD: -2.1

ATL: -0.5

IAH: +0.2

DEN: -1.1

PHX: +0.6

SEA: +0.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

14.2 __ 41.1 __ 49.6 _____ 53.9 ___ 49.9 ___ 93.7 ____79.2 __ 6.7 __ 81.2

Roger Smith · December 3, 2022

Table of forecasts for December 2022

FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0

Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0

hudsonvalley21 ________ -0.4 __-1.3 __-1.2 __ -2.1 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___+0.3 _+0.5 _-2.2

DonSutherland1 _______ -0.8 __-1.0 __-0.8 __ -4.3 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.8 _-4.2

wxallannj ______________ -0.8 __-1.0 __-1.2 ___-0.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _-1.5

Roger Smith ___________ -0.9 __-0.6 __-0.1 __-3.2 __-0.4 _+1.0 ___-4.5 _-3.3 _-4.8

so_whats_happening __ -1.0 __-1.2 __-1.5 ___-1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ -1.4 _+1.2 __ 0.0

Consensus _____________-1.0 _ -1.2 __ -1.1 ___ -2.1 _ +1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _-2.1

RodneyS _______________ -1.1 __-0.2 __+0.2 __-1.3 __-0.3 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+0.4 _-2.8

RJay ___________________ -1.5 __-1.5 __-1.5 __ -2.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _-2.0

BKViking _______________-1.6 __-1.5 __-1.3 ___-1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ -0.8 _+1.0 _-0.3

Tom ____ (-1%) _________-1.8 __-1.9 __-1.5 __ -2.1 __ -0.5 _ +0.2 ___ -1.1 _+0.6 _+0.1

wxdude64 _____________-1.9 __-1.6 __-1.1 ___-3.6 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ -4.2

George001 ____________-1.9 _ -2.3 __-2.5 __ -3.1 __+0.8 _+1.3 ___ -5.0 _-3.8 _-4.6

__________________________________________

Forecasts are color coded for warmest and coldest. Normal is colder than all forecasters for IAH.

Extreme forecasts and best forecasts will be determined and awarded both "all in" and among annual forecasters as is the usual practice late in the year.

Welcome to George001, and good luck everybody.

Roger Smith · December 6, 2022

Last call for edits or new posts on the snowfall contest. Table to be prepared Wed 7th, let's say 12z 7th deadline. Scotty Lightning if you look in, clarify BUF (and other forecasts) as the already-fallen amounts are to be counted in the forecasts so you're basically looking at a zero snowfall winter for BUF now to end. I will try a PM but I think last time I wanted to contact you, your box wasn't taking messages. (later edit _ SL confirmed by p.m. that he would accept the adjustments).

Rjay · December 6, 2022

On 11/29/2022 at 7:52 PM, Rjay said:

DCA: -1.5

NYC: -1.5

BOS: -1.5

ORD: -2.5

ATL: 0.0

IAH: +1.0

DEN: 0.0

PHX: +1.0

SEA: -2.0

DCA 20

NYC 50

BOS 65

ORD 31

DTW 27

BUF 86

DEN 50

SEA 15

BTV 80

Roger Smith · December 7, 2022

Table of forecasts for 2022-23 winter snowfall contest

* (in table)

I made an executive decision for Scotty Lightning who only checks in occasionally and may not have seen my p.m., have added his forecasts to values in the Nov 30th post as his BUF prediction (45") was almost the same as what had already fallen (37") (a lot of snowfall contests run Dec 1 to Mar 31 so that might be what he was thinking -- it would be extraordinary if BUF had only 8" of snow in meteorological winter). I also added the rather small values that had already fallen at some other locations. Also wxallannj you're welcome to post a forecast, if it arrives soon I will include it, there isn't that much happening yet. Let's say deadline is whenever snow starts falling in any significant quantity. Forecasts are listed in descending order of DCA predictions. Consensus is median value. (later) Scotty eventually confirmed that he wanted to add the amounts already measured before contest deadline.

Highest station forecasts are in bold type and lowest are underlined.

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

BKViking ________________________ 25.0 _52.0 _ 60.0 __ 38.0 _50.0 _90.0 __ 60.0 _18.0_ 90.0

Roger Smith _____________________22.2 _44.4 _ 55.5 __ 55.5 _66.6_133.0 __ 52.0 _15.9 _ 88.8

RJay _____________________________20.0 _50.0 _ 65.0 __ 31.0 _27.0 _ 86.0 __ 50.0 _15.0 _ 80.0

wxdude64 _______________________19.5 _40.0 _ 58.5 __ 42.8 _50.5 _101.0 __ 41.6 _ 8.7 _ 104.0

so_whats_happening ____________ 18.0 _38.0 _ 64.0 __ 45.0 _380_ 110.0 __ 42.0 _11.0 _ 84.0

Scotty Lightning*_________________16.0 _23.0 _ 33.0 __ 44.1 _37.5 _ 81.9 __ 65.9 _ 5.9 _ 84.0

___ Consensus ___________________16.0 _40.0 _ 55.5 __ 44.1 _49.9 _ 93.7 __ 50.0 _ 8.2 _ 90.0

Tom _____________________________ 14.2 _ 41.1 _ 49.6 __ 53.9 _49.9 _ 93.7 __79.2 _ 6.7 _ 81.2

hudsonvalley21 __________________13.2 _ 29.3 _ 46.2 __ 42.8 _44.0 _90.0 __ 48.7 _ 8.2 _ 96.3

George001 _______________________12.0 _62.0_105.0__ 65.0 _70.0_140.0__60.0 _ 8.0_ 130.0

DonSutherland1 __________________10.0 _36.0 _ 55.0 __ 45.8 _52.5 _ 95.0 __ 44.0 _ 7.0_ 100.0

RodneyS _________________________ 7.4 _ 33.0 _ 50.0 __ 44.0 _48.0 _ 93.0 __ 46.0 _ 7.0 _ 98.0

actual snowfall to Dec 26, 2022 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 ___4.3 __ 7.5 __100.0 ___16.8 _ 5.8 _ 17.4

(DCA and NYC have both had traces)

.

Roger Smith · December 12, 2022

First look at anomalies and projections ...

____________________________DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

(11th) ____ (anom 10d) ____+0.8 _+2.5 _+4.0 __+3.0 _+6.7_+12.2___+4.2 _+1.3 _-4.7

(21st) ____ (anom 20d) ____-0.5 _-0.2 _+1.7 __ +1.3 _+2.9 _+6.4 ___+0.1 _ -1.6 _-4.9

(11th) ____ (p anom 20d) __ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __+0.5 _+3.0_ +7.0 ___ +1.5 _ 0.0 _ -2.5

(11th) ____ (p anom 27d)__+0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.5 _+2.0 _+5.0 ___+1.5 _ 0.0 _ -1.0

(21st) ____ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 _-0.8 __0.0 ___-1.0 _+1.5 _ +4.0 ___ -1.0 _-1.5 _-3.0

(28th) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.5 _-1.0 __+1.0___-2.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ___-1.5 _-0.5 _-3.5

( 1st Jan) _ anomalies ____ -1.6 _-0.6 _ +1.6 ___-1.4 _ +0.2 _+1.7 ___-1.9 _-0.3 _-3.2

_______

(11th) _ After a rather mild start in the east, central regions, colder at times to 20th, bringing anomalies closer to normal. The deep cold in the Pac NW region may gradually flip to a somewhat milder pattern. The projections 21st to 27th are mainly based on persistence of trends 11th-20th.

(21st) _ Much colder for several days in central and eastern locations, but a milder trend after 26th may partially offset the changes. Turning milder in the Pac NW so the current anomalies will be shaved down a bit.

(28th) _ Tweaked the projections based on latest actual anomalies and guidance.

( 1st Jan _ all scoring updated )

Roger Smith · December 24, 2022

I won't calculate any preliminary scores, will leave the outcome hanging in suspense until we get to the actual end of the month numbers, partly because I think the outcome lies perhaps within the margin of error. RodneyS had a bit of a lead on DonS and wxdude64 going in, but their forecasts are different enough that either Don or wxdude64 could in theory edge past RodneyS at the final showdown. Then I looked further down the annual scoring table, Tom has an outside chance of catching some of the three leaders but would need to max out on all differentials he's holding (a colder ATL, IAH and a milder SEA for example).

My plan is to go ahead with a contest for 2023 and see how it goes. Any ideas about expanding our field welcome up to and including a change in management. It might just be that more Am Wx forum members would participate even if nothing else changes but the brand name, but if anyone thinks they would like to give that a go, I would be quite glad to co-operate in that venture. And certainly any new contest manager should feel free to change anything about the format. It is what it is, and I am also happy enough to continue on, it's a small but enthusiastic and contest-loyal group we have so it's also fine to keep going as is. Whatever, have a great holiday and check in around January 1-2 to see what happened. There will be the usual January relaxed late penalty call for forecasts around 27th of December.

wxdude64 · December 24, 2022

You do an awesome job and I appreciate the time you put into this Roger!

RodneyS · December 26, 2022

I agree, and I think the main problem is that many people don't have the time to devote to a monthly contest. However, it's a lot of fun for those of us who are able to set aside the time each month.

Roger Smith · December 26, 2022

Thanks, I suppose when we went from the three eastern locations to the larger grid, it was a larger commitment of time and perhaps that's the main or even only reason why we've seen the numbers decline. Anyway, it's all good if the current participants wish to continue.

hudsonvalley21 · December 26, 2022

11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Thanks, I suppose when we went from the three eastern locations to the larger grid, it was a larger commitment of time and perhaps that's the main or even only reason why we've seen the numbers decline. Anyway, it's all good if the current participants wish to continue.

Thanks Rodger for your time and efforts. I’d love to continue. :thumbsup:

so_whats_happening · December 28, 2022

On 12/24/2022 at 3:35 AM, Roger Smith said:

I won't calculate any preliminary scores, will leave the outcome hanging in suspense until we get to the actual end of the month numbers, partly because I think the outcome lies perhaps within the margin of error. RodneyS had a bit of a lead on DonS and wxdude64 going in, but their forecasts are different enough that either Don or wxdude64 could in theory edge past RodneyS at the final showdown. Then I looked further down the annual scoring table, Tom has an outside chance of catching some of the three leaders but would need to max out on all differentials he's holding (a colder ATL, IAH and a milder SEA for example).

My plan is to go ahead with a contest for 2023 and see how it goes. Any ideas about expanding our field welcome up to and including a change in management. It might just be that more Am Wx forum members would participate even if nothing else changes but the brand name, but if anyone thinks they would like to give that a go, I would be quite glad to co-operate in that venture. And certainly any new contest manager should feel free to change anything about the format. It is what it is, and I am also happy enough to continue on, it's a small but enthusiastic and contest-loyal group we have so it's also fine to keep going as is. Whatever, have a great holiday and check in around January 1-2 to see what happened. There will be the usual January relaxed late penalty call for forecasts around 27th of December.

I and am sure many others on here appreciate the commitment you have to doing this every month and even messaging us personally for monthly temp submissions (this is appreciated as I at least get an email that reminds me). I enjoy this as a test of skills and just some fun. I will respect whatever decision you make for the upcoming year but would love to see this contest continue. If you need help from time to time don't be afraid to ask. I and am sure many others would happily step in from time to time if need be to give you a break if that would be much easier on you. I can ask in another forum I am in if they would like to join, many of which are just enthusiasts but like to dabble in long range discussion so maybe a little friendly competition?

I can see how the commitment to keeping a regular time schedule with forecasts can be very difficult have had some issues myself. This is what I think discourages people from joining more often. I hate to give up the idea of this being a contest though but that probably discourages those who loosely would play.

Roger Smith · December 29, 2022

Thanks, any help in publicizing the contest is welcome but we certainly tried that on a large scale a few years ago with the format of an inter-forum challenge but I think most of the sub-forums only managed to produce one or two entrants and eventually they were blown away by both the skill and numbers of the NYC and MA forums. I was basically it west of the Mississippi. New England and Great Lakes forums would probably be more interested in just local forecast challenges (from what I've seen). If it were not for the NYC turnout this contest likely would have gone extinct a while ago. ... as to help with the actual work involved, I am fine with that, you would be amazed and perhaps depressed if you saw how fast I can type this line DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (under ten seconds). Also the word FORECASTER I can do without looking down.

Roger Smith · December 29, 2022

Scoring for December 2022

* scores for Tom include 1 pt late penalty

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ____ TOTAL

__ anomalies __________ -1.5 _-0.6 __+1.6 __ __ __-1.4 __+0.2 _+1.7 ____ ___ ____ -1.9 _-0.3 _-3.2 ____

RodneyS _______________ 90 __ 92 __ 72 __ 254 __ 98 __ 90 __ 86 __ 274 _ 528 __ 34 __ 86 __ 92 __212 ____ 740

___ Consensus __________88 __ 88 __ 46 __ 222 __ 86 __ 84 __ 96 __ 266 _ 488 __ 58 __ 76 __ 78 __ 212 ____ 700

hudsonvalley21 ________ 76 __ 86 __ 44 __ 206 __ 86 __ 82 __100__ 268_ 474 __ 56 __ 84 __ 80 __ 220 ____ 694

so_whats_happening __ 88 __ 88 __ 38 __ 214 __100__ 84 __ 98 __ 282 _ 496 __90 __ 70 __ 36 __ 196 ____ 692

RJay ___________________ 98 __ 82 __ 38 __ 218 __ 78 __ 96 __ 86 __ 260 _ 478 __ 62 __ 74 __ 76 __ 212 ____ 690

BKViking _______________100__ 82 __ 42 __ 224 __ 98 __ 88 __ 82 __ 268 _ 492 __ 78 __ 74 __ 42 __ 194 ____ 686

wxallannj ______________ 84 __ 92 __ 44 __ 220 __ 82 __ 84 __ 94 __ 260 _ 480 __ 52 __ 74 __ 66 __ 192 ____ 672

DonSutherland1 ________84 __ 92 __ 52 __ 228 __ 42 __ 88 __ 86 __ 216 _ 444 __ 52 __ 78 __ 80 __ 210 ____ 654

___ Normal _____________ 68 __ 88 __ 68 __ 224 __ 72 __ 96 __ 66 __ 234_ 458 __ 62 __ 94 __ 36 __ 192 ____ 650

Roger Smith ___________ 86 __100 __66 __ 252 __ 64 __ 88 __ 86 __ 238_ 490 __ 48 __ 40 __ 68 __ 156 ____ 646

wxdude64 _____________ 90 __ 80 __ 46 __ 216 __ 56 __ 82 __100__ 238 _ 454 __ 40 __ 72 __ 80 __ 192 ____ 646

Tom ____ (-1%) _________ 97*__ 73*__ 38 __ 208 __ 85*__85*__69*__239 _ 447 __ 83*__ 81*__ 34 __ 198 ____ 645

George001 ____________ 90 __ 66 __ 18 ___ 196 __ 66 __ 88 __ 92 __ 246 _ 442 __ 38 __ 30 __ 72 __ 142 ____ 584

Scotty Lightning _______ 48 __ 68 __ 88 __ 204 __ 52 __ 64 __ 94 __ 210 _ 414 __ 42 __ 64 __ 16 __ 122 ____ 536

__________________________________________

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

BOS (+1.0) is a win for Scotty Lightning (+1.0) with highest forecast.

DEN (-1.9) is a loss for Roger Smith (-4.5) within the regular forecast group, and also a loss for George001 (-5.0), with the win going to so_whats_happening (-1.4).

PHX (-0.3) is also a loss for Roger Smith and George001 with the win going to RodneyS (+0.4) and Normal (0.0).

___________________________

=======================

(actual forecasts)