ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2022 Share Posted November 22, 2022 Below is my attempt at a Winter Forecast for Chester County PA. I identified 12 analog years that had similar average temperature departures for October (~2 degrees below normal) and November (~2 degrees above normal). Ten (10) of the twelve (12) featured below normal temperatures - with 8 of the 12 years having above normal snowfall. The coldest analog season was 1977-78, the snowiest was the winter of 2009-10 when we were buried under 86.7" of snow. The warmest was 1948-49, the least snowiest 1930-31. Overall, I predict below normal temperatures for December, January and February, but above normal March temperatures. Seasonal snowfall will be above average at 47" vs our 36" of average snowfall featuring above average snowfall for all winter months with the exception of March Below is the chart with the actual readings for the analog years. Let me know your thoughts and if any questions let me know. Wish me luck and get those snowblowers ready!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 22, 2022 Author Share Posted November 22, 2022 White Christmas anyone? What can go wrong with only 3 weeks to go?? 2009 redux - Book it!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 Below normal snowfall, above normal temps. but seriously that’s what I think. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Below normal snowfall, above normal temps. but seriously that’s what I think. Im going opposite.....(KDYL locale) AN snowfall BN temps. At least one storm 10"+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 When is the last time this region had below normal Dec,Jan, and Feb? Has it ever happened in a La Nina winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted November 23, 2022 Share Posted November 23, 2022 No analysis here, just throwing spaghetti at the wall… Above average temps, above average snowfall, March will rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 No analogs no science guestimate supreme December -1F 5" January +1F 13" February +2F 10" March +4F 2" 30" local season normal 31" We are past due to see snow in the Dec 21-31st Holiday window it finally happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 fwiw December 1-7 no snow avg temps December 8-17 4-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 8-24 3-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 25-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps January 1-15 6-10 inches of snow below avg temps January 15-31 4-8 inches of snow avg temps February 1-15 8+ inches of snow below avg temps Februray 15-28 6-8 in of snow avg temps March 1-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps at least 3 storms of 8+ inches with at least one week or more of solid single digit lows or colder in early January. Total snowfall 46 inches for the LV. Snow cover 25 + days 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 We just threw down for a new Ego snow blower since my wife really likes using their lawnmower, and since my Craftsman snow blower is close to 30 years old and held together with literal zip ties and baling twine. (She wants to be able to use it in case I'm traveling, plus we already have the Ego mower and leaf blower so we're already invested in the battery ecosystem. But I digress.) Based on absolutely nothing at all, here's what I'm thinking: So... Freak snow end of Nov, 3" that melts before we have a chance to use the new machine. December... cold rain. January... Freakishly cold, mere dustings of snow throughout. February... Big 2009/2010 energy, two 12"+ storms, maybe even back to back. March... Solid 8-incher right around the 8th. April... A dusting at the beginning of the month, then 70's, then cold towards the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 As captured in Media Delaware County: December +1.5F 1" monthly total January +1F 7" monthly total February -1.5F 11" monthly total March +2F 2" monthly total Year Total 21" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 I'm predicting no snow this winter at my current location... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 24, 2022 Author Share Posted November 24, 2022 18 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im going opposite.....(KDYL locale) AN snowfall BN temps. At least one storm 10"+ If Steve agrees with me....it must be correct - right?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted November 24, 2022 Share Posted November 24, 2022 Meh. I 'm still going with a repeat of last year. We'll be lucky to get one SECS storm. Apps runners will give the area a Couple of nickel and dime messes in January/February and that's about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 26, 2022 Author Share Posted November 26, 2022 On 11/23/2022 at 5:14 PM, RedSky said: When is the last time this region had below normal Dec,Jan, and Feb? Has it ever happened in a La Nina winter? Even outside of a La Nina winter - it has not happened that often - I will have to go back and check on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 26, 2022 Author Share Posted November 26, 2022 On 11/23/2022 at 9:55 PM, Albedoman said: fwiw December 1-7 no snow avg temps December 8-17 4-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 8-24 3-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 25-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps January 1-15 6-10 inches of snow below avg temps January 15-31 4-8 inches of snow avg temps February 1-15 8+ inches of snow below avg temps Februray 15-28 6-8 in of snow avg temps March 1-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps at least 3 storms of 8+ inches with at least one week or more of solid single digit lows or colder in early January. Total snowfall 46 inches for the LV. Snow cover 25 + days We have the same total snowfall forecast....I am smelling consensus!! LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 26, 2022 Author Share Posted November 26, 2022 So I went back and checked on records for 134 winter seasons here in Chester County back to the winter of 1888-89. Only 30 times or 22.4% of seasons do we see a below normal December - January - February. Across the last 13 decades we have been very consistent with no significant changes in number of such winters by decade. 1890's (2) / 1900's (3) / 1910's (2) / 1920's (3) / 1930's (2) / 1940's (2) / 1950's (2) / 1960's (3) / 1970's (3) / 1980's (2) / 1990's (2) / 2000's (2) / 2010's (2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 11/23/2022 at 9:55 PM, Albedoman said: fwiw December 1-7 no snow avg temps December 8-17 4-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 8-24 3-6 inches of snow below normal temps December 25-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps January 1-15 6-10 inches of snow below avg temps January 15-31 4-8 inches of snow avg temps February 1-15 8+ inches of snow below avg temps Februray 15-28 6-8 in of snow avg temps March 1-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps at least 3 storms of 8+ inches with at least one week or more of solid single digit lows or colder in early January. Total snowfall 46 inches for the LV. Snow cover 25 + days I have a typo error third line should have been Dec 18-24. Regardless, I had 7-12 in before Christmas. The Euro and GEM are leaning in my direction tonight - thats good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 On 11/24/2022 at 9:56 AM, Voyager said: I'm predicting no snow this winter at my current location... Probably better for your health. No staying up late for model runs. No stressing out on the rain/snow line. (33F/rain) No shoveling. (Heart/Back) No depression when the storm decides to go out to sea. No mental/hallucination issues (seeing flakes falling through the window when they're not) No wasted time tracking a storm 10 days out and end up with zilch. No high heating bills. No salt/brine to eat brake lines/undercarriage of car. No jackknifing truck. And finally you don't have to deal with relentless weenies... All that aside, it's worth it once it starts falling. 40F/sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Probably better for your health. No staying up late for model runs. No stressing out on the rain/snow line. (33F/rain) No shoveling. (Heart/Back) No depression when the storm decides to go out to sea. No mental/hallucination issues (seeing flakes falling through the window when they're not) No wasted time tracking a storm 10 days out and end up with zilch. No high heating bills. No salt/brine to eat brake lines/undercarriage of car. No jackknifing truck. And finally you don't have to deal with relentless weenies... All that aside, it's worth it once it starts falling. 40F/sunny Truer words were never spoken! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Probably better for your health. No staying up late for model runs. No stressing out on the rain/snow line. (33F/rain) No shoveling. (Heart/Back) No depression when the storm decides to go out to sea. No mental/hallucination issues (seeing flakes falling through the window when they're not) No wasted time tracking a storm 10 days out and end up with zilch. No high heating bills. No salt/brine to eat brake lines/undercarriage of car. No jackknifing truck. And finally you don't have to deal with relentless weenies... All that aside, it's worth it once it starts falling. 40F/sunny People who live in the snow belt regions will never understand how much we mid-Atlantic weenies suffer for our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 10, 2022 Share Posted December 10, 2022 1 hour ago, JTA66 said: People who live in the snow belt regions will never understand how much we mid-Atlantic weenies suffer for our snow. Throughout the years decades I've put my body through stress/sleep deprived hell over white things falling from the sky...a line of midnight thunder storms as well. If I tell my doctor this is why I have trouble sleeping he'll look at me like I have 3 eyes and write me a prescription for Xanax. I don't dare mention imaginary snowflakes falling... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 On 11/24/2022 at 10:49 AM, Mikeymac5306 said: Meh. I 'm still going with a repeat of last year. We'll be lucky to get one SECS storm. Apps runners will give the area a Couple of nickel and dime messes in January/February and that's about it. I still stand by this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 It looks like a big fail for my analog snow forecast for December...but the below normal temps look likely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 22, 2022 Share Posted December 22, 2022 On 11/22/2022 at 2:51 PM, ChescoWx said: White Christmas anyone? What can go wrong with only 3 weeks to go?? 2009 redux - Book it!! This didn't age well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 22, 2022 Author Share Posted December 22, 2022 8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This didn't age well Indeed!! if we actually shoveled model snow output my snow blower would break down every year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 On 11/24/2022 at 10:49 AM, Mikeymac5306 said: Meh. I 'm still going with a repeat of last year. We'll be lucky to get one SECS storm. Apps runners will give the area a Couple of nickel and dime messes in January/February and that's about it. Nailed it... Should've put money on the Eagles/Chiefs Superbowl too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Nailed it... Should've put money on the Eagles/Chiefs Superbowl too. Nickel and dime? Some of you guys didn't even get the .9 that the gas stations show on their signs... When Tucson, AZ has more seasonal snow than PHL, something's wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, Voyager said: Nickel and dime? Some of you guys didn't even get the .9 that the gas stations show on their signs... When Tucson, AZ has more seasonal snow than PHL, something's wrong. Think Philly has .3" which is tied for 2nd or 3rd crapiest season snow total on record. Ugghh... 31F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: Think Philly has .3" which is tied for 2nd or 3rd crapiest season snow total on record. Ugghh... 31F Added the last event to my signature.....7 events this winter and couldn't even hit 2" total Snowfall. Talk about a ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 Well. That sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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