December 2022 Obs/Disc

[tavwtby]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

We had just under 1/2" with that storm a few weeks back.  It started around 9:00 pm and snowed hard for two to four hours. It covered everything up. When I woke up in the morning. There was still white patches here and there on the grass but it was raining by that point.

yeah got 1.2" from that, then sleet and rain washed it away, there was a small pile of white by the time I returned from Florida that time, hoping for some good stuff before I have to come back in mid January for like 3 weeks...

[weathafella]

It’s going to take a while to flush out the current pattern-up to 2-3 weeks possibly.

[brooklynwx99]

@40/70 Benchmark what's the wavenumber on this one? 12?

straight up grotesque

[UnitedWx]

37 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t think so. Most places in CT haven’t even seen a dusting yet. 

Interesting. We had 1.25" in Simsbury, about the same in Westfield from that system. I didn't really pay attention to the rest of the state, but thought it was more widespread 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya ..Block centered over Greenland and a +PNA .
That’s not delayed , it’s gone 

Find me a map that looks close to that for any time period coming up and I’ll send you 4 milfs 

 

and yes I know a pattern can be favorable without that look , we are all praying we see some good trends build closer 

Right, maybe it works itself into a decent pattern by the end of the month, but it’s going to be completely different.

Right for the absolute wrong reason kind of thing

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Same here actually...and we're both weather buffs. This place is great for weather... and miscellaneous transitory mental illness 

Is this coming out hour?  I'm joining in, though I don't think its news.

[EastonSN+]

40 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t think so. Most places in CT haven’t even seen a dusting yet. 

I lucked out with a dusting in Easton.

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems as though we’ve been yo-yo ed around.  We’re being bamboozled probably by a combination of what we want to see but this antic in the guidance of getting close if not outright offering the dream look …only to pull back and enter back into this weirdly tandem war/cool pattern as the whole scale finish … i’m done trying to filter this through optimism.

Meanwhile the NAO it’s just strange looking even in the EPS.  I’m sorry it is. Particularly in the GFS though with such a mass to the point where it doesn’t even look so much like an NAO anymore as much as it does a hemispheric problem with high heights to put it bluntly.

i’ve been playing around with this thought all day that it’s an NAO mangled by the climate change footprint.  I’m sure that’ll poke some hornets nests… roll lies or get people angry whatever I don’t give a shit it is what it is. And of course that may not be the case but it just looks strange and lacking any kind of explanation. 

Let's add the Tonga January 2022 volcano eruption to the theories for this weird pattern. The volcano was found to have injected an immense plume of water vapor (including ice) and ash into the Earth’s stratosphere and into the mesosphere, about 35 miles high. We don't yet know the ongoing impact on the global climate from this big eruption.  It did take place in the southern hemisphere so the effects on the northern hemisphere's climate would probably be delayed.  Anomalous cold and snow spilled into Australia and South America during the winter season that recently ended, with many records being shattered.

Just saying...

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs with a soaking rainstorm to central Canada for everyone’s holiday parties next weekend.

[UnitedWx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Is this coming out hour?  I'm joining in, though I don't think its news.

Apparently it is. And for the record... I am the DILF lol. My husband is 20 years younger 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I lucked out with a dusting in Easton.

I'm guessing that Sey-mour must have been asleep when we had the snow at first ( it was late ). If Fairfield and Easton got snow even as a dusting, I know Seymour definitely did as they're up the valley a little bit more. I was wrong by the way, I actually got just under an inch

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@40/70 Benchmark what's the wavenumber on this one? 12?

straight up grotesque

5 or 6?

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

5 or 6?

yeah, it's 6, forgot to divide by 2 haha

and the two little PV lobes in northern Canada. absolute chaos

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@40/70 Benchmark what's the wavenumber on this one? 12?

straight up grotesque

It looks like a child got ahold of a red and blue gel pack and smooshed their fingers all in it, lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Gfs with a soaking rainstorm to central Canada for everyone’s holiday parties next weekend.

At least we are seeing good run to run consistently with that Rainer 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

At least we are seeing good run to run consistently with that Rainer 

I’m glad  we have safe traveling weather 

[George001]

29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s going to take a while to flush out the current pattern-up to 2-3 weeks possibly.

Yeah things have changed. I was wrong, I don’t know why it’s so warm on the models with the negative NAO and La Niña but it is. If all of them are showing it, it can’t really be ignored. That said it can still snow in a bad pattern. There is still very much a path to an epic December, get 1 storm to break right while the pattern is still unfavorable over the next 2-3 weeks, and then a big one when the epic pattern settles in. Honestly this development although frustrating right now actually increases the ceiling, as the duration of the epic pattern will take place closer to the heart of winter. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Not to yank anyone's chain but this 18z GFS was little interesting for meteorologist ( less so for enthusiasts with hand throwing downer neurosis lol...)

But the mid/u/a/ counter part to the trough ejection for 13th's event is actually in fact being melded into the 17th as one contiguous series actually.

It's a change in the temporal spacial aspects of the 10th -20th of the month...  The way it more specifically manifests in the sfc synopsis, the 13th system no longer makes it N of the 50th parallel, before collapsing down across ~ ORD... The mid  / upper air centers actually perform the same bizarre curved trajectory as they too settle back south and in fact, by the 16th...they eject a significant wind max 500 mb across the Del Marva, which ignites a new low on the boundary...  This low moves N quickly and 'hooks' NW to VT, and flips the on going ana like rain sheild in NYS to snow as it pulls cold lurking near-by in Ontario - lurking there because the primary low and behavior never penetrated N of the border.   

That whole cinema is significantly different than previous solutions. But it is also more respective of  ....any f'n NAO at all for f sake.   haha. I mean, have you ever seen guidance more neurotic than the GFS, with first creating the thing and than having such utter fear of intimacy with it... 

Anyway, I just wanna also say that we've seen Minnesota mid ranger cyclones end up steadily corrected E ...and given that the 13th - 17th is still over a week away, it's not impossible.   I mean, as much as it entertains you to troll there is an other side to this that's equally available whether you believe it or not.  

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

At least we are seeing good run to run consistently with that Rainer 

One thing we can all agree on is you can ALWAYS bank on that.  

[George001]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to yank anyone's chain but this 18z GFS was little interesting for meteorologist ( less so for enthusiasts with hand throwing downer neurosis lol...)

But the mid/u/a/ counter part to the trough ejection for 13th's event is actually in fact being melded into the 17th as one contiguous series actually.

It's a change in the temporal spacial aspects of the 10th -20th of the month...  The way it more specifically manifest in the sfc synopsis, the 13th system no longer makes it N of the 50th parallel, before collapsing down across ~ ORD... The mid  / upper air centers actually perform the same bizarre curved trajectory as they too settle back south and in fact, by the 16th...there are shooting a significant wind max 500 mb across the Del Marva, which ignites a low on the boundary...  This low moves N quickly and 'hooks' NW to VT, and flips the on going ana like rain sheild in NY to snow as it pulls cold in lurking near-by in Ontario.   

That whole cinema is significantly different than previous solutions. But it is also more respective of  ....any f'n NAO at all for f sake.   haha. I mean, have you ever seen guidance more neurotic than the GFS, with first creating the thing and than having such utter fear of intimacy with it... 

Anyway, I just wanna also say that we've seen Minnesota mid ranger cyclones end up steadily corrected E ...and given that the 13th - 17th is still over a week away, it's not impossible.   I mean, as much as it entertains you to troll there is an other side to this that's equally available whether you believe it or not.  

Yeah there is still plenty of time for that to change. The useful guidance trended in the wrong direction for that today, but like you said in earlier posts the guidance has not been handling the pacific well at all.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

At least we are seeing good run to run consistently with that Rainer 

… that will verify with surgical precision. Book it 

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s going to take a while to flush out the current pattern-up to 2-3 weeks possibly.

Another 2-3 weeks lol. That puts us at end of month with no snow . This has completely fallen apart in every facet . A snowless Dec 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t think so. Most places in CT haven’t even seen a dusting yet. 

Huh?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Huh?

?

[UnitedWx]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Huh?

Yeah,  thats kind of what I was thinking. I swear a good part of the state did. Just spoke with a friend in Manchester and he said they had 3/4 inch during that event 

[Torch Tiger]

Days getting longer soon!  

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Apparently it is. And for the record... I am the DILF lol. My husband is 20 years younger 

Cradle robbing. Lol 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

?

I would say rather most have seen a dusting

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Yeah,  thats kind of what I was thinking. I swear a good part of the state did. Just spoke with a friend in Manchester and he said they had 3/4 inch during that event 

100% not .. maybe the northern tier did but not southern 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would say rather most have seen a dusting

I definitely can’t speak for the northern 4 counties just down here. We just had a few scattered snow squalls on a Friday night.  There was a sleet snow mix in northern CT on a Tuesday night that also left a trace in some spots.