December 2022 Obs/Disc

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Let’s see how this good pacific looks trends by the GTG. Give me consistently On a look  and get it inside 8 days or so otherwise ...groundhog day is a good movie . I like the look , I just have low confidence in models at these ranges , sorta like dentrite 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I cannot tell if that change in the EPS is overly significant or not, the PAC seemed better, it seems like probably a boatload of the ensemble members simply decided to show a monstrous S/W at 500 undercutting the ridge 

Seems as though we’ve been yo-yo ed around.  We’re being bamboozled probably by a combination of what we want to see but this antic in the guidance of getting close if not outright offering the dream look …only to pull back and enter back into this weirdly tandem warm/cool pattern as the whole scale finish … i’m done trying to filter this through optimism.

Meanwhile the NAO it’s just strange looking even in the EPS.  I’m sorry it is. Particularly in the GFS though with such a mass to the point where it doesn’t even look so much like an NAO anymore as much as it does a hemispheric problem with high heights to put it bluntly.

i’ve been playing around with this thought all day that it’s an NAO mangled by the climate change footprint.  I’m sure that’ll poke some hornets nests… roll lies or get people angry whatever I don’t give a shit it is what it is. And of course that may not be the case but it just looks strange and lacking any kind of explanation. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe. I feel like the goalposts have definitely done some shifting for sure though. Late December wasn’t the original look. 
 

hopefully it works out, but with the way we are already falling flat on our face, I’ll reserve judgement until the good look is really close 

I think this is what has some down-this map is from 11/30 for valid date 12/13--looks like it was too fast in the end which makes sense-models always too fast for pattern changes and also too fast to break them down

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's a very good pattern, the color shades are just showing the change between 00z and 12z....they aren't height anomalies. The 00z EPS was kind of ridiculous so I'm not surprised it tamed down a bit in the long range. More importantly, the 12z GEFS has a significantly better PAC by D10 and it continues to the end of the run, so we're getting some agreement now which we didn't have previously.

Ah, thanks for the clarification.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think this is what has some down-this map is from 11/30 for valid date 12/13--looks like it was too fast in the end which makes sense-models always too fast for pattern changes and also too fast to break them down

 

Ya ..Block centered over Greenland and a +PNA .
That’s not delayed , it’s gone 

Find me a map that looks close to that for any time period coming up and I’ll send you 4 milfs 

 

and yes I know a pattern can be favorable without that look , we are all praying we see some good trends build closer 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya ..Block centered over Greenland and a +PNA .
That’s not delayed , it’s gone 

Find me a map that looks close to that for any time period coming up and I’ll send you 4 milfs 

 

and yes I know a pattern can be favorable without that look , we are all praying we see some good trends build closer 

yeah, what was modeled end of Nov and early Dec is simply not there anymore....that's the problem-not being negative, it's reality.

[WxWatcher007]

On 11/30/2022 at 9:31 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree that the block will initially shred some stuff as it strengthens... but the window really opens up for a major event as it decays

the pattern evolution for 18"+ events for NYC, as well as parts of SNE by extension, shows this quite well:

if the pattern depicted by the EPS / GEPS is correct, which I believe it is to a large extent, then our window for a major storm would be in the Dec 15-25 timeframe as the block matures and decays over central Canada

 

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the favorable window was always in the latter half of the month, though. I personally said after the 15th a couple weeks ago

I can’t speak for others, but I don’t think the goal posts have substantively changed, at least in terms of my expectations.

A quick flip is always nice, but it was flagged weeks ago that there was a significant likelihood that a change in sensible weather for most would lag the upper level changes. Will has consistently talked about the pattern change occurring in stages. 

Obviously, we’d like to see op runs and ensembles aligned especially with regard to the PAC, but as @40/70 Benchmark and others have noted the overarching change is rooted in tropical forcing and is unlikely to totally flop.

I will readily admit to having no proficiency in that kind of analysis but just looking at the 500mb evolution I think there’s a lot of consternation over the speed of the sensible wx change when there’s not a clear trend imho that has raised alarms that the post 15th period will be “bad”.

I still think we’re moving in the right direction, with a potential window for a mixed bag (advisory) system between the 10-15th and higher end potential (warning level) after that. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I recall that year vividly . It was a nightmare. I was working at another job based in Bristol. It was like 2-4” snowfall. It was a DC winter except we had two 3-4” sleet storms later that winter 

I don't think 2006-2007 was a DC winter...the second half pummeled NNE and the deep interior.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah, what was modeled end of Nov and early Dec is simply not there anymore....that's the problem-not being negative, it's reality.

I mean last nites 0z euro had a +pna and with a  bootleg block that looked close , I just wanted to see that look take another step in the right direction today , and it was also at good ole day 9-10 so caveats

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I can’t speak for others, but I don’t think the goal posts have substantively changed, at least in terms of my expectations.

A quick flip is always nice, but it was flagged weeks ago that there was a significant likelihood that a change in sensible weather for most would lag the upper level changes. Will has consistently talked about the pattern change occurring in stages. 

Obviously, we’d like to see op runs and ensembles aligned especially with regard to the PAC, but as @40/70 Benchmark and others have noted the overarching change is rooted in tropical forcing and is unlikely to totally flop.

I will readily admit to having no proficiency in that kind of analysis but just looking at the 500mb evolution I think there’s a lot of consternation over the speed of the sensible wx change when there’s not a clear trend imho that has raised alarms that the post 15th period will be “bad”.

I still think we’re moving in the right direction, with a potential window for a mixed bag (advisory) system between the 10-15th and higher end potential (warning level) after that. 

 

 

My threat period was always after the tenth...as it turns out, models initially rushed the change, so the first couple or few post 12/10 threats will fail...but this actually aligns better with my outlook assessment.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Wxwatcher , I think as time has moved forward into December the goal posts have widened . Still lots of potential and uncertainty is higher than it seemed to me a week ago 

[40/70 Benchmark]

What is strange to me is the shenanigans with the block....the Pacific being an issue is what I expected in December. I get that models struggle with blocks, but this is down right bizarre. 

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares what it has 

I rarely ever look anymore. This place tells me what I need to know. I have the most fun nowcast instead of forecast, watching radar, chaos and destruction unfolding , heavy damage, etc the normal stuff. 

[Snowcrazed71]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you ever post with the thought process that things might end up with with all of us wearing rose colored glasses? I’ve never seen you post anything but frontal MILF nudity when in reality right we are more likely to see frontal  Dilf nudity 

Um, I'd be careful what you say. Kev. Some of us actually might like frontal dilf nudity. Just saying ;-)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Um, I'd be careful what you say. Kev. Some of us actually might like frontal dilf nudity. Just saying ;-)

It's okay, man...judgement free zone. You DILF on with yo bad self...

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wxwatcher , I think as time has moved forward into December the goal posts have widened . Still lots of potential and uncertainty is higher than it seemed to me a week ago 

I think the uncertainty is a little greater given the PAC and orientation of the block, but it’s not terribly substantive in my mind yet wrt the likely outcome—which is a broadly favorable wintry pattern post Dec 15.

Could be wrong of course about that. If it’s getting pushed back in time the next few days that’d be a cause of concern for me. Even then, I don’t think I’d worry too much about eventually hitting in December. I do believe we will have greater than climo odds of a big dog the later we go given the block if there’s a relaxation in the Pacific.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's okay, man...judgement free zone. You DILF on with yo bad self...

Lol.. I'm just laughing at myself. I'm married to a guy, and I could care less about all the m*** jokes. I just like messing with Kev. Because he always talks a lot about milfs..lol. I'm here for the weather just like the rest of you guys.

[UnitedWx]

14 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I rarely ever look anymore. This place tells me what I need to know. I have the most fun nowcast instead of forecast, watching radar, chaos and destruction unfolding , heavy damage, etc the normal stuff. 

Scott Haney will not be pleased! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lol.. I'm just laughing at myself. I'm married to a guy, and I could care less about all the m*** jokes. I just like messing with Kev. Because he always talks a lot about milfs..lol. I'm here for the weather just like the rest of you guys.

It's cool you don't take it personally....I know these guys and none of us are homophobic. Just lighthearted stupidity haha

[UnitedWx]

8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lol.. I'm just laughing at myself. I'm married to a guy, and I could care less about all the m*** jokes. I just like messing with Kev. Because he always talks a lot about milfs..lol. I'm here for the weather just like the rest of you guys.

Same here actually...and we're both weather buffs. This place is great for weather... and miscellaneous transitory mental illness 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's cool you don't take it personally....I know these guys and none of us are homophobic. Just lighthearted stupidity haha

Listen. I have Three Brothers. Trust me, my brothers have a lot of fun with me and I do with them. I love the light-hearted stupidity. Feels like I'm home. And let's get a damn snow storm going or something

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is strange to me is the shenanigans with the block....the Pacific being an issue is what I expected in December. I get that models struggle with blocks, but this is down right bizarre. 

I wonder if it has to do with with overall structure of the PV (both TPV and SPV). The PV looks quite robust and is displaced towards the other side of the hemisphere. Seems like interactions with lobes of the PV and the block are resulting in some funky looks (This is more me thinking out loud and may be meteorologically incorrect). Just picked a random time stamp for image below

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Latest BDL inch of snow on record?  @CT Rain 

They already had their inch a couple weeks back right? If they didn't it was only within a mile or two

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if it has to do with with overall structure of the PV (both TPV and SPV). The PV looks quite robust and is displaced towards the other side of the hemisphere. Seems like interactions with lobes of the PV and the block are resulting in some funky looks (This is more me thinking out loud and may be meteorologically incorrect). Just picked a random time stamp for image below

Where do you generate that image?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where do you generate that image?

https://www.stratobserve.com/

This site is incredible. 

Only issue is I am not totally sure how to interpret or put to use the information  

[tavwtby]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

https://www.stratobserve.com/

This site is incredible. 

Only issue is I am not totally sure how to interpret or put to use the information  

that is a cool site, hard to navigate on a phone, but a lot of nice strato info, to try and decipher... while I'm stuck back in Florida for a few days, just catching up on the goings on, I'm flying out on Friday, are we still looking at a possible retro this weekend?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

21 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

They already had their inch a couple weeks back right? If they didn't it was only within a mile or two

Don’t think so. Most places in CT haven’t even seen a dusting yet. 

[CoastalWx]

I don't think the strat vort has anything to do with it. It's just nuances in the flow. There is a PV in Canada that has been shooting offspring around and playing with the block...but that is also from the Pacific causing issues. This isn't that sort of classic PV trapped under a block. It is stuck in western Canada and gets booted north. You can see that early on with the H5 anomalies. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t think so. Most places in CT haven’t even seen a dusting yet. 

just some flakes in the air here one time...that's it so far

[Snowcrazed71]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Don’t think so. Most places in CT haven’t even seen a dusting yet. 

We had just under 1/2" with that storm a few weeks back.  It started around 9:00 pm and snowed hard for two to four hours. It covered everything up. When I woke up in the morning. There was still white patches here and there on the grass but it was raining by that point.