December 2022 Obs/Disc

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Run to run change from EPS in the 7-11 day period not what you want to see.  

While the gefs got better lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Latest BDL inch of snow on record?  @CT Rain 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Latest BDL inch of snow on record?  @CT Rain 

Feb 9 2007

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Latest BDL inch of snow on record?  @CT Rain 

Wasn't it in like 2006? 

[CoastalWx]

EPS was fine in the PAC. If anything the GEFS were better lol, but at least they are closer in agreement. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Feb 9 2007

Damn really?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wasn't it in like 2006? 

I have no memory of stuff like that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wasn't it in like 2006? 

Nah, Dec 2005 was snowy....its 2007,

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I have no memory of stuff like that. 

I remember that b/c it was HORRIFIC. It kinda of fizzled out by the time it got here, but we had a severe weather outbreak on December 1, 2006 and there was a moderate risk that just got into Connecticut. but I think that January (or even early February) saw 60's in parts of SNE and 70's into NYC. We finally got some snow later in February and I think March.

We got royally screwed with the SWFE too on Valentine's Day (Please Tip we don't need to hear the love story again). It was like 14F and sleet in West Hartford with only a few inches of snow. NNE got destroyed. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah, Dec 2005 was snowy....its 2007,

Mis-type on my part...I was typing the season but should have said 2006-2007

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS was fine in the PAC. If anything the GEFS were better lol, but at least they are closer in agreement. 

yeah, it looks like this before anyone panics lmao. positive anomalies in all the right places

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, it looks like this before anyone panics lmao. positive anomalies in all the right places

It’s a massive change in a negative direction for winter weather enthusiasts. Hopefully 00z reverts back. One more change like that and uh oh .. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Damn really?

I recall that year vividly . It was a nightmare. I was working at another job based in Bristol. It was like 2-4” snowfall. It was a DC winter except we had two 3-4” sleet storms later that winter 

[CoastalWx]

Might be a SWFE look. At least Canada has more money in the bank with that look.

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s a massive change in a negative direction for winter weather enthusiasts. Hopefully 00z reverts back. One more change like that and uh oh .. 

yeah, but you could make the same argument saying that it could change in a more favorable way like the GEFS this afternoon. nobody really knows

the glass half empty approach is much more prevalent here though

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, but you could make the same argument saying that it could change in a more favorable way. nobody really knows

the glass half empty approach is much more prevalent here though

True, maybe this just raises the stakes for a Dec 20-25 storm. Pattern cant just keep on going to crap. Or can it lol 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Well GEFS shows significant PAC improvement after day 7. 

Just catching up on post-Euro....seems like the PAC improvement is now inside of 10 days on all ensemble guidance...so even if we strike out in the next week or so, it looks like we'll have a good situation to work with beyond mid-month.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, but you could make the same argument saying that it could change in a more favorable way like the GEFS this afternoon. nobody really knows

the glass half empty approach is much more prevalent here though

Do you ever post with the thought process that things might end up with with all of us wearing rose colored glasses? I’ve never seen you post anything but frontal MILF nudity when in reality right we are more likely to see frontal  Dilf nudity 

[dendrite]

30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Feb 9 2007

Close. Feb 2

[STILL N OF PIKE]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you ever post with the thought process that things might end up with everything may not end up with all of us wearing rose colored glasses? I’ve never seen you post anything but frontal MILF nudity when in reality right we are more likely to see frontal  Dilf nudity 

Millennials 

lol I dunno , I heard it’s a thing with them 

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Damn really?

BDL had 12.4” through 3/15. 

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you ever post with the thought process that things might end up with everything may not end up with all of us wearing rose colored glasses? I’ve never seen you post anything but frontal MILF nudity when in reality right we are more likely to see frontal  Dilf nudity 

I'm not so sure about that. the pattern that we're likely to enter during the second half of the month looks pretty damn good... not sure what else to say about that. all three major ensembles agree on it, and I'm pretty certain that there would be good chances for significant events

could it blow up, sure, but you can say that about literally every pattern. it's a cop-out and it's based on nothing more than anecdotes and feelings

if you'd rather be pessimistic for whatever reason, that's your prerogative, i guess

if you can actually explain why you feel the bolded above, then that's fine, but I don't think there's any actual meteorological backing behind it

[Go Kart Mozart]

41 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Run to run change from EPS in the 7-11 day period not what you want to see.  

The pretty colors are in the wrong places, but the shape of the height contours look just fine.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, but you could make the same argument saying that it could change in a more favorable way like the GEFS this afternoon. nobody really knows

the glass half empty approach is much more prevalent here though

I think there has been a lot of turd polishing over the last 3-5 days. Maybe it ends up favorably; but it’s likely going to be towards the end of the month for most outside of NNE unless one of these sloppy events over the next 10 days or so work out.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think there has been a lot of turd polishing over the last 3-5 days. Maybe it ends up favorably; but it’s likely going to be towards the end of the month for most outside of NNE unless one of these sloppy events over the next 10 days or so work out.

the favorable window was always in the latter half of the month, though. I personally said after the 15th a couple weeks ago

[SnowGoose69]

I cannot tell if that change in the EPS is overly significant or not, the PAC seemed better, it seems like probably a boatload of the ensemble members simply decided to show a monstrous S/W at 500 undercutting the ridge 

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think there has been a lot of turd polishing over the last 3-5 days. Maybe it ends up favorably; but it’s likely going to be towards the end of the month for most outside of NNE unless one of these sloppy events over the next 10 days or so work out.

The understatement of the year!

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

The pretty colors are in the wrong places, but the shape of the height contours look just fine.

It's a very good pattern, the color shades are just showing the change between 00z and 12z....they aren't height anomalies. The 00z EPS was kind of ridiculous so I'm not surprised it tamed down a bit in the long range. More importantly, the 12z GEFS has a significantly better PAC by D10 and it continues to the end of the run, so we're getting some agreement now which we didn't have previously.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the favorable window was always in the latter half of the month, though. I personally said after the 15th a couple weeks ago

Maybe. I feel like the goalposts have definitely done some shifting for sure though. Late December wasn’t the original look. 
 

hopefully it works out, but with the way we are already falling flat on our face, I’ll reserve judgement until the good look is really close 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm not so sure about that. the pattern that we're likely to enter during the second half of the month looks pretty damn good... not sure what else to say about that. all three major ensembles agree on it, and I'm pretty certain that there would be good chances for significant events

could it blow up, sure, but you can say that about literally every pattern. it's a cop-out and it's based on nothing more than anecdotes and feelings

if you'd rather be pessimistic for whatever reason, that's your prerogative, i guess

if you can actually explain why you feel the bolded above, then that's fine, but I don't think there's any actual meteorological backing behind it

Beers