December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s not a favorable look. Period 

Not entirely certain what the pages contain since yesterday but in deference to the patterning evolution over the last 24 hours, in the runs, I cannot in objective fairness disagree with that sentiment as of this morning’s coffee. 

Little furthering on that … the Pacific relay over western N/A has been vacillating - we’ve been ruminating the issues with that ad nauseam But it is unfortunately still the biggest hurdle. 

A lot has been said over the last three weeks by a lot of different people - myself included.  I have voiced sentiments on either side of pessimism versus optimism. I ultimately sided with optimism (in the context of what optimism means for this particular social media depot ) because there is a historical precedents for seasonal lapsing over the last decade. Blocking during transition seasons, Regardless of leading indicators…, loading cold transports etc. etc. Additionally, La Nina’s have a historical suggestion for early performance – helped along by the fact that we’ve had a very well coupled Nina basal state Pacific this autumn …might lend support for that as well  

The combination of those two factors made the negative EPO that was modeled two weeks ago (which by the way ended up arriving in passing more modest), as well as the impending negative NAO, a reasonable fits. 

The fact of the matter is… that’s all still the case and they still are.

That all said I agree with Brian wholeheartedly that the NAO has a long history of breaking hearts when relying on long range excitement. I can dig back and find the post where I spoke about this with in no uncertain terms and in vivid detail why and how the NAO did not mean XYZ necessarily. I spoke at length about both the fail/red herring NAO handling m, and also tried to explain why the D(NAO) is more important than the NAO scaler mode. Old lessons were false in the 1990s and they’re still not dying, perhaps. Be that as it may we did except that notion by suggesting that the NAO would relax after the initial onset and there’s discussion in that area… All of which seems perhaps moot at this point if the models fail this vastly with structural handling in the first place. 

Yesterday and still today the GEFs -based PNA numerical values were/are rising some 2 standard deviations in the 7-10 day delta. I don’t believe the Pacific is being handled with very much better vision when the oper version cannot seem to ever reflect its own modes.
 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Next couple days we get to enjoy some rains and torch coming up from the south . Southern Hospitality . Remember when the Euro had this trending cold ? Another first half of a winter month lost to warm rains at least 

 

Daylight starts increasing on the 22nd, trouble looms. 

[weatherwiz]

Sometimes its hard to follow what's going on. It's December 6. We aren't even close to peak climo in terms of temperature or snowfall. The pattern looks to favor blocking potential for quite a while...there would have to be a substantial, massive disruption to erode this signal. It's also very unlikely the PAC remains this hostile. The PAC will relax...now does that mean once it relaxes it won't become hostile again, no. 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Daylight starts increasing on the 22nd, trouble looms. 

See you on Saturday in ORH right?Join the conversations of rains and rumors of rains .

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

See you on Saturday in ORH right?

That’s the plan. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sometimes its hard to follow what's going on. It's December 6. We aren't even close to peak climo in terms of temperature or snowfall. The pattern looks to favor blocking potential for quite a while...there would have to be a substantial, massive disruption to erode this signal. It's also very unlikely the PAC remains this hostile. The PAC will relax...now does that mean once it relaxes it won't become hostile again, no. 

I have later December and much of January with a nice Pacific, aside from the thaw, when we may have a piggish interlude to deal with.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have later December and much of January with a nice Pacific, aside from the thaw, when we may have a piggish interlude to deal with.

January could really be fun. 

I am totally fine with a hostile PAC right now and hostile as in potential to change. Unlike some of the past winters where the PAC screwed us, there aren't many signals that the PAC pattern is going to remain stagnant. If it was a signal where the PAC will be in a somewhat steady state...well that would raise some concerns, but there is alot of hostility indicating we'll see changes within the PAC. This certainly doesn't guarantee we get nailed, but it's what you want to see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

January could really be fun. 

I am totally fine with a hostile PAC right now and hostile as in potential to change. Unlike some of the past winters where the PAC screwed us, there aren't many signals that the PAC pattern is going to remain stagnant. If it was a signal where the PAC will be in a somewhat steady state...well that would raise some concerns, but there is alot of hostility indicating we'll see changes within the PAC. This certainly doesn't guarantee we get nailed, but it's what you want to see.

I don't expect an epic season, but I would be pretty surprised if we don't get "nailed"...or most of us, anyway.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Anyone notice Ginx stopped posting . Speaks volumes 

Just sitting here smilin with patience 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just sitting here smilin with patience 

I know you want the poo frozen ASAP. 

[brooklynwx99]

not putting any stock in this, but it's incredible how the GFS finds every conceivable way to screw some of the pattern features up. not sure if I've ever seen a ULL over the Davis Strait in the middle of a block 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noones heard from him since big , snowy month of December forecast came out. I hope he’s able to make it on Saturday 

Dumb I posted quite a few times the last days. You always panic its what you do.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know you want the poo frozen ASAP. 

Alot less these days down 2 dogs in 2 months. This place is totally insane. Yes I will be there Saturday. Someone owes me a beer.

[Damage In Tolland]

Big big snows . Go , go, go !

[CoastalWx]

Oh Canada??

[ORH_wxman]

Amazing how different GFS and GGEM are at just day 4. GEM is def going to hit us on 12/12 again this run. GFS does have a system for 12/12 but it’s way south. Not really a good upper air shortwave with it like the GEM. But the differences are already huge on these runs by even day 3/4. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Alot less these days down 2 dogs in 2 months. This place is totally insane. Yes I will be there Saturday. Someone owes me a beer.

Sorry, man...that sucks.

[ORH_wxman]

GEM is actually going for the system on 12/11. A day earlier. 

[CoastalWx]

 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Big big snows . Go , go, go !

Guiness Stout draft 20 OZ

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Amazing how different GFS and GGEM are at just day 4. GEM is def going to hit us on 12/12 again this run. GFS does have a system for 12/12 but it’s way south. Not really a good upper air shortwave with it like the GEM. But the differences are already huge on these runs by even day 3/4. 

The euro definitely schooled the gfs on shredding the Friday nite - Saturday idea unless another model caught on first 

[CoastalWx]

LMAO what a nuke. These differences are insane.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

What a little nuke. That would crush the interior. Coast even flips. Kind of reminds me of the first Dec ‘96 system. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

What a little nuke. That would crush the interior. Coast even flips. Kind of reminds me of the first Dec ‘96 system. 

I'd take it.   

[CoastalWx]

Absolute vomit....like Kevin in an Explorer driving back from a burger bar in West Hartford type puke on the GFS. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I'd take it.   

Just saw another frame. That would be quite a bit better than Dec ‘96 system #1. Esp for coast. I think you had about 3-5” of paste from that one? This run would easily give you warning snows. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Absolute vomit....like Kevin in an Explorer driving back from a burger bar in West Hartford type puke on the GFS. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Just saw another frame. That would be quite a bit better than Dec ‘96 system #1. Esp for coast. I think you had about 3-5” of paste from that one? This run would easily give you warning snows. 

Yeah about 5" there. TSSN too. Just pure paste.  This thing just stalls lol. But you can see how the s/w rips off as the block to the north is forming. That's how it gets it done. 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh Canada??

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd take it.   

From far and wide, O Canada, we stand on guard for thee? 

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What a little nuke. That would crush the interior. Coast even flips. Kind of reminds me of the first Dec ‘96 system. 

Stir the pot why don't you!