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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I acknowledged the 14th deal, but I’m just not a fan of how that forms verbatim. I feel like some sort of SWFE is in the cards for that one, but I could see the gfs solution too. 
 

Regardless, I’m looking past  that and given better Pacific and deeper into December climo, hopeful for some fun.   If we get something before that, it’s all gravy imo. 

I wouldn't sleep on 12/12 yet either. Low probability but hard to trust guidance when there's a lot of stuff that has to happen first and there's a good chance guidance doesn't deal with all of the Dec 9-11 stuff downstream accurately until we are closer.

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I don’t think it’s emotionally driven to say you can’t trust the euro suite past 10 days , again nobody said toss it , just monitor it like you would a hot chick you just met/ talking with And realize she is probably talking with a few other dudes and she may not be there in 10 days , be hopeful but don’t believe it’s likely . 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t think it’s emotionally driven to say you can’t trust the euro suite past 10 days , again nobody said toss it , just monitor it like you would a hot chick your  talking with And realize she is probably talking with 10 other dudes and she may not be there in 10 days , be hopeful but don’t believe it’s likely . 

True.

That is fair. My bad....

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn't sleep on 12/12 yet either. Low probability but hard to trust guidance when there's a lot of stuff that has to happen first and there's a good chance guidance doesn't deal with all of the Dec 9-11 stuff downstream accurately until we are closer.

Yeah we were talking about that earlier. I secretly want that to happen...but I think it's a low prob for sure. We can hope. Lots of shit flying around during that time.

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45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December 2007....pretty good month, right....first warned event 12/13.

how about Dec 2002. started out with a bang on Dec 5, over a foot of snow IIRC. then it all melted. 3 weeks later on Xmas night the gates opened up for a pretty decent 02-03 winter

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10 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

One post here in the last 2-3 hours tells you all you need to know.  Also, 4 (soon to be 3) members posting.

Just looking briefly because i've been extremely busy, It looks like its rehashing all the same scenarios over and over again for the next 3 systems, Carry on, See you soon..........;)

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I told Scott I was gonna climb Mansfield after the mid week rains and grab some flowers from the Stowe Shaw’s and plant them next to powder freaks snow stake ..And leave a box wrapped with a reindeer sweater and a bottle of Jack 

You have to do that. :lol:  

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December 2007....pretty good month, right....first warned event 12/13.

That day was a f'ing disaster. I flew up there for work that day and landed about 30 minutes before the snow started. Took me 7.5 hours to get from Logan to Bedford. This was before smartphones, so I tried taking back roads by using non-live Google maps on my laptop connected via jetpack. Pretty sure it didn't make a lick of difference. :lol:

Good times!

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1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said:

What people don't understand about an upstream block is that it's essentially squeezing the box of chaos to take up an area in which the probability for a snowstorm is greater. That is all it is

Its "squeezing the box of chaos" because the models aren't adept at figuring out this current pattern, simple. Fluid dynamics for the P.I.A. some are experiencing

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