December 2022 Obs/Disc

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The nothing has changed folks , everything as scheduled were put out to pasture . 
 

The block Had morphed into something significantly differen then forecast days ago and last nite continued with more changes . 
 

Things are up in the air as they have been , unless you wanna pretend a 11-15 day look is not la la land . 

It’s not a favorable look. Period 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s not a favorable look. Period 

Ithe day 9 plus look can wind up favorable , things are very changeable at that timeframe and models have lower value at that lead time

the goal posts are very wide  

[Go Kart Mozart]

28 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

31 at the office here in Simsbury. The inversion this morning is causing a strange mix of fried chicken from the Big Y across the street and the local sewage treatment facility... hey, it is an obs thread

Crazy inversion this morning.  I take the dog down to the Pequannock River Trail each morning....1/4 of a mile from my house but 170' lower.  I dressed for the 40f based on my home thermometer, not the 30f down in the gorge.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Alta at 150" on the season now.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Alta at 150" on the season now.

The Pacific telling the block to take a hike. 
 

However, after whatever happens on the 13th, both sets of guidance get better out west so I think that has legs. Hopefully something comes out of that period around 13-14.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s not a favorable look. Period 

It still is

We have to be patient 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It still is

We have to be patient 

For the next week? No.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 hours ago, George001 said:

The gfs got worse since the upgrade, it’s been shifting thousands of miles every run. The Euro has struggled with the pattern as well but not to that extent. Since when did blocks hook up with SE ridges? Aren’t they supposed to suppress the storm track south? If I end up being wrong and the blocking hooks up with the SE ridge, and then the low rams into the block I’ll admit it.  But right now I am going to ignore the GFS and stick to looking at what the other models do. In my opinion every model is cutting the low too far inland, and I think it will turn into a Miller B as we get closer to the storm. There was a storm a couple years ago the models had cutting to Wisconsin, and then it turned into a Miller B in the mid range. That said, I do have concerns about the airmass. It is not all that cold.

Saying since the upgrade implies the upgrade did something. Maybe … maybe not.  

Fwiw I am more more inclined to suspect the pattern is just troublesome in general to its particular ‘machinery’. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It still is

We have to be patient 

I mean we have to be optimistic is a better way to put it if you wanna say the forecastable period is good , as you are putting a lot of eggs in the models can see the pacific pattern well at a long lead time . 

Scott has said the tropical forcing favors a -PNa for a bit so let’s wait till any good pacific look gets inside 10 days like we are used to Doing .

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Saying since the upgrade implies the upgrade did something. Maybe … maybe not.  

Fwiw I am more more inclined to suspect the pattern is just troublesome in general to its particular ‘machinery’. 

It’s been trouble on all guidance. King euro has been king nothing. 
 

Mettalica said it best. 
 

 

[Allsnow]

PAC > Atlantic 

[Brian5671]

27 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Crazy inversion this morning.  I take the dog down to the Pequannock River Trail each morning....1/4 of a mile from my house but 170' lower.  I dressed for the 40f based on my home thermometer, not the 30f down in the gorge.

Love that trail.  Yeah it's in a valley so I can see the cold air settling in...

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The Pacific telling the block to take a hike. 
 

However, after whatever happens on the 13th, both sets of guidance get better out west so I think that has legs. Hopefully something comes out of that period around 13-14.

Agreed.  1st half of month punted.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s been trouble on all guidance. King euro has been king nothing. 
 

Mettalica said it best. 
 

 

Euro has had a tendency to over-amplify since it's last upgrade.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Agreed.  1st half of month punted.

The euro delayed the block moving into a favorable retrograde position , delayed delayed and then denied . The euro cucked us. The gfs whispered it was gonna but nobody wanted to hear or believe she could do that lol . Things can still work out interior with some luck before the 15’th but the look has changed . Anyway , moving on and hoping we can get a solid look as climo turns helpful soon for many . 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Agreed.  1st half of month punted.

might be the first 2/3, any changes remain in fantasy land  (day 10+)

[greenmtnwx]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

PAC > Atlantic 

Pacific always more important that Atlantic. And I’ll take the +PNA over the western trough this time of year every year. At least it allows for chances of clippers, cold for snowmaking and perhaps a coastal. Once cold is established then a little SE ridge can be ok but not now. The NAO block really hurt in a couple ways. One, it was becoming clear as Q had said recently that the strength of the SE ridge left the door open for a linking with the North Atlantic block. He nailed that. Two, it really cutoff our cold source to the north so any cold air is stagnant and Maritime. We are fluctuating between puke maritime cold air and south east ridge warmth back-and-forth. December looks to end well above normal in temperature, below in snow and could be very wet with a few rainstorms the next 3 weeks. Only the highest of elevations in northern New England could get frozen precip. I do hold out hope though that an improved Pacific later in the month could lead to some better chances after the new year. But December outside of high elevations is punted. Christmas ski season very disappointing this year. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

PAC > Atlantic 

Always has been 

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Pacific always more important that Atlantic. And I’ll take the +PNA over the western trough this time of year every year. At least it allows for chances of clippers, cold for snowmaking and perhaps a coastal. Once cold is established then a little SE ridge can be ok but not now. The NAO block really hurts in a few ways. One, it was becoming clear as Q had said recently that they strength of the SE ridge left the door open for a linking with the North Atlantic block. He nailed that. Two, it really cutoff out cold source to the north so any cold air is stagnant and Maritime. We are fluctuating between puke maritime cold air and south east ridge warmed back-and-forth. December looks to end well above normal in temperature, below in snow and could be very wet with a few rainstorms the next 3 weeks. Only the highest of elevations in northern New England could get frozen precip. I do hold out hope though that an improved Pacific later in the month could lead to some better chances after the new year. But December outside of high elevations is punted. Christmas ski season very disappointing this year. 

Good post.    Decembers have generally been mild/snowless going back to 2011 at least for the coastal plain.    Couple mid month storms in 2013 and 2020 but right back to warmth after said storms....

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Good post.    Decembers have generally been mild/snowless going back to 2011 at least for the coastal plain.    Couple mid month storms in 2013 and 2020 but right back to warmth after said storms....

December 2017 was very cold on the coast.

 

Which was all pna/epo driven 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

December 2017 was very cold on the coast.

 

Which was all pna/epo driven 

I think that was mainly the last frigid week though?    That was one heck of a cold snap-I didn't crack freezing for 2 weeks from Xmas day to the blizzard in early Jan.

[qg_omega]

On 11/30/2022 at 8:55 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

soak it in, this is about as weenie as it gets

a 300+ anomaly on a 5 day mean at that range is bonkers

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I think that was mainly the last frigid week though?    That was one heck of a cold snap-I didn't crack freezing for 2 weeks from Xmas day to the blizzard in early Jan.

I didn't get above 10F for like a week I think.

[dendrite]

Like I said to pickles yesterday, I'm always wary about modeled NAO region blocks in the LR.

But it doesn't really matter much for my area. It can snow a variety of ways...just get some systems. I'm fine with the PAC driving the bus.

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

His post wasn't wrong at the time, that's what it showed on 11/30. But why are you comparing 500mb with 2m Temp anomalies.

[greenmtnwx]

12 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Damn that’s ugly, and that’s the worshipped EPS. Have to let you spike the ball a little though after the knocks that you took. Kudos for the pattern recognition. Hats off to Jerry too for saying hold on a second Q has some validity and makes some fair points. With any risk management assessment in life you’ve got to weigh the options of what could break either way. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think that was mainly the last frigid week though?    That was one heck of a cold snap-I didn't crack freezing for 2 weeks from Xmas day to the blizzard in early Jan.

It was the entire month but not as below as the last week of it. 
 

BDR -3.5 5.5 of snow 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Like I said to pickles yesterday, I'm always wary about modeled NAO region blocks in the LR.

But it doesn't really matter much for my area. It can snow a variety of ways...just get some systems. I'm fine with the PAC driving the bus.

I think we all are . Let’s just see what pacific personality takes the wheel and wait till anything favorable gets inside 8-9’days Before we sign the waiver 

[CoastalWx]

Saying the next week kind of stinks, is also in no way of saying the season should be canceled. I feel like people are going off the deep end as usual. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sucks the block gets delayed, but in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't change much IMO...it just lops the first several days off of the post 12/10 period, which were tenuous for coastal SNE, anyway.

Pacific and Atlantic still look good after mid-month and I see a nice storm signal from about 12/17 to 12/19.