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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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44 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

George001 has always channelled the spirit of James (Rest in Peace). Gotta love his enthusiasm. 

It's sorta like that movie Beerfest where Landfill's identical twin brother comes to visit and allows his friends to call him Landfill, so it's like he never left us. 

Anything with beer is good . Even the GFS

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GFS is arriving less progressive in the late mid and early extended range across the conus with all major features… proximately 500 nautical miles maybe or a little more. Defined difference also is the trough at 168 hours going through the south west is obscenely powerful. 

Sure how this will affect the evolution when all this gets east but it is what it is as it’s rolling out

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One thing it’s gonna be less aggressive in winding up the low and taking it west of Chicago on this run

I mean I may have a low out there but the morphology aloft and support for deep low transit west of the Great Lakes is definitely reduced on this 18 Z

Yeah. Almost looks more like a SWFE. 

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…it’s completely different across all the western US with the scale degree ridging … the timing of short waves coming out the Pacific even the details of the flow they’re all different this model has very very poor continuity …actually has zero continuity - it’s pretty much impossible to make out or identify the same features as the previous run relative to the time interval   that’s the best way to describe this it just cannot see what’s going on coming off the Pacific Ocean after D6+ with much clarity. I would say that it’s worse than relative to even model error climate

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Well in any event… It’s too far out in time to make this kind of detailed comparison really.

It’s basically just what I said earlier in the day. 13.14.15 the biggest sensitivity in all this is the handling off the Pacific; it’s just not in the Gfs‘s purview to actually do that… Apparently   

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