Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Bob you never bought into the period up to the 14’th or so looking good , what do you think of the 15-20’th at this time range if anything (and I realize u were talking about for SE mass ) I think the threat is legit in that timeframe. I think it's more an interior and elevation event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Tip might have some additional fodder for his 12/13-14 thread on this run. Euro is trying for a Miller B in that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Euro was juicy for middle next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The other thing to watch is the height tendencies out west. Lower heights again at day 7 there on EPS. I wouldn’t want it much lower than shown. For as much shit as the gfs has gotten, I think the EPS has played catchup to the pacific too. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 EPS is pretty amped for 13-14. SWFE meaning winds SW at the surface? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The other thing to watch is the height tendencies out west. Lower heights again at day 7 there on EPS. I wouldn’t want it much lower than shown. For as much shit as the gfs has gotten, I think the EPS has played catchup to the pacific too. For the record… I don’t mean to actually give the GFS shit ha ha. Just sayn. not speaking for everybody else Like I said it gave me pause because so much of the forecast system is doing what it’s doing. You know re the NAO …it’s almost like if you took an NAO appliqué to 30 more years of climate change you might get one that looks that way. It keeps occurring to me to be honest in kind a coveted little muse. I just read WPC is extended forecast discussion and they’re talking about the poor continuity and the bad predictability everywhere so seeing this massive continuity swinging around like this I really don’t take any of these runs very seriously including the entire ensemble system of the GFS or the EPS for that matter. I’m just trying to rely upon the numerical Teleconnectors and they still flag the 13 14 15 8–10 days might also be a clue too. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 not bad 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I would like to see the trough out west weaken though. It doesn’t need to be great but I would rather see a slightly negative PNA than a very negative one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, George001 said: not bad Can always go higher 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is pretty amped for 13-14. SWFE meaning winds SW at the surface? Sounds like a rain to Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Not a lot of them, but there are a few big snowers on EPS for 12/12....that follow-up wave behind 12/10 threat we were talking about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not a lot of them, but there are a few big snowers on EPS for 12/12....that follow-up wave behind 12/10 threat we were talking about earlier. I saw that on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 It’s fun to watch. Never have I seen models flip back and forth so frequently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s fun to watch. Never have I seen models flip back and forth so frequently. I could think of a few sequences that were a bit more fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 With all this being said, I still want to drop my draws for the EPS 11-15 day. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: With all this being said, I still want to drop my draws for the EPS 11-15 day. Barrel of laughs watching the GFS model the Godzilla of an NAO block to gobble up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 What happens first ..11-15 day Shiats itself or it moves inside 10 days . Anyone taking any action / odds for this Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: With all this being said, I still want to drop my draws for the EPS 11-15 day. This looks like El Nino PAC....a bit skeptical of this....but nice to look at. But even a neutral PAcific is going to be good in this pattern. You can see the PAC getting much better by around D10. Height in AK were a decent amount higher by D10 this run compared to 00z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Barrel of laughs watching the GFS model the Godzilla of an NAO block to gobble up the east coast. Gefs got better at the end. I think guidance overall has been to progressive with MJO stuff. It now looks like it’s more near 135E and a bit west of that. Before it was ticking the dateline. So what we are seeing makes sense in the near term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: This looks like El Nino PAC....a bit skeptical of this....but nice to look at. But even a neutral PAcific is going to be good in this pattern. You can see the PAC getting much better by around D10. Height in AK were a decent amount higher by D10 this run compared to 00z. In my head I’m sort of compromising GEFS and EPS. Which would be pretty good I think as you alluded to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 waahhhhh i didn't get my instant blizzard when the nao went negative!!!!!!! 4 5 12 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This looks like El Nino PAC....a bit skeptical of this....but nice to look at. But even a neutral PAcific is going to be good in this pattern. You can see the PAC getting much better by around D10. Height in AK were a decent amount higher by D10 this run compared to 00z. That's about as bonerific as is gets. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Gefs got better at the end. I think guidance overall has been to progressive with MJO stuff. It now looks like it’s more near 135E and a bit west of that. Before it was ticking the dateline. So what we are seeing makes sense in the near term. We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen. In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14. BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen. In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14. BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions. E24 FTW 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I’ll buy e21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen. In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14. BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions. Yeah I'm not really confident here, but interior areas should not give up regarding 14th. No idea what to make of the 12th...but there is some CAA behind that thing on the 10th...so there is a serviceable airmass should something pop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'm not really confident here, but interior areas should not give up regarding 14th. No idea what to make of the 12th...but there is some CAA behind that thing on the 10th...so there is a serviceable airmass should something pop. Would you say you have the Confidence of something resembling a thawed out/ soggy tater tot 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'm not really confident here, but interior areas should not give up regarding 14th. No idea what to make of the 12th...but there is some CAA behind that thing on the 10th...so there is a serviceable airmass should something pop. GEM/Euro/Ukie are also colder behind 12/10 than GFS is. Prob because their NAO block is not sitting on our face like the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Would you say you have the Confidence of something resembling a thawed out/ soggy tater tot Something that resembles what my kids eat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen. In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14. BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions. How do I order the E24? Is there like a number I can call? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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