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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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5 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Bob you never bought into the period up to the 14’th or so looking good , what do you think of the 15-20’th at this time range if anything (and I realize u were talking about for SE mass )

I think the threat is legit in that timeframe.  I think it's more an interior and elevation event.  

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The other thing to watch is the height tendencies out west. Lower heights again at day 7 there on EPS. I wouldn’t want it much lower than shown. 
For as much shit as the gfs has gotten, I think the EPS has played catchup to the pacific too.

For the record… I don’t mean to actually give the GFS shit ha ha. Just sayn. not speaking for everybody else

Like I said it gave me pause because so much of the forecast system is doing what it’s doing.

You know re the NAO …it’s almost like if you took an NAO appliqué to 30 more years of climate change you might get one that looks that way. It keeps occurring to me to be honest in kind a coveted little muse. 

I just read WPC is extended forecast discussion and they’re talking about the poor continuity and the bad predictability everywhere so seeing this massive continuity swinging around like this I really don’t take any of these runs very seriously including the entire ensemble system of the GFS or the EPS for that matter.

 I’m just trying to rely upon the numerical Teleconnectors and they still flag the 13 14 15

8–10 days might also be a clue too. Lol

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

With all this being said, I still want to drop my draws for the EPS 11-15 day. 

This looks like El Nino PAC....a bit skeptical of this....but nice to look at. But even a neutral PAcific is going to be good in this pattern. You can see the PAC getting much better by around D10. Height in AK were a decent amount higher by D10 this run compared to 00z.

 

 

Dec5_12zEPS348.png

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Barrel of laughs watching the GFS model the Godzilla of an NAO block to gobble up the east coast.

Gefs got better at the end. 
 

I think guidance overall has been to progressive with MJO stuff. It now looks like it’s more near 135E and a bit west of that. Before it was ticking the dateline. So what we are seeing makes sense in the near term. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This looks like El Nino PAC....a bit skeptical of this....but nice to look at. But even a neutral PAcific is going to be good in this pattern. You can see the PAC getting much better by around D10. Height in AK were a decent amount higher by D10 this run compared to 00z.

 

 

Dec5_12zEPS348.png

In my head I’m sort of compromising GEFS and EPS. Which would be pretty good I think as you alluded to. 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This looks like El Nino PAC....a bit skeptical of this....but nice to look at. But even a neutral PAcific is going to be good in this pattern. You can see the PAC getting much better by around D10. Height in AK were a decent amount higher by D10 this run compared to 00z.

 

 

Dec5_12zEPS348.png

That's about as bonerific as is gets.

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14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gefs got better at the end. 
 

I think guidance overall has been to progressive with MJO stuff. It now looks like it’s more near 135E and a bit west of that. Before it was ticking the dateline. So what we are seeing makes sense in the near term. 

We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen.

In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14.

 

 

BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions.

image.png.743536b20f95794a16571d49b95b9bb7.png

 

 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen.

In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14.

 

 

BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions.

image.png.743536b20f95794a16571d49b95b9bb7.png

 

 

E24 FTW

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen.

In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14.

 

 

BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions.

image.png.743536b20f95794a16571d49b95b9bb7.png

 

 

Yeah I'm not really confident here, but interior areas should not give up regarding 14th. No idea what to make of the 12th...but there is some CAA behind that thing on the 10th...so there is a serviceable airmass should something pop. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I'm not really confident here, but interior areas should not give up regarding 14th. No idea what to make of the 12th...but there is some CAA behind that thing on the 10th...so there is a serviceable airmass should something pop. 

Would you say you have the Confidence of something resembling a thawed out/ soggy  tater tot  

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I'm not really confident here, but interior areas should not give up regarding 14th. No idea what to make of the 12th...but there is some CAA behind that thing on the 10th...so there is a serviceable airmass should something pop. 

GEM/Euro/Ukie are also colder behind 12/10 than GFS is. Prob because their NAO block is not sitting on our face like the GFS.

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31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We're looping through unfavorable forcing between now and about 12/10 or maybe even 12/12. Even GFS suite is bringing forcing into a bit more favorable by mid-month. It's a little slower than EPS, but it's probably going to happen.

In the meantime, I don't think anyone should totally sell on 12/12 or 12/14.

 

 

BTW here were the 12/12 individual members.....you can see some absolute whoppers (e3, e18, and e24) in there mixed with mostly nothing. Not a whole lot of "in between" type solutions.

image.png.743536b20f95794a16571d49b95b9bb7.png

 

 

How do I order the E24? Is there like a number I can call?

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