December 2022 Obs/Disc

[George001]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

 

 

Bumps 

The blocking is still there, the epic pattern just got delayed some. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

[brooklynwx99]

lmao ok so again, a met gets excited by using pattern recognition and actual meteorological analysis to determine that there can be a really favorable period later in the month

and others literally just use Murphy's Law to refute it and nothing else. just to preserve their feelings or whatever. no meteorological analysis at all

and now the met gets bumped before the window is even here? what even is that

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is forky saying now 

Forky got forked...

[NorEastermass128]

Pope’s revenge?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What is forky saying now 

I don’t know but hopefully is calling for torch 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Pope’s revenge?

He needs to confess first to the November pattern change sins...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao ok so again, a met gets excited by using pattern recognition and actual meteorological analysis to determine that there can be a really favorable period later in the month

and others literally just use Murphy's Law to refute it and nothing else. just to preserve their feelings or whatever. no meteorological analysis at all

and now the met gets bumped before the window is even here? what even is that

I think it’s all in the semantics . It’s two side of the same coin for the majority of the discussion .

Some are saying “this is why I think this Period looks great ..based on the models at this time frame ” and others are saying “it’s LR so i wouldn’t be that confident in it happening as many hope or as good as it seems, especially with a delay “ and then it’s all a bunch of defensive posts in between harping on one side of a similar coin . One side seems to get emotional the other has been generally out numbered and told to STFU lol I don’t think they are that far apart with what they see , just how they comment on it.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao ok so again, a met gets excited by using pattern recognition and actual meteorological analysis to determine that there can be a really favorable period later in the month

and others literally just use Murphy's Law to refute it and nothing else. just to preserve their feelings or whatever. no meteorological analysis at all

and now the met gets bumped before the window is even here? what even is that

That person is not a met lol

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Pope’s revenge?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao ok so again, a met gets excited by using pattern recognition and actual meteorological analysis to determine that there can be a really favorable period later in the month

and others literally just use Murphy's Law to refute it and nothing else. just to preserve their feelings or whatever. no meteorological analysis at all

and now the met gets bumped before the window is even here? what even is that

Welcome to the:

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That person is not a met lol

he might as well be lmao he knows what he's talking about even if he trolls every now and then

either way my point still stands

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Pope’s revenge?

On what? He sinned in November and never confessed. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

On what? He sinned in November and never confessed. 

The Pope was last seen on route 1 Peabody at the golden banana with a 12 pack . He’s had better days 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think it’s all in the semantics . It’s two side of the same coin for the majority of the discussion .

Some are saying “this is why I think this Period looks great ..based on the models at this time frame ” and others are saying “it’s LR so i wouldn’t be that confident in it happening as many hope “ and then it’s all a bunch of defensive posts in between harping on one side of a similar coin . 

There's been a lot of different versions of poo-pooing so hard to say how to parse them....

1. One version was obsessing over the timing. Like if it didn't flip by Dec 8th, it was a huge bust. "we're going to lose most of early December!!!"

2. Another version was "it's a horrible pattern for the next 3 weeks". Not sure where that came other than "Feels" from but it's been posted in this thread.

3. The most reasonable pessimists IMHO have been the ones probably along the coast who understand their climo sucks in early December anyway and were worried about arctic cold being available...so that when the model guidance ticked somewhat warmer, it was game over for them even with a strong NAO block. This shouldn't really change anyone's perception in the interior, but for the coast I can see the worry. I think some of the worry has been a little overblown though even along the coast. If you get a high in the right area, even a relatively marginal airmass will prob snow to the coast except maybe right on the beaches.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

^We are glad you are still on board .^

I think given everyone’s time on the board they can differentiate between  the occasional troll or newbie ignorance and realize most folks Questioning LR are and were just trying to articulate  skepticism on being confident on a LR good look , esp after it was pushed back . Not an obsession just more of a persistence that they felt needed repeating since it wasn’t acknowledged Without the usual “shut up , “dumb”  or “your an idiot“  reply’s lol . I think most people genuinely see roughly the same thing . Some just post more optimisticly  about the LR, some post saying “hey let’s not really be too confident now , it’s not getting inside 10 days , so ya it can happen , but let’s see it get inside that window “ . Again an occasional troll post can be discarded as non sense 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's been a lot of different versions of poo-pooing so hard to say how to parse them....

1. One version was obsessing over the timing. Like if it didn't flip by Dec 8th, it was a huge bust. "we're going to lose most of early December!!!"

2. Another version was "it's a horrible pattern for the next 3 weeks". Not sure where that came other than "Feels" from but it's been posted in this thread.

3. The most reasonable pessimists IMHO have been the ones probably along the coast who understand their climo sucks in early December anyway and were worried about arctic cold being available...so that when the model guidance ticked somewhat warmer, it was game over for them even with a strong NAO block. This shouldn't really change anyone's perception in the interior, but for the coast I can see the worry. I think some of the worry has been a little overblown though even along the coast. If you get a high in the right area, even a relatively marginal airmass will prob snow to the coast except maybe right on the beaches.

I've been arguing right along that it never looked like a frigid pattern. People only hear what they want to.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12z euro does look more amped than it has in a bit to me for the 12/9-10 deal Thou it may just be a closer miss 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GFS Op continues to frequently show a PNA that is like -5, albeit this run it did not, it found a new way in the 11-15 to mess stuff up as was said above the Pac was not that bad although you get the impression D14-16 if it ran to D20 it would blast that ridge across the entire US and go zonal

That’s exactly what I was thinking… and then zonal tends to precede ridging. We’d be heading for a 2015 Christmas as one possibility in extrapolating that extended GFS. 

Man I thought for sure this was just a one GFS sort of aberrant run… likely more meaningless against the weight of everything else. But then I looked at the weight of everything else. Jesus Christ.

Some 70% of GEFs ballast agrees on cutting 13.14.15 as a deep low, -NAO or not. Out of nowhere, it’s planetary scaled continuity break - but it doesn’t fit the NAO hemisphere climatology  

I guess it could happen…  I mean if we think about it the models can’t produce solutions that are physically impossible unless they’re cartoons.

From what I’m seeing in the series though is that the Pacific is the problem. In fact for the last several days it has been meandering east and west with the planetary wave spacing …sometimes we get like yesterday and there’s more western North American presentation and the models immediately ignite massive storm system because of the incredible potential this pattern has downstream or eastern North America.

This run en masse went so far the other direction it should strain believability.  But it’s not like one or two members and the operational run here you’re talking about the entire GFS machinery. So much it’s sending a nonlinear wave function that’s encouraging the NAO to back load southwest towards the great lakes and we end up actually borderline turning this into an Indian Summer… Wah wah waah   

I mean the old mantra about continuity break 101 means you don’t really believe it and all that jazz is true but when the entire forecast system bullies that it all at once - whole scale - its enough to give one pause.

I guess wait on the EPS and we’ll see if the euro and all that  

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That’s exactly what I was thinking… and then zonal tends to precede ridging. We’d be heading for a 2015 Christmas as one possibility in extrapolating that extended GFS. 

Man I thought for sure this was just a one GFS sort of aberrant run… likely more meaningless against the weight of everything else. But then I looked at the weight of everything else. Jesus Christ.

Some 70% of GEFs ballast agrees on cutting 13.14.15 as a deep low, -NSO or not. Out of nowhere, it’s planetary scaled continuity break - but it doesn’t fit the NAO hemisphere climatology  

I guess it could happen…  I mean if we think about it the models can’t produce solutions that are physically impossible unless they’re cartoons.

From what I’m seeing in the series though is that the Pacific is the problem. In fact for the last several days it has been meandering east and west with the planetary wave spacing …sometimes we get like yesterday and there’s more western North American presentation and the models immediately ignite massive storm system because of the incredible potential this pattern has downstream or eastern North America.

This run en masse went so far the other direction but it does strain believability.  But it’s not like one or two members in the operational run here you’re talking about the entire GFS machinery. So much it’s sending a nonlinear wave function that’s encouraging the NAO to back load southwest towards the great lakes and we end up actually borderline turning this into an Indian Summer… Wah wah waah   

I mean the old mantra about continuity break 101 means you don’t really believe it and all that jazz is true but when the entire forecast system bullies that it all at once - whole scale - its enough to give one pause.

I guess wait on the EPS and we’ll see if the euro and all that  

 

 

I will say one thing, and that is that I am sure as hell sick of la nina.

Good riddance-

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

12z euro does look more amped than it has in a bit to me for the 12/9-10 deal Thou it may just be a closer miss 

Mmmk I’m done following this one lol . Poofy no system 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will say one thing, and that is that I am sure as hell sick of la nina.

Good riddance-

It has been a very coupled fall into the early cold season so far…

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Mmmk I’m done following this one lol . Poofy no system 

Still has an outside shot, but you need to really thread the needle to make it interesting....if that shortwave rides up over the ridge really far north, it will then maybe be in decent position when it gets shunted southeast. But my hedge at the moment is this is a whiff.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Mmmk I’m done following this one lol . Poofy no system 

I’m kicking myself because I had a statement in that thread I started that my sense was that that would get damped out, 9.10.  No ballz no glory.

But I took it down because I thought it was just getting too confusing to logistically handle all that shit and also I wasn’t sure if it was just going to get rattled around south of Nova Scotia and affect the evolution of the latter events and so forth.

The whole everything now is like an etch and sketch erasing lol

[ORH_wxman]

Euro trying to focus on the follow-up wave like the GGEM was doing for 12/12. Looks a bit too flat/weak this run to get us, but may need to follow on subsequent runs if it comes in stronger.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro trying to focus on the follow-up wave like the GGEM was doing for 12/12. Looks a bit too flat/weak this run to get us, but may need to follow on subsequent runs if it comes in stronger.

I wish they’d bring back the model diagnostic division. 

ever strike anyone as interesting coincidence that they took that down around when they started clicking out new versions of the GFS like Pez candy lol

[ORH_wxman]

LOL at the difference in the blocking between GFS and Euro at day 6

 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

LOL at the difference in the blocking between GFS and Euro at day 6

 

for some reason the GFS is completely ignoring the effect of the Atlantic wave breaking on the block and instead shunts it east. meanwhile, the ECMWF properly develops it as warmer air advects into the Davis Strait

it plays right into the GFS's progressive bias. the ECMWF's evolution of the block makes way more intuitive sense IMO

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

LOL at the difference in the blocking between GFS and Euro at day 6

 

I was just looking at that ha ha. It looks like it takes the entire hemisphere of atmosphere and just bodily shifts Southeast 1000 miles like everywhere unilaterally and dimensionally

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just looking at that ha ha. It looks like it takes the entire hemisphere of atmosphere and just bodily shifts Southeast 1000 miles like everywhere unilaterally and dimensionally

Yeah....whats shifting the block from Baffin to Quebec City amongst friends?

[ORH_wxman]

Tip might have some additional fodder for his 12/13-14 thread on this run.