40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Yes you may have had a pretty excellent initial outlook but after sipping some board enthusiasm per model runs that transitioned things earlier I’m sure you altered that based on the info at hand . Now that info has gone back to support your initial ideas more . That is my take , wrong ? On the whole you were less enthusiastic about the 8-15’th period than many here were (and That simply is clear if anyone has the courage to read the first 5 pages of this thread . Even last week, I said the threat period began AFTER THE 10TH, so this is for the most part valid. Maybe I should have left out the mention of a potential colder than initially assessed outcome for the month December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Would you say or recommend or even maybe log off now and check back in late this weekend to see if anything might be showing up? Absolutely. Will I do it? Probably not lol I know what you are driving at....hahaha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That period around the 13-14th still holds big potential over the interior. Forget anything prior. Hoping I can get something here.. so far pretty meh but things are looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I think most understand Tip..but if it’s not showing snow over most of SNE on modeling, the masses think there’s nothing there…even if it is 8-10 days from now. the antics and the back-and-forth unrelenting replaying the same tapes over and over again nonsense directly denies that is true to any objective observer. they don’t appear to be. The constant unrelenting back-and-forth replaying the same content does not appear adult and lucid about this material, not to any objective observer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 lol - the long range OP runs definitely have an emotional sway to this board, whether or not some like to admit it. Quickly looking, there's still a lot of potential here, especially for interior and NNE. Wouldn't be shocked if we are tracking a legit winter storm (or 2) for many in the next few days, targeting that mid-month range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Did Tip's storm thread disappear? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Did Tip's storm thread disappear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The low here was 20. Currently it is 45 that’s a pretty impressive recovery for this time of year spanning just 2 1/2 hours 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 GFS feeling the crunch for Dec 10th....makes sense though as it was an outlier for the past 3-4 cycles. Now starting to trend toward other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I have been saying (as well as others here) that we would have to wait until after the 15th through the end of the month since last week and I don't see any reason to stray from that now. the pattern hadn't established itself before then, and models often rush pattern changes by a few days, so I don't get what all the panic is about both here and on social media. it's just not wanting to wait this was the pattern for two weeks leading up to BDB, which amounted to some cutters and fish storms... people were freaking out then too. look at the Pacific! look familiar? we just have to be patient. disclaimer: i know that some here got skunked by that storm, but that was more of a matter of bad luck than anything else. was still a beast of a storm here are some snapshots from December 2010: there was a raging cutter on 12/13: cold and dry with an absolute garbage Pacific on 12/16: a storm going OTS, leaving us cold and dry with a deep trough off the WC on 12/21: and then a historic coastal storm 5 days later on 12/26: I'm sure the melts were of epic proportions back then and everyone looked a bit silly afterwards for not staying the course. not gonna lie, I probably would've started to get a bit frustrated myself 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The low here was 20. Currently it is 45 that’s a pretty impressive recovery for this time of year spanning just 2 1/2 hours Up to 43.4 from 19.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I have been saying (as well as others here) that we would have to wait until after the 15th through the end of the month since last week and I don't see any reason to stray from that now. the pattern hadn't established itself before then, and models often rush pattern changes by a few days, so I don't get what all the panic is about both here and on social media. it's just not wanting to wait this was the pattern for two weeks leading up to BDB, which amounted to some cutters and fish storms... people were freaking out then too. look at the Pacific! look familiar? we just have to be patient. disclaimer: i know that some here got skunked by that storm, but that was more of a matter of bad luck than anything else. was still a beast of a storm here are some snapshots from December 2010: there was a raging cutter on 12/13: cold and dry with an absolute garbage Pacific on 12/16: a storm going OTS, leaving us cold and dry with a deep trough off the WC on 12/21: and then a historic coastal storm 5 days later on 12/26: I'm sure the melts were of epic proportions back then and everyone looked a bit silly afterwards for not staying the course. not gonna lie, I probably would've started to get a bit frustrated myself Great post.....totally agree. I know its an el nino, but I mentioned January to February 1969 as another example of blocking patterns taking a while of pay dividends. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Great post.....totally agree. I know its an el nino, but I mentioned January to February 1969 as another example of blocking patterns taking a while of pay dividends. Every pattern has examples of taking a while to produce or producing right away. This one is no different. Models did rush the retrograding of the SE ridge by about 4 days....normally a fairly trivial error. If it weren't early season when everyone is predictably impatient, the melts would probably be about half of what we're seeing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Every pattern has examples of taking a while to produce or producing right away. This one is no different. Models did rush the retrograding of the SE ridge by about 4 days....normally a fairly trivial error. If it weren't early season when everyone is predictably impatient, the melts would probably be about half of what we're seeing. I honestly haven’t seen any melts. Like not even one. Worry and doubt doesn’t equate to melts. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Also as a reminder….it’s December 5th. Almost all years feature 40s for highs, low 30s for lows here in sne. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 I know it won't be right, but kinda like the look of the CMC for Sunday into Monday. That would at least yield some frozen precip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 12z GGEM has a significantly different evolution for weekend/early next week....it has a little PV lobe pinned to our north and sort of focuses more on the follow up wave on 12/12 instead of 12/10. It has 12/10 initially pretty far north but then gets put through the meat grinder and we see more action from the follow up 12/12 wave. It also has Tip's 12/14 storm as a SWFE/front ender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 GFS is atrocious. Lets hope that it's wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS feeling the crunch for Dec 10th....makes sense though as it was an outlier for the past 3-4 cycles. Now starting to trend toward other guidance. I wonder if we can get some mood stuff just like in the air on Monday. that is a really long fetch coming off big polar high. we’re gonna have a nice Northeast flow so it’ll probably be too warm obviously over east zones down toward the Cape and southeastern mass …but inland up the Worcester hills if we can get some kind of stuff in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: The low here was 20. Currently it is 45 that’s a pretty impressive recovery for this time of year spanning just 2 1/2 hours 42F off 20F at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is atrocious. Lets hope that it's wrong. Nah your melting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is atrocious. Lets hope that it's wrong. Weenies in Taunton closing their garage doors and preparing to turn the ignition over for the long nap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is atrocious. Lets hope that it's wrong. The complete reversion back to what it was doing two days ago… It seems to be fighting the NAO exertion like it almost just loses it from time to time no times. I just think it’s not handling it well. None of the models are practically well probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is atrocious. Lets hope that it's wrong. Irony is that the PAC is looking pretty decent by D10 on that 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is atrocious. Lets hope that it's wrong. 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nah your melting No worries. Everything is awesommmeeeeee. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I wonder if we can get some mood stuff just like in the air on Monday. that is a really long fetch coming off big polar high. we’re gonna have a nice Northeast flow so it’ll probably be too warm obviously over east zones down toward the Cape and southeastern mass …but inland up the Worcester hills if we can get some kind of stuff in the air Yeah a lot of guidance is showing that. Moisture is trapped mostly below 800mb in that look, but with 850 temps getting into the -6C or -7C range, there is likely going to be snow growth in that lower level, so could be some steady SN- inland if it sets up like that. But obviously the models seem to be really struggling with that entire evolution, so hard to take anything without a grain of salt at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is atrocious. Lets hope that it's wrong. At least the massive cutter grinch storm is before Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: No worries. Everything is awesommmeeeeee. Someone is melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The following statements for comic relief so don’t take it as trolling but I’m looking at the Gfs’ December 18 depiction of 585 Heights over Boston and I’m laughing at the prospect of any kind of snow haha. Jesus h Christ not to mention a “favorable pattern”. Run for your lives 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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