ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie That’s even more suppressed. South of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s even more suppressed. South of DC. Cmc had a little compromise on that system or an extension of some moisture wrapping in toward interior E CT over toward Foxboro to the tune of a few inches (I realize it won’t happen like that but I was at least encouraged the model had a airmass that supported snow there ) Gfs turned what initially look to me like a no chance (cutter) 17’th storm into a late sort of transfer / coastal hugger that buried ski resorts in la la land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 24/18 at midnight. Pretty much right on for December in NW MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Chilly 25 in Bedford Ma. I need a snow gun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 19 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Gfs turned what initially look to me like a no chance (cutter) 17’th storm into a late sort of transfer / coastal hugger that buried ski resorts in la la land Signing in for duty on that GFS run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 22.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 12/9 is a waste of time for me IMO...its either going to be mainly rain or too suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Analogs I am coming up with for Dec 20-24 are: 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995, 1975, 1973, 1963*, 1952, 1950. (Dec 20-24 is rigid, make it Dec 16-29 those years). 1) Dec 21-29+PNA, 2) Dec 10-20-NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12/9 is a waste of time for me IMO...its either going to be mainly rain or too suppressed. Ya for Exteme NE mass it would be a small miracle for it to somehow flip to snow and get advisory or better . We all know I’ll drive the Corsica to 2k in hillbilly township Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 12/9 is a waste of time for me IMO...its either going to be mainly rain or too suppressed. I’m still keeping an eye on it but I like my chances for the 13th better. The airmass is better by then and the blocking is in a better position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Euro whiffs the first threat but the h5 looks great for the second threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 The surface looks odd, there are 3 lows. I would think they would combine into one big low. The location of the rain snow line is very reasonable though considering the airmass and ocean temps. Interior areas have a really good shot with this threat, those of us closer to the coast I think will have some ptype issues. Maybe something like March 2017 or the Feb storm a couple years ago where my area got 8 inches, and 20 min NW got a foot and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 20/19F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 That has ice storm written all over it for this area. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 21 this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Worst possible outcome. Just give me suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Cool depiction of an OE band on the 6z GFS on the E/NE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Had 17 degrees at the house this morning in Westfield, 20 at work. Bob on WTIC going all in confused for the upcoming weekend forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 Outside of the GFS, not much supporting precip for 12/9-10. Id expect GFS to come considerably more suppressed today with that one. Still a chance there’s a compromise on models where we thread the needle and get a bit of snow but I’m expecting a whiff at this point. Sig for 12/13-14 is pretty solid on ensemble guidance so we’ll just have to wait and see how that one evolves. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Outside of the GFS, not much supporting precip for 12/9-10. Id expect GFS to come considerably more suppressed today with that one. Still a chance there’s a compromise on models where we thread the needle and get a bit of snow but I’m expecting a whiff at this point. Sig for 12/13-14 is pretty solid on ensemble guidance so we’ll just have to wait and see how that one evolves. rather uninspiring op and ensemble runs overnight .. Hopefully 12z runs enhance the look for the 13/14th period.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 49 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: GWDLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 5 hours ago, George001 said: I’m still keeping an eye on it but I like my chances for the 13th better. The airmass is better by then and the blocking is in a better position. I won't be surprised if we end up having to wait until past mid-month.....the return on these blocking patterns is often greater down the line when its weakening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: rather uninspiring op and ensemble runs overnight .. Hopefully 12z runs enhance the look for the 13/14th period.. How inspiring would you expect it to be for threats over 10 days out? The 10th-15th is fair game, but its more of a bonus period IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 18 useless degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 Just whipping through the EPS, it looks to me like the real higher-end potential is after about the 20th and towards Xmas, as the shift westward in forcing begins to manifest in the form of some ridging out west as the block also begins to mature. That period into January is when all hell could break lose. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: GWDLT Entering prime icer season. From now until MLK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 5, 2022 Author Share Posted December 5, 2022 I'll probably do a post tomorrow introducing that higher end threat period in a general sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 5, 2022 Share Posted December 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll probably do a post tomorrow introducing that higher end threat period in a general sense. Tip has one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now