December 2022 Obs/Disc

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

He’ll freezing over apparently … cuz -3 SD NAO under a -4 SD AO is somehow not enough 

Don't believe it myself. When was the last time you saw a 518 5h at the BM produce rain inland SNE

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

He’ll freezing over apparently … cuz -3 SD NAO under a -4 SD AO is somehow not enough 

Was just wondering lol . Most runs of that system (wether they were more surpressed or amped ) have a notable surge of moisture coming in off the ocean just as The precip envelope from the system cutting East across Pennsylvania starts to spread its precip shield over us . I assumed that west warm moving surge of light precip from the East (distant ocean storm or whatever) was also responsible for maybe torching the BL 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Don't believe it myself. When was the last time you saw a 518 5h at the BM produce rain inland SNE

Maybe a couple years ago in March , when we had 34 degree rain , nor’easter and deep easterly flow and it snowed along western SNE border and hammered Catskills , and we had like .5-1c 850’s and a bit of a torched BL 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Maybe a couple years ago in March , when we had 34 degree rain and it snowed along western SNE border and hammered Catskills 

Link?

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He and Scooter think they aren’t on the water . It’s a totally different world down and out there .

How many deep?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Link?

Nah , but I have pics from hunter mountain . I was more seeing if you remember it , I could  be wrong On the heights not being 518 

There were a few nor’easters that march , maybe 2019 ?

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hell freezing over apparently … cuz -3 SD NAO under a -4 SD AO is somehow not enough 

I suspect this will be a theme in the future 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nah , but I have pics from hunter mountain . I was more seeing if you remember it , I could  be wrong On the heights not being 518 

There were a few nor’easters that march , maybe 2019 ?

2018 but there was not a 518 ULL under us. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 1.7 on 12/8 looks good. No idea where the 8.5 on 12/7 came from. 

 

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think he is confusing the 8.5” from 2019. Cuz 2020 was a pretty big one. And last year(21) had just that small couple inches. There definitely wasn’t 8.5 last December. 

 

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably 2019. 

 

37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya that’s what I think.

 

Thanks guys. I think I found the error. It’s on the New England snow site but not my personal data sheet—and the personal sheet has 8.5” on 1/7/22. My note says that was a coastal that significantly overperformed in CT. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I suspect this will be a theme in the future 

FYI gents and gals I started a more focused thread re 13.14.15 … I did pay homage to 9.10 

I think 9.10. is one or the other, with regard to cold air… If the surge comes in from the east and it’s cold enough for that to be oes and grits and so forth the storm is probably going south. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

For snow bingo 3 5 and 15 are big hits on GEFS for 9-11’th system for either CNE/NNE or interior . Ens #15 shows you how to thread the needle for E mass into NH/ Maine 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah, 1/7/22 was a good one. That time was a blur for me. 

On 1/7/2022 at 7:36 AM, CoastalWx said:

Won’t you take me to....pound me town....

Wont you take make to....pooounndd meee tooowwnnnn....

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, 1/7/22 was a good one. That time was a blur for me. 

 

That was a great event. Nice band from sctrl CT to Boston and just south. 

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Middle finger into YBY

 

 

In all seriousness. There are going to be multiple shots at something as has been mentioned previously. 

That's hideous verbatim for my hood. I mean, if that were to actually play out, with Virginia Beach and Martha's Vineyard getting a foot while I get a nice mule kick in the nards, I'd just have to accept that there is a god and he hates me. Thankfully it'll be totally different next run.

[kdxken]

Rain or snow the weather looks like ass for the next week or so.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He and Scooter think they aren’t on the water . It’s a totally different world down and out there .

 

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta agree with Kev here, as much as it pains me

 

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea Tblizz is like 20 miles to Narry Bay 30 to ATLANTIC and 30 to Buzzards just swallowed by Marine. Kev is 40 plus miles from the sound and 50 from the Atlantic 

I definitely don’t live on the water. We can easily escape marine influence here in a lot of events.

 

Kevin is obviously further inland than I am, but he’s acting as if it’s a night and day difference, it is not.

Beer is Beer though, so it is what it is.

[Volcanic Winter]

Difference between coastal and “immediate coast.” I live about 10-15 miles inland from the ocean down here in NJ, but I currently have 26 on my Tempest relative to the ~40 it looks like the immediate shoreline has. 

Doesn’t help if the storm track is far inland only, but I do well often when the immediate coast is rain. It does seem to make a difference.
 

[George001]

To everyone worried about thermals, I wouldn’t worry about it as long as the low location is good and the low is really strong. The low can create its own cold air, I’ve had people tell me this doesn’t happen but I’ve seen storms where it works out. March 7th 2018 was heavy rain for several hours where I live, but the low bombed out and dynamically cooled the column. The initial airmass sucked, but due to the low creating it’s own cold air via dynamical cooling I ended up getting around 8 inches of snow, with areas NW getting nearly 2 feet. That is what we will be relying on for the first threat. It’s low probability it will strengthen enough to create enough cold air to give significant snow, but I wouldn’t rule it out. The second and third threats have a better shot.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

 

 

Thanks guys. I think I found the error. It’s on the New England snow site but not my personal data sheet—and the personal sheet has 8.5” on 1/7/22. My note says that was a coastal that significantly overperformed in CT. 

 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

To everyone worried about thermals, I wouldn’t worry about it as long as the low location is good and the low is really strong. The low can create its own cold air, I’ve had people tell me this doesn’t happen but I’ve seen storms where it works out. March 7th 2018 was heavy rain for several hours where I live, but the low bombed out and dynamically cooled the column. The initial airmass sucked, but due to the low creating it’s own cold air via dynamical cooling I ended up getting around 8 inches of snow, with areas NW getting nearly 2 feet. That is what we will be relying on for the first threat. It’s low probability it will strengthen enough to create enough cold air to give significant snow, but I wouldn’t rule it out. The second and third threats have a better shot.

I have no idea how this blocking/storm situation will shake out and hopefully everyone enjoys something out of it, but early/mid Dec is way different from early March WRT marine influence near the coast. Water temp down here is still at 50 and Boston Harbor is at 47. March can be 8-10 degrees colder. It's very difficult to get a heavy all snow event near the coast this time of year and winds are onshore. Early March is way easier since the waters are still cold from the winter. If you can get even 10-15 miles of land to cool down the onshore flow it can make all the difference. Even here on LI from the LI Sound there can be a crazy microclimate where immediately on the LI Sound beaches there is a rain/snow mix or nonaccumulating snow but 2-3 miles inland heavy accumulating snow this time of year when there's a NE or ENE wind. There are numerous early Dec storms where near the NJ shore there is little accumulation and the temps there are stuck in the upper 30s/40s but not far inland west of the coastal front, way higher accums. But if winds can stay offshore and heavy snow, different story.

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

Thanks. That was a much needed snowfall. I was burying my dad that week. 

Hopefully my house will be good for snow. I'm right near the Manchester line (again) so as far away from the CT River as I can get in town.  

[George001]

13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have no idea how this blocking/storm situation will shake out and hopefully everyone enjoys something out of it, but early/mid Dec is way different from early March WRT marine influence near the coast. Water temp down here is still at 50 and Boston Harbor is at 47. March can be 8-10 degrees colder. It's very difficult to get a heavy all snow event near the coast this time of year and winds are onshore. Early March is way easier since the waters are still cold from the winter. If you can get even 10-15 miles of land to cool down the onshore flow it can make all the difference. Even here on LI from the LI Sound there can be a crazy microclimate where immediately on the LI Sound beaches there is a rain/snow mix or nonaccumulating snow but 2-3 miles inland heavy accumulating snow this time of year when there's a NE or ENE wind. There are numerous early Dec storms where near the NJ shore there is little accumulation and the temps there are stuck in the upper 30s/40s but not far inland west of the coastal front, way higher accums. But if winds can stay offshore and heavy snow, different story.

That’s a good point, climo is more hostile now than it is in early March especially for the coast. Even my area which isn’t right on the coast has done a lot better in March than December lately. December climo isn’t favorable to begin with but It feels like climate change has made it even less favorable. The warming oceans is a double edged sword, it can help storms bomb out and give crazy amounts of snow if the airmass is cold enough, but when the airmass is marginal it makes it a lot harder, even a bit of onshore winds and the coast is cooked.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs rolling , Let’s see if dopamine drip turned on or off 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs looks more amped as it approaches Illinois for 10’th system , there is a decent banana high situated over the top of it so that should keep it interesting 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs looks more amped as it approaches Illinois for 10’th system , there is a decent banana high situated over the top of it so that should keep it interesting 

No other model is amped like the gfs

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No other model is amped like the gfs

Ya , I mean I wanna see it stay amped and I’m hoping euro can move to it to keep things worth tracking to me 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya , I mean I wanna see it stay amped and I’m hoping euro can move to it to keep things worth tracking to me 

Cmc

[MJO812]

This block is messing with the models 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is def an outlier with the Dec 9-10-11 system. Even compared to NAM. You can see how much more suppressed the flow is even on that model near the end. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is def an outlier with the Dec 9-10-11 system. Even compared to NAM. You can see how much more suppressed the flow is even on that model near the end. 

Ukie