STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Did you go pro it? I bought one, but I don’t have it hooked up , so far I’m just glad me and my gf’s 9 year old made it down smoothly from top 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Nice pair of H5s. Cpickles approved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Next weekend storm whiffs way south on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Model chaos as expected 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Model chaos as expected Yep Euro is trending south with the 12th storm now. Much better euro run if you like wintry weather. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yep Euro is trending south with the 12th storm now. Much better euro run if you like wintry weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: You're on point... The MJO's behavior is (likely) because it is/has been in destructive interference against the La Nina basin footprint. The La Nina has been remarkably well -coupled this autumn. Personally, ( full disclosure ) I was optimistic that would not be the case (the La Nina part of it). Ha. It would be more loosely coupled, which is not unprecedented over the last 10 years of varying ENSO states ( much to the chagrin of those that are heavily ENSO reliant). The recent decadal history of that was a hopeful trend that we would not have this longitudinal flow structure coming into western N/A. It wasn't just that ...there is a growing body of transition season behavioral evidence for seasonal lapsing. We have observed early/late cool snaps capably of harboring actual snow events, as early as Octobers and as late as Mays, going back to 2000. This has - more or less to be determined causally - been coinciding with the acceleration of climate changing during these last 20 years. Whether that is so or not, a statistical oddity in the least, but it also played into the idea above. If seasonal lapse was causing W/NE N/A ridging early, while (perhaps) La Nina were vague --> ..etc. Neither seemed to materialize per that hope - I mean... it wasn't an 'expectation,' it really was hoping. Ah well... There is a statistical bases for 'early performing' La Nina winters. It's perhaps related to the fact that ENSO signals tend to decouple more so during summers, for obvious reasons related to planetary relaxation of gradient turning off triggers/dispersion mechanics...etc. So that does provide a narrow window for late Novie to early Jan ... but it's not dependable. It's just adding a little. That's not doing too well either LOL. I personally hope we can get into enough of a decent pacific so we can at least have a few opportunities this winter instead of the petferbial chasing unicorns all winter. It's somewhat ok now because winter technically isn't here, but we don't want to be singing this same old song and dance a month from now wondering where winter is lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yeah...detecting a primitive coalesce attempt on the 13.14.15 period - it was one of the original assessment intervals from last week. probably be a thread in-coming later, if anyone is interested? I feel it's worth it for the fact that the rudimentary canvas in place as is/has been well covered, while now subtle Pacific changes showing up in the EPS/GEFs.. Almost immediately we see this illustration materialize in operational, with all three flagging moderate to major cyclogen from the Del Mar to CC region. Sorry, that is not a mere coincident series/converged guidance'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: what the hell even is this Witches teats with a migraine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 EPS is improved with the weekend system sharper vort as well as a stronger HP... there should be some good members in here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Well...it is interesting, as is that time-frame in general. It's still too far away to get excited how's Tip said it is a period of interest. Patience is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Check this out. I went back on the EPS several days ago. These are valid for 6z Saturday coming up. LOL. The west coast could not be any different as modeled. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Basically we need the PNA to be less hostile and that block has to retrograde more. You can see the block also is elongated like what I alluded to yesterday. Fortunately the 11-15 day looked better at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Basically we need the PNA to be less hostile and that block has to retrograde more. You can see the block also is elongated like what I alluded to yesterday. Fortunately the 11-15 day looked better at 12z. people are gonna like that one lmao 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: people are gonna like that one lmao Lol the 11-15 day has looked good for about 2 weeks now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Euro whiffs with the first storm but looks great for the 2nd one on the 13th. I’m interested to see what the EPS says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Check this out. I went back on the EPS several days ago. These are valid for 6z Saturday coming up. LOL. The west coast could not be any different as modeled. The one thing I have noticed the last 48 hours is that while the Pac still looks meh 12/10-12/14 the SER is noticeably flatter or more of TN Valley/S Plains ridge which depending where you are in the NE/MA varies how you feel on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Don’t kill the messenger, I’m just sayin’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don’t kill the messenger, I’m just sayin’ It’s better than looking worse! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Doesn't get below freezing until Christmas. https://mobile.twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/1599464710008471552 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, kdxken said: Doesn't get below freezing until Christmas. https://mobile.twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/1599464710008471552 It’s the gfs so it’s probably wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 anyway, the EPS remains very nice looking from the threat on the 12th onward 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah...detecting a primitive coalesce attempt on the 13.14.15 period - it was one of the original assessment intervals from last week. probably be a thread in-coming later, if anyone is interested? I feel it's worth it for the fact that the rudimentary canvas in place as is/has been well covered, while now subtle Pacific changes showing up in the EPS/GEFs.. Almost immediately we see this illustration materialize in operational, with all three flagging moderate to major cyclogen from the Del Mar to CC region. Sorry, that is not a mere coincident series/converged guidance'. Fire it up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 hours ago, greenmtnwx said: Again I just started my opinion in a post that had nothing to do with him and he called me a “puke”? That’s ok? That’s why I fired back. Yea, of course its too much. Most of us know each other so it isn't a big deal. Nothing personal...sometimes I just sense an annoying kind of tendency to search for the easiest path to get a rise out of folks, like a few other guys on here. Again, nothing personal...just more of a shot at your forum mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Check this out. I went back on the EPS several days ago. These are valid for 6z Saturday coming up. LOL. The west coast could not be any different as modeled. Yea, that's what kills the first several days of the post 12/10 period for alot of folks...block is inhibited on the western limb, where it matters, and the west coast takes on a full latitude trough type of look. That's not a deal breaker....just more of a nuisance that delays things. But these types of patterns out west were planned for in my conceptualization, which is why I explicitly stated that the mid atl likely waits until January to cash in big time, and white xmas along the SNE coast is more dubious...inland SNE and of course NNE good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 This is not some silver bullet that will torpedo the winter, but rather the difference between this year and 1995-1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don’t kill the messenger, I’m just sayin’ Ha it's true. On the good side the GEFS has improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Lol the 11-15 day has looked good for about 2 weeks now The EPS has been atrocious, especially on the PAC forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 I want to play a game......someone tell me how much snow Boston received this month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I want to play a game......someone tell me how much snow Boston received this month? Looks like Feb ‘69. So like 39 and change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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