MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Few threats to watch mid month on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 I would permanently retire from Wxobs if this was a rainstorm. No way 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Winding in another rainer at d12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I would permanently retire from Wxobs if this was a rainstorm. No way It’s real and it’s spectacular 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Few threats to watch mid month on the GFS Regardless of what happens the rest of December, if we get 3 wound up coastals, dropping over a foot of rain. There will be melts of historical proportions, even from the most resilient posters. It seems as though the GFS has become the new Dr. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I would permanently retire from Wxobs if this was a rainstorm. No way It’s all fantasy, but too much Atlantic perineum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Oh m g ...I just saw that GFS serious.... ha HA hahhahahahaha God, that's beautiful. Three moderate ( if not more) nor'easters thrash the region in rain, during a -3 SD NAO. I'm a Science Fiction author, I'm writing my first 3 chapters of that story with that occurrence, as a kind of sneaking attribution case study for CC. You just create the fiction of it, and let the wise reader wonder if that's where you're going. muah hahahaha. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Winding in another rainer at d12. Looping the 850mb temps, that’s a classic strong block look lol. Today is the coldest day of that 16-day run lol. Shades of a block. Maine just warm throughout… warmer than DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s real and it’s spectacular It's fantasy and it's yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s real and it’s spectacular That's utterly flawless aloft, that structure. Yeah, in more analytic terms ( I'm just yankin on the previous post...), it's very unlikely that the mid level heights would fall to that depth and we'd stay that wet. Didn't Chris just discuss the "intent" of this model's recent upgrade, to correct bloated QPF under snow columns? Hmm. Interesting. I almost wonder ... did they fix one thing by breaking something else. I remember that system in 2017 March, that had a problem with cold sector QPF being terribly managed with 39/31 in 3" total rain ... I recall a lot of anticipation that maybe a better wet bulb reality would make that more snow - what actually happened was 33/32 cat paws and cold rain, but still... it's not like this model has always had really good BL thermodynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 what the hell even is this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what the hell even is this 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what the hell even is this Nice pair of H5s. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: what the hell even is this Exotic blocking event ... to use George's vernacular, historic in nature. Whether we are destined to this becoming real or not, this type of extremness might be creating panoply of oddly handled (co-mingling) metrics? Like concurrent 531 dm, 5 contoured closed -4 SD ... 1978 beating 500 mb black hole, with saturated 850 mb temperatures that warm underneath. Wrong. First of all, that is almost thermodynamically impossible. The saturation vapor pressure of thickness that low won't allow a saturation in liquid form, so it makes it very dubious that the undercarriage could sustain that layer profile. The pseudo-adiabatic gradient would become too exotic to be supported. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 K, little pop quiz see who can answer this correctly. what is the main perhaps telling and important difference in this solution as it pertains to the handling east of Chicago - and yes, ...this is bordering on a trick question to really test the knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If it’s not going to snow let’s get some flood and wind damage. Ok Kevin 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 49 minutes ago, dendrite said: Good place to start. We can always go higher. is that 6 ft. of snow in Central Delaware? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 man...overload of eye candy and talk-about cinema available across the pantheon of movie theaters this mid day. lol - this is awesome... That GGEM solution... really really needs to go on thru the next 18 hours. That is a crime letting that sucker stop on that frame. haha. That's heading for NESDIS rating of about a 20, on a scale of 1 to 6(?). You can see it at 500 mb, that jet max isn't even total, where the DPVA is located in the positive aspect of the trough... There are 125kt winds diving/rounding the base. The 500mb gradient over MIA is perfect.... lower than 582dm/light winds. Zip inhibition for digging, so ALL those wind momentum get conserved coming around, within the trough structure and no absorbed by the surrounding planetary medium. = DEATH. period, that is over the top like no one's business and is not some boner vision -that's what this model is doing... sorry. It is. The trough axis is shifting E while decelerating ...such that it's going to become something never seen before. Period. Gotta love the GGEM ( ) model. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 As expected ensembles are tamer but I think some have some wintry members in there 12-14th or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: As expected ensembles are tamer but I think some have some wintry members in there 12-14th or so. yeah, I was just having fun with the GGEM's "ominosity" ( did I just make up a new cool sounding word... nice). But in more practical terms, ...didn't we see an exotic solution from the GFS like this ... 4 or so days ago? It just really hearkens to the range of possibilities here. I posed a little quiz to the general audience but will give away the answer, just cuz we're talking about it - the defining difference here is that we're getting more actual western ridging in after region of these trough ejections. It's amazing how important that is in the total morphology down stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 I'd be excited if I lived in interior. TBlizz and I are probably looking at 6" of rain over the next 10-12 days. Its just too early down here without a cold airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: stop. you pulled the same BS last year. Come on now. Calling me a ‘puke’ for stating my opinion is ok though? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Man.. why are you stirring up controversy. At least 40/70 Benchmark brings some facts and puts in the effort on what the models are showing. Wrong place to come at someone who is probably one of the more grounded and brings factual posts to this forum. When you have something that explains your reasoning to differ..than post that, not insults. Again I just started my opinion in a post that had nothing to do with him and he called me a “puke”? That’s ok? That’s why I fired back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Calling me a ‘puke’ for stating my opinion is ok though? You are probably right that that is too much, but maybe you should look at yourself and how you choose to engage? I dunno, but Ray brings actual expertise, unlike me and probably you. But you throw shots at Mets, that's what I remember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 the weekend system definitely bears watching. peculiar setup, but good things can happen with a ULL and a strong HP to the north 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 On express lift /Sunapee. Made it down top to bottom pretty nicely . Not that bad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: On express lift /Sunapee. Made it down top to bottom pretty nicely . Not that bad Did you go pro it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Love the peanut gallery. They sit back and snide without adding anything but snark and memes. Hey, I do this. Don't be mean!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Pattern change is perpetually 11-15 days a way. Where have we seen that before? It's December 4th. Climo every single year says you are at least 11-15 days from a chance of a threat. If you are misinterpreting what everyone is saying when they are talking about nne and the interior, it's on you and no one else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the weekend system definitely bears watching. peculiar setup, but good things can happen with a ULL and a strong HP to the north Euro is coming in further south than the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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