40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2022 Author Share Posted December 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: It has felt like Groundhog day here the last week. Big blocking patterns set us up for this....we get lots of hype leading them, but the payoff is usually delayed. Add in that it's the start of the season and it's a perfect storm of angst.. especially considering we got screwed by the largest RNA on record last December. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Shameless plug and delete if I shouldn't do this..... If any of you know folks looking for a piano, I'm selling mine. https://worcester.craigslist.org/msg/d/westborough-piano-boston-by-steinway/7564510882.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Worry about your own game, plenty to keep you busy there. Man.. why are you stirring up controversy. At least 40/70 Benchmark brings some facts and puts in the effort on what the models are showing. Wrong place to come at someone who is probably one of the more grounded and brings factual posts to this forum. When you have something that explains your reasoning to differ..than post that, not insults. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 22 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This place gets scary when there's no snow falling. Rabbit hole of psychosis... haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies the EPS is really nice looking after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010 I believe a +EAMT would help if we can get another one or a few of them this winter. I heard flare-up in IO is having an influence on sensible weather also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I believe a +EAMT would help if we can get another one or a few of them this winter. I heard flare-up in IO is having an influence on sensible weather also. It would be nice to see a -WPO ...yeah. Seeing as everything is W--> E ( ultimately) and not -NAO controlled. haha. But I've been watching the eastern Asian/west Pacific for signs of a -WPO to help transmit a AB signal down through the N. Pacific Basin and we're not getting it as of the last month. It's interesting (then) that we are still getting episodic -EPO's in the models because the WPO caries a positive correlation with the EPO. +WPO wouldn't infer. I'm wondering if we are actually verifying these -EPOs though? that's a good question. In the general sense of things ... a better Pacific would help matters for winter enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 It’s been talked about a lot here, but another good thread (and image) highlighting where the ensemble uncertainty lies. 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice discussion by Will in here. I am happy we have a delay puts best chances in the magical ten days of Christmas and beyond. Ensembles look pretty damn good. My bar is still a warning level event and advisory event by the end of December and that’s still on the table IMO. If we do get threats and snowfall in the 20th-31st period, a lot of us will be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It would be nice to see a -WPO ...yeah. Seeing as everything is W--> E ( ultimately) and not -NAO controlled. haha. But I've been watching the eastern Asian/west Pacific for signs of a -WPO to help transmit a AB signal down through the N. Pacific Basin and we're not getting it as of the last month. It's interesting (then) that we are still getting episodic -EPO's in the models because the WPO caries a positive correlation with the EPO. +WPO wouldn't infer. I'm wondering if we are actually verifying these -EPOs though? that's a good question. In the general sense of things ... a better Pacific would help matters for winter enthusiasts. The eps has a +wpo and epo trending positive but hopefully we will get what we need to get the pacific in better shape because it don't look like the -ao/nao is having much luck unfortunately. I'm not as smart as you guys are with weather, but if the gefs is correct with the mjo progression, it's going to be a while before it gets where we want it. Something to think about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Nearly best track on 12/9-10 system but airmass is not servicing many this run BL torched past Berks Initially nevermind CP , flip to snow for S VT , Berks elevations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Nearly best track on 12/9-10 system but airmass is not servicing many this run BL torched past Berks Initially nevermind CP , flip to slow for S VT , Berks elevations Gfs is different once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Mitchy 2 bodies won’t like the gfs after posting his excitement on social media. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 May need the SOS savior after that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: May need the SOS savior after that run. Weird solution with the ocean storm backing in Another run another solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Weird solution with the ocean storm backing in Totally reasonable given blocking. By interior maybe I meant interior Canada. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 A foot of rain on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A foot of rain on the gfs? Until the next run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Until the next run If it’s not going to snow let’s get some flood and wind damage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: If it’s not going to snow let’s get some flood and wind damage. Cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 26 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: The eps has a +wpo and epo trending positive but hopefully we will get what we need to get the pacific in better shape because it don't look like the -ao/nao is having much luck unfortunately. I'm not as smart as you guys are with weather, but if the gefs is correct with the mjo progression, it's going to be a while before it gets where we want it. Something to think about You're on point... The MJO's behavior is (likely) because it is/has been in destructive interference against the La Nina basin footprint. The La Nina has been remarkably well -coupled this autumn. Personally, ( full disclosure ) I was optimistic that would not be the case (the La Nina part of it). Ha. It would be more loosely coupled, which is not unprecedented over the last 10 years of varying ENSO states ( much to the chagrin of those that are heavily ENSO reliant). The recent decadal history of that was a hopeful trend that we would not have this longitudinal flow structure coming into western N/A. It wasn't just that ...there is a growing body of transition season behavioral evidence for seasonal lapsing. We have observed early/late cool snaps capably of harboring actual snow events, as early as Octobers and as late as Mays, going back to 2000. This has - more or less to be determined causally - been coinciding with the acceleration of climate changing during these last 20 years. Whether that is so or not, a statistical oddity in the least, but it also played into the idea above. If seasonal lapse was causing W/NE N/A ridging early, while (perhaps) La Nina were vague --> ..etc. Neither seemed to materialize per that hope - I mean... it wasn't an 'expectation,' it really was hoping. Ah well... There is a statistical bases for 'early performing' La Nina winters. It's perhaps related to the fact that ENSO signals tend to decouple more so during summers, for obvious reasons related to planetary relaxation of gradient turning off triggers/dispersion mechanics...etc. So that does provide a narrow window for late Novie to early Jan ... but it's not dependable. It's just adding a little. That's not doing too well either LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Cmc Ray approved. DC blizzard and rains to maines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 MJO from what I saw a couple of days ago looked like it was emerging into the maritime continent and not really towards dateline until mid month. But that hasn’t changed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray approved. DC blizzard and rains to maines. That's a delicious cinema though.... the 246 frame would probably arrest breathing. Boy, the need more hot dog venders in the modeling core to encourage letting these kind of movie reals go out further. HAHA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Over a week above freezing in December would be pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's a delicious cinema though.... the 246 frame would probably arrest breathing I think some weenies may cease breathing if this keeps up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ray approved. DC blizzard and rains to maines. 12.2 rain in ORH. GFS op gone not gone wild but gone... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Good place to start. We can always go higher. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Good place to start. We can always go higher. That'll put a big dent in it t the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 Look how happy he is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Good place to start. We can always go higher. The cracks in the shovel full's would probably be the same color oh wait , is that rain? yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 4, 2022 Share Posted December 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Good place to start. We can always go higher. “You guys that wanted Stein and nice sunny weather all summer asked for this”… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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