weathafella Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But he(Will) said it doesn’t look like that currently. We all said that. But that isn’t the point. I thought about what qq said and realized that while not likely, it is plausible. We’ve seen it in the recent past. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Lots of mushrooms being ingested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, weathafella said: We all said that. But that isn’t the point. I thought about what qq said and realized that while not likely, it is plausible. We’ve seen it in the recent past. Orientation of the block would have to change pretty dramatically to set up a semi-perma ridge over the east that links up with the NAO block. We get the eastern ridge temporarily as the block is just starting to set up shop, but it quickly goes away because that block is oriented from like Iceland back into Davis strait which isn’t the way to blow up an eastern ridge. It forces PV lobes underneath when it’s oriented like that. It’s possible the orientation changes but that’s pretty doubtful considering the consistency and cross-guidance agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Another > +10 day in Mowvember Regional highs: PSM: 58 DAW: 58 PWM: 57 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of mushrooms being ingested. If you plant ice you're going to harvest wind 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: No 2015. U were sledding down Carruth on a trash can lid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 4 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This forum is like a reality shit show , it’s great . Fixed that for you. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Orientation of the block would have to change pretty dramatically to set up a semi-perma ridge over the east that links up with the NAO block. We get the eastern ridge temporarily as the block is just starting to set up shop, but it quickly goes away because that block is oriented from like Iceland back into Davis strait which isn’t the way to blow up an eastern ridge. It forces PV lobes underneath when it’s oriented like that. It’s possible the orientation changes but that’s pretty doubtful considering the consistency and cross-guidance agreement. The 18z op run was pretty wintry. I understand what you’re saying Will. But the orientation is exactly what we have to keep our eye on to ensure it holds. Right now things look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: The 18z op run was pretty wintry. I understand what you’re saying Will. But the orientation is exactly what we have to keep our eye on to ensure it holds. Right now things look good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 Eric Webb is a moron and not respected at all in the wx world . Just keep that tucked in back pocket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eric Webb is a moron and not respected at all in the wx world . Just keep that tucked in back pocket Yea but what about Earthlight? Keep this tucked in somewhere. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eric Webb is a moron and not respected at all in the wx world . Just keep that tucked in back pocket Weenie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 27, 2022 Share Posted November 27, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Weenie Earth lite is fine . Just that Webb doesn’t know wx Weenies root snow on even in bad patterns. Like you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Earth lite is fine . Just that Webb doesn’t know wx Weenies root snow on even in bad patterns. Like you I think you should judge the content of the post in and of itself, rather than allowing your opinion of the poster to bias how you perceive the information presented. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 It’s unlikely the NAO domain space collapses and merges in that way in late autumn early winter. That type of behavior is a spring phenomenon, as/when the wave lengths abruptly transition through the seasonal shortening - support washes out and the residual mass field settles south. April etc it can lend to one of those early 85/19 type T/DP red flag patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2022 Author Share Posted November 28, 2022 Game is on in my eyes....nothing more to say right now. Just a game of "think of as many ways it could go wrong as possible", as some sort of deranged defense mechanism. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Eric Webb is a moron and not respected at all in the wx world . Just keep that tucked in back pocket What about the other guy .. John Homenuk? I never heard of him. Not sure how credible he is? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: What about the other guy .. John Homenuk? I never heard of him. Not sure how credible he is? Earthlight has a good reputation and was a frequent poster here a few years back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: What about the other guy .. John Homenuk? I never heard of him. Not sure how credible he is? He is very well respected. Like me for example 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 I don’t know what to make of the 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Game is on in my eyes....nothing more to say right now. Just a game of "think of as many ways it could go wrong as possible", as some sort of deranged defense mechanism. Low blow man. We know each other long enough for you to know my motives. My original premise was that there were some hints. But I was pretty clear that things looked pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 If folks read the thread today , there is some good insight from the Mets , some is easy to follow , some a bit more challenging but the key take away is Will and Scott alluded they buying beers If there is not a a winter weather advisory in effect by the 12’th of December . Big cheers to them . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Low blow man. We know each other long enough for you to know my motives. My original premise was that there were some hints. But I was pretty clear that things looked pretty good. He gets rose colored glasses often times and caught up in verification of outlook. We hear for you Jer . Let’s see how things play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said: Fixed that for you. This is the best time of year , when the models start to show something promising during winter , but it’s far enough off in the distance that emotions start running wild for some , then others lose patience , thank goodness we have resident psychologist Tip. If he had a script pad I wonder what he would be dolling out . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s a pretty reasonable chance we don’t get any snow events through 12/13. That’s like a week (maybe not even) into the pattern change. 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: the key take away is Will and Scott alluded they buying beers If there is not a a winter weather advisory in effect by the 12’th of December . Big cheers to them . Hmmmm, is that what we got out of today’s posts? Hard to keep track . Everything looks good, it’ll be a painful waiting game for some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 My only point was…and Will backed it up, was that what QgOmega was talking about was a low probability. Sure Jerry, it could happen, but the chances are low currently, and that was my point, that he is a Troll…he always down plays and trolls everything. And If you want to input that possibility, there is a way to do it without making everybody else look like they’re wish-casting, which is what he was insinuating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This is the best time of year , when the models start to show something promising during winter , but it’s far enough off in the distance that emotions start running wild for some , then others lose patience , thank goodness we have resident psychologist Tip. If he had a script pad I wonder what he would be dolling out . By the end of the week, if ensembles shift even a little bit, we will get the first post saying “the pattern change always ends up being 10 more days away, I knew this would happen”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: By the end of the week, if ensembles shift even a little bit, we will get the first post saying “the pattern change always ends up being 10 more days away, I knew this would happen”. It’s almost unbearable cuz some just can’t understand what any of this means…just plain sad! But to hell with them. It’s game on(with regard to the pattern) no matter what QgOmega or any other troll says. And if it collapses into a dry cold dust bowl into the Midwest like Omega thinks, then I’ll be the first to congratulate him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Hmmmm, is that what we got out of today’s posts? Hard to keep track . Everything looks good, it’ll be a painful waiting game for some. I’m feeling like DIT lol , I have to sharpen up my skills 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted November 28, 2022 Share Posted November 28, 2022 Anyone know what year was the best December for snowfall for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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