December 2022 Obs/Disc

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Rainers to Mainers on the 9th and 12th on the gfs 

[greenmtnwx]

I know what you guys are saying but I think you need to pump the brakes a little on the it never snows in December train. It snowed plenty of times in November and especially the first half of December in the interior and the mountains at a minimum. Right now we aren’t even getting that and the ski season is off to a terrible start and not looking so great for the next 2 to 3 weeks. I know climo is trending in our favor but it’s not as if we’ve never had good winter weeks this time of year. And with the forecasted block that was coming and the pattern flip most were calling for it was looking like very soon we were going to be in a real, real solid pattern. That may come in a delayed manner but right now it’s not looking very good. At a minimum we are in the Christmas week now probably for anything on the coastal plain. And the mountains are looking to deal with at least a couple of cutters  before there’s any real chance. 

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I know what you guys are saying but I think you need to pump the brakes a little on the it never snows in December train. It snowed plenty of times in November and especially the first half of December in the interior and the mountains at a minimum. Right now we aren’t even getting that and the ski season is off to a terrible start and not looking so great for the next 2 to 3 weeks. I know climo is trending in our favor but it’s not as if we’ve never had good winter weeks this time of year. And with the forecasted block that was coming and the pattern flip most were calling for it was looking like very soon we were going to be in a real, real solid pattern. That may come in a delayed manner but right now it’s not looking very good. At a minimum we are in the Christmas week now probably for anything on the coastal plain. And the mountains are looking to deal with at least a couple of cutters  before there’s any real chance. 

It’s true too.  November 2018 set the record for snow depth and snowfall in the NNE mtns.  It was the only November to hit 40” at the Mansfield stake.  All glades skiable and open before Dec 1st.

The range of options is high this time of year.  Expectations can run from bare ground to full-on winter party.

[George001]

24 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I know what you guys are saying but I think you need to pump the brakes a little on the it never snows in December train. It snowed plenty of times in November and especially the first half of December in the interior and the mountains at a minimum. Right now we aren’t even getting that and the ski season is off to a terrible start and not looking so great for the next 2 to 3 weeks. I know climo is trending in our favor but it’s not as if we’ve never had good winter weeks this time of year. And with the forecasted block that was coming and the pattern flip most were calling for it was looking like very soon we were going to be in a real, real solid pattern. That may come in a delayed manner but right now it’s not looking very good. At a minimum we are in the Christmas week now probably for anything on the coastal plain. And the mountains are looking to deal with at least a couple of cutters  before there’s any real chance. 

That’s not really true, the models have been going back and forth but the H5 looks great on the ensembles for the 13th threat. There are a lot of indies taking the low down to the 970s and some to the 960s. The interior is favored for that one, but if the low gets that deep the coast could get a lot of snow as well. I agree that the 3rd week to 4th week is when the coast will start having better chances though.

[George001]

Though I wouldn’t mind seeing the epic pattern delay a couple more weeks, that would mean my area has a better shot in the early part of the pattern as well as later on.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

You can’t get much more boring for winter enthusiasts than that 0z gfs run. Rain, rain, dry, suppression, dry, etc etc 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Big time cutter that starts as some snow, especially north, on the 0z cmc at the end of the run

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

I know what you guys are saying but I think you need to pump the brakes a little on the it never snows in December train. It snowed plenty of times in November and especially the first half of December in the interior and the mountains at a minimum. Right now we aren’t even getting that and the ski season is off to a terrible start and not looking so great for the next 2 to 3 weeks. I know climo is trending in our favor but it’s not as if we’ve never had good winter weeks this time of year. And with the forecasted block that was coming and the pattern flip most were calling for it was looking like very soon we were going to be in a real, real solid pattern. That may come in a delayed manner but right now it’s not looking very good. At a minimum we are in the Christmas week now probably for anything on the coastal plain. And the mountains are looking to deal with at least a couple of cutters  before there’s any real chance. 

You’re in VT. Take an edible for Christ sake. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Rainers to Mainers on the 9th and 12th on the gfs 

Meh'.    Pattern has lots of storminess and the cold will eventually work out with regards to timing.

[TugHillMatt]

2 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

I know what you guys are saying but I think you need to pump the brakes a little on the it never snows in December train. It snowed plenty of times in November and especially the first half of December in the interior and the mountains at a minimum. Right now we aren’t even getting that and the ski season is off to a terrible start and not looking so great for the next 2 to 3 weeks. I know climo is trending in our favor but it’s not as if we’ve never had good winter weeks this time of year. And with the forecasted block that was coming and the pattern flip most were calling for it was looking like very soon we were going to be in a real, real solid pattern. That may come in a delayed manner but right now it’s not looking very good. At a minimum we are in the Christmas week now probably for anything on the coastal plain. And the mountains are looking to deal with at least a couple of cutters  before there’s any real chance. 

I see what you're saying. It's been yet another awful start here in Central NY too. Sure, Buffalo and Watertown lucked out, but for the rest of us in Upstate...yawn. When you move to a locale that generally (or used to be) is snowier, you expect winter to start arriving in November and early December. The past couple years, we have had to wait until January. Seems like we have to "thread the needle" in the interior much more now than in the past.

[brooklynwx99]

still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies

the EPS is really nice looking after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out

I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies

the EPS is really nice looking after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out

I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010

Good 0z runs

[moneypitmike]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I wish it did 

It should because we live in the north

All a matter of perspective.  Many would consider SNE the tropics NYC/LI even more so.

[greenmtnwx]

34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies

the EPS is really nice looking after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out

I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010

Stop following the EPS it’s terrible! Even the NWS has basically thrown in out in their recent discussion in favor of the American/Canadian blend. The EPS has been like throwing a dart. 

[NorEastermass128]

7 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You can’t get much more boring for winter enthusiasts than that 0z gfs run. Rain, rain, dry, suppression, dry, etc etc 

Welcome to the ‘80’s!  

[ORH_wxman]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies

the EPS is really nice looking after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out

I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010

Still a sizable difference in EPS vs GEFS. EPS looks a lot better both for 12/12 threat and then beyond that. GEFS eventually looks good but it’s taking a solid 3-4 days longer than EPS and even when it does get more favorable, it’s still not quite a good looking at EPS. 
 

GEPS (if we actually care about that suite) does look more like EPS than GEFS. So that’s a minor piece of support. 
 

The difference between EPS and GEFS def seems to be tropical forcing. GEFS brings it around MJO phases 4/5/6 before curling back into COD and maybe re-emerging near phase 7/8 (when the looks gets favorable again) while EPS basically keeps it in COD. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Stop following the EPS it’s terrible! Even the NWS has basically thrown in out in their recent discussion in favor of the American/Canadian blend. The EPS has been like throwing a dart. 

Dude lol

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still a sizable difference in EPS vs GEFS. EPS looks a lot better both for 12/12 threat and then beyond that. GEFS eventually looks good but it’s taking a solid 3-4 days longer than EPS and even when it does get more favorable, it’s still not quite a good looking at EPS. 
 

GEPS (if we actually care about that suite) does look more like EPS than GEFS. So that’s a minor piece of support. 
 

The difference between EPS and GEFS def seems to be tropical forcing. GEFS brings it around MJO phases 4/5/6 before curling back into COD and maybe re-emerging near phase 7/8 (when the looks gets favorable again) while EPS basically keeps it in COD. 

I agree. I'm just leaning on the EPS here since there's a ridiculous amount of variability and it has the most observations and the most members, so hopefully it can properly deal with all of the different solutions here. the GEFS has also been flopping around like crazy after day 8 or so while the EPS has remained consistent, so there's that

[greenmtnwx]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Dude lol

Dude what? The EPS has not been good. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Dude what? The EPS has not been good. 

And the gfs and gefs have ? 

Eps has been the most consistent. 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I agree. I'm just leaning on the EPS here since there's a ridiculous amount of variability and it has the most observations and the most members, so hopefully it can properly deal with all of the different solutions here. the GEFS has also been flopping around like crazy after day 8 or so while the EPS has remained consistent, so there's that

Yep the models are really struggling here.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

And the gfs and gefs have ? 

Eps has been the most consistent. 

I’d say GEFS overall have been better at diagnosing the pacific. But that’s for the Dec 6-10 period. It remains to be seen if they continue to do better beyond that. I think you could make a case for either way.
 

The EPS caught onto the magnitude of the Atlantic blocking before the GEFS did. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yup I am really struggling here.

We’ve noticed !

[MJO812]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’d say GEFS overall have been better at diagnosing the pacific. But that’s for the Dec 6-10 period. It remains to be seen if they continue to do better beyond that. I think you could make a case for either way.
 

The EPS caught onto the magnitude of the Atlantic blocking before the GEFS did. 

This is also true

Any model will struggle in the long range. The Pacific is the key here.

I don't care what anyone says . The PNA is the most important .

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is also true

Any model will struggle in the long range. The Pacific is the key here.

I don't care what anyone says . The PNA is the most important .

no, nothing is the most important in a vacuum. you can have a +PNA and still have an unfavorable winter pattern if there's low AK heights or a strong +NAO 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, nothing is the most important in a vacuum. you can have a +PNA and still have an unfavorable winter pattern if there's low AK heights or a strong +NAO 

Ya, I think given the large spacial dimension of the NAO, PNA etc you wanna avoid blanket statements that this plus this = that . 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

It definitely seems as if the GEFS has been flip flopping all over the place with the Pacific and the EPS has been more consistent with the December 13-20 period as Will and BrooklynWx said.  One worry as will said, the GEFS was the first to nail the Dec 6-10 period.  Considering EPS consistency recently you'd like to side with the EPS for the December 13-20 period..  Definitely a better vibe to the 00z runs than 12z yesterday, lets see if we can do it again at 12z today and get closer to next weekend with a good pattern to look forward to.  The good pattern is still kind of being pushed back to post day 10, I really want that to move up to day 7/8..  One small not technical thing I follow is all 3 ensembles were very snowy in the 10-15 day for the first time all year especially interior SNE on north..  

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya, I think given the large spacial dimension of the NAO, PNA etc you wanna avoid blanket statements that this plus this = that . 

We have been screwed by the PNA. Look at last December.

[UnitedWx]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The winter season officially starts December 21st for a reason.  Summer starts June 21st.  Climo lags behind solar.

We can hate it, but there is a reason why that is a thing.

But this is 2022! People just decide they want to define something differently and suddenly it has to be accepted en mass.... even in a weather forum 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

But this is 2022! People just decide they want to define something differently and suddenly it has to be accepted en mass.... even in a weather forum 

Very true but 99% in this forum average several inches of December snowfall per season, much more in the mountains.